Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Tuesday, May 31st (2022)
Memorial Day has come and gone, and with the calendar turning to June tomorrow, it is always a good time to re-evaluate the MLB standings and make conjectures of what is in store for the next four months. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, 87 of the 149 teams (58%) that held sole possession of first place on June 1 have gone on to win their division since 1995. With no second-place team in position to jump into first place at the end of today, that statistic roughly equates to three of the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Mets, Brewers, and Dodgers winning their divisions.
So which teams are primed to make a run and climb up the standings?
Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies ML
With each passing day, it seems the talk of Phillies manager Joe Girardi getting fired grows louder, and his days in that role may be numbered. With yesterday’s 5-4 Giants victory, Philadelphia is now 4-11 in its last 15 games and is seven games under .500 for the first time in over four seasons. San Francisco is still under .500 in its last ten games (4-6) but is 2-2 so far on this 10-game road trip, and it is fair to wonder if losing in extra innings on consecutive days will take its toll on the Phillies.
Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez (4-3, 4.74) has the worst WAR (0.3), K/9 rate (7.6), walk rate (19 in 43.2 innings), FIP (4.60), and xFIP (4.20) of all Philadelphia starters. Meanwhile, the Giants rank fourth with a .335 wOBA against left-handed pitching and tied for fourth with a 119 wRC+ against southpaws. Thus, the Giants are a great bet to get their eighth win in the last ten meetings with the Phillies.
Bet: San Francisco Giants ML (+110 at DraftKings)
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets O/U
The Nationals and Mets exploded for a combined 18 runs in yesterday’s series opener. While we are wary of the overreaction of backing the over again tonight, we also understand the toll that yesterday’s slugfest had on each team, mainly the Nationals.
Washington used four relievers after starting pitcher Erick Fedde threw 52 pitches and lasted just 1.1 innings. New York’s top-of-the-lineup was on fire last night, combining to go 8-for-13 with seven RBIs and five runs scored. They now take aim at Patrick Corbin (1-7, 6.30), who leads the National League in earned runs allowed (35), which follows a 2021 campaign where he also allowed the most earned runs (111), home runs (37), and had the most losses in the league (16).
Corbin is opposed by Trevor Williams (0-3, 4.37), who is only in the rotation because of injuries to their top three starters. Williams has not thrown more than four innings in any of his eight appearances, which means another heavy workload is in order for a Mets bullpen that ranks in the top ten in innings pitched over the last 14 days.
Bet: Nationals-Mets OVER 9 (-115 at DraftKings)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs ML
Most of the attention surrounding Milwaukee’s pitching staff centers around the “big three†of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta, especially when the latter two are healthy. However, tonight’s starter Eric Lauer (5-1, 2.31) ranks second among all Brewers starters in quality starts, ERA, WHIP (1.01), and strikeouts (55). Milwaukee’s moneyline odds are usually inflated when the more heralded Burnes and Woodruff take the mound, but Lauer remains an undervalued gem in the rotation.
Lauer tends to be burned by the long ball, as he has allowed seven home runs in 46.2 innings. However, he has not allowed a home run in any of his last 12 innings, and though the Cubs rank 13th in the league in home runs off left-handed pitching, we believe Lauer is riding too much momentum to worry about that tonight.
The Brewers are 7-1 in Lauer’s starts, with one of those wins being a 9-1 home victory over the Cubs on April 30. Given how dominant Milwaukee has been with Lauer toeing the rubber, it is hard not to get excited by what feels like more than reasonable moneyline odds.
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-140 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.