Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Wednesday, August 31st (2022)
After Tuesday’s thrilling series opener between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, Major League Baseball better hope that those two teams meet in the NLCS. To prove how much the Mets could push the Dodgers in that series, a team on pace for 114 wins, New York is favored against Los Angeles tonight with Jacob deGrom on the mound.
Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians RL
The Guardians won us some money yesterday with a convincing 5-1 victory. Today, we are opting for the better value with their runline odds, as today’s pitching edge is just as decisive as yesterday’s was.
Cleveland’s bats did something not many offenses could do over the last week: knock out an Orioles starting pitcher early. Orioles starters entered yesterday’s game with a season-high five consecutive quality starts while pitching to a 1.30 ERA in that span. However, Cleveland tagged Spenser Watkins for five runs in just 4.2 innings, while Cal Quantrill and three relievers held the Orioles to just one hit, and Baltimore got just two runners in scoring position for the game. Just one team has scored more than four runs against Cleveland in the last 21 games, and no team has pushed a run across against its bullpen in over two weeks.
Triston McKenzie (9-10, 3.17) looks to follow Quantrill’s solid performance. As long as McKenzie can get out of the first inning unscathed, he should be fine, as all five earned runs allowed in his last two starts have come in the first inning.
Cleveland is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings between these teams and should win convincingly again tonight.
Bet: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Runs (+130 at DraftKings)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers ML
The Detroit Tigers have the AL’s second-worst winning percentage, but if it faced left-handed starting pitchers more often, they would not be in the basement of the AL Central. The Tigers are three games under .500 (16-19) against left-handed starting pitchers, while their .362 winning percentage (34-60) against right-handed starters is much worse in comparison.
Detroit faces an unimposing lefty in Seattle’s Marco Gonzales. His 4.82 xERA ranks fifth-worst of all qualified starting pitchers and suggests one should not be complacent simply looking at his 3.97 actual ERA. In addition, Detroit’s offense has been quietly good of late, ranking sixth in wRC+ (114) and the top ten in slugging (.414) and wOBA (.325) over the last 14 days.
Seattle is just 4-3 in Gonzales’ last seven starts, but they have averaged almost six runs per game of support in those four wins. Detroit is still 5-2 in the previous seven meetings between these teams and is a live underdog tonight.
Bet: Detroit Tigers ML (+140 at DraftKings)
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins O/U
If only Michael Wacha (9-1, 2.53) had been healthy for more than 16 starts, Boston might not be as far as nine games out of a playoff spot. Wacha is the only Red Sox starting pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA, and his 3.3 WAR and 1.03 WHIP also lead the team.
He is opposed by Minnesota’s rookie Joe Ryan (10-6, 3.65), who has an impressive 2.69 ERA at home this season. Ryan ranks in the 60th percentile or better in xBA, K%, and hard hit percentage.
The under is 6-2 in Boston’s last eight road games against teams with a winning record and is 13-4-1 in Minnesota’s last 18 overall against teams with a losing record. Thus, we expect another low-scoring game between these teams tonight.
Bet: Red Sox-Twins UNDER 8 (-110 at DraftKings)
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