Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Wednesday, May 11th (2022)
Yesterday, Justin Verlander was five outs away from becoming the third pitcher ever with four or more career no-hitters. His dominance on the mound helped us cash the under in the Astros-Twins game, and lifted us to another profitable 2-1 day. We would have gone 3-0, but one swing of the bat in the bottom of the ninth inning ruined our perfect day, as Aaron Judge’s walk-off three-run home run cashed the Yankees’ team total over.
Hours after Verlander’s near no-no, Angels rookie Reid Detmers threw the second no-hitter of the season against the Rays. Are we in store for others tonight?
Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds RL
The Milwaukee Brewers did not seem too enamored with the Cincinnati Reds’ mini two-game winning streak, their first of the 2022 season. Cincinnati earned its first winning streak with a 10-5 victory over Milwaukee on Monday night, but the Brewers quickly got back to their dominance of Cincinnati on Tuesday, winning 5-4. Just one week ago, the Brewers swept Cincinnati at home by a combined score of 34-12. And while Cincinnati used a power surge with three home runs in Monday night’s win, yesterday served as a reminder of how many holes the Reds lineup has, as they only had one run on four hits through seven innings.
As per usual, when the Brewers do not send Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff to the mound, we are getting good value on Milwaukee behind today’s starter, Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.42). Houser allowed four runs on seven hits in five innings in his last start against Cincinnati, but the Brewers still cruised to a 10-5 victory and have won Houser’s previous three starts. Houser now faces a Reds lineup without Mike Moustakas, who joined Joey Votto and Nick Senzel in COVID protocol yesterday.
Conversely, the Reds have been non-competitive in Vladimir Gutierrez’s (0-5, 8.86) five starts, losing by a combined 37-11 and covering the runline just once. Given those numbers, we are getting tremendous value with Milwaukee’s runline this afternoon.
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Runs (-125 at DraftKings)
Miami Marlins Team Total vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks lost 110 games last season (tied for the worst in the majors) but appear on the verge of a massive turnaround, thanks largely to their outstanding starting pitching. Merrill Kelly (3-1, 1.22) is a big reason for Arizona’s 17-14 start, as the team has won four of the five games in which Kelly toed the rubber. Arizona’s only loss with Kelly on the mound was when they provided him with zero run support against the Dodgers.
Kelly is coming off easily his best start of the season, as he was one out away from a complete-game victory against the Rockies. He threw 106 pitches and was given every opportunity to finish his masterpiece but was eventually pulled after allowing consecutive hits with two outs in the ninth inning.
Kelly faces a Marlins team that has scored more than three runs just once in the last six games and one that ranks 22nd in OPS in road games. The under is 4-0 in Kelly’s last four home starts, and we like his chances of limiting Miami’s offense in this matchup.
Bet: Miami Marlins Team Total UNDER 3.5 Runs (-105 at DraftKings)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants First Five Innings ML
There are few weak spots in a Giants pitching staff that ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, especially in a rotation that features budding stars like Carlos Rodon and Logan Webb. However, Alex Cobb (1-1, 4.80) is one Giants pitcher we are unafraid of opposing, as he has thrown just 15 innings in his four starts. Cobb’s 1.53 WHIP is the highest of any Giants starter, and San Francisco has allowed 23 runs as a team in his last two starts, both losses. Meanwhile, Colorado’s Chad Kuhl (3-0, 1.82) has been the team’s best starter this season. The under has cashed in each of his last five starts, and we expect him to limit the Giants offense while helping his team get out to an early lead this afternoon.
Bet: Colorado Rockies F5 Innings ML (+185 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.