Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Wednesday, August 17th (2022)
Tuesday saw many unusual things happen betting-wise. Chicago’s Dylan Cease had a 14-game streak of starts allowing one or fewer earned runs snapped. The Marlins scored more than three runs for the first time in 16 games, and the Dodgers lost outright as underdogs, just the third time they were underdogs all season.
Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Chicago Cubs vs. Washington Nationals ML
At first glance, the Cubs are more than reasonable -140 moneyline favorites, given Washington’s struggles this year, especially against left-handed pitching. The Nationals have a .354 winning percentage (28-51) against right-handed starting pitchers and a .282 winning percentage (11-28) against southpaws. They now face Chicago’s Drew Smyly (5-6, 3.69), who has flown largely under the radar but is having a solid year. Smyly has the best command of the strike zone he ever has, as evidenced by his 5.6 BB%, which is on pace to be the lowest of his career. His ERA is a direct benefit, as the 3.69 is his second-lowest of five seasons, and his hard hit percentage (33.0%) is his lowest since 2016.
Washington is just 7-12 in games as underdogs of +125 or shorter. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 25-22 against teams under .500 and entered this series against Washington having won five consecutive series against teams with a losing record and going 10-4 in those games. Thus, we expect Chicago to be victorious again in today’s rubber match and to extend its streak to six straight series wins against losing teams.
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML (-140 at DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees O/U
When the Yankees’ bats are right, the lineup is among the most formidable in the majors. But when they are slumping, as they have been for much of the second half, they look full of holes and have no serious threats outside of Aaron Judge.
New York dropped another game to Tampa Bay last night, marking its 11th loss in the previous 13 games. The Yankees have been held to just three runs per game (39 total runs) in that span. And in the last seven days, New York ranks 30th among 30 teams in wRC+ (39), wOBA (.220), and slugging (.234).
With New York’s offense not a threat lately, we expect the best from Domingo German, as he knows he will likely not get a ton of run support. German has settled into a nice groove, pitching to a 2.25 ERA in three August starts.
The under has cashed in five of the last six meetings at Yankee Stadium between these teams and expect it to cash again tonight.
Bet: Rays-Yankees UNDER 8 (-110 at DraftKings)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: Diamondbacks Team Total O/U
The Diamondbacks have had Carlos Rodon’s (11-6, 2.95) number of late, as they have tagged him for nine earned runs in the last 11 innings, spanning two starts. However, Rodon has been much harder to score upon at Oracle Park, as he is 6-1 with a 1.89 ERA in ten home starts this season. In addition, he has struck out hitters at a rate of 12.6 K/9 in his home starts and has not lost a decision at home since May 21.
Rodon’s numbers are even more striking when isolating just the teams under .500 he has pitched against. He is 5-0 in seven home starts, with an ERA of 2.03 against teams with a losing record. In his last two such starts, he has allowed two runs on eight hits in 13 innings while striking out 17 and walking none. Thus, we like for him to throw at least six or seven solid innings and exact revenge on the Diamondbacks tonight.
Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks Team Total UNDER 2.5 Runs (+100 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.