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Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/29)

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While most Major League Baseball teams threw their aces yesterday on what was an exciting and action-packed Opening Day, Mother Nature forced several rainouts that pushed back some teams’ Opening Days to Friday. As such, we have identified a pitching mismatch between two National League teams where we have much more faith in one ace over another. We also offer two other best bets to lead us into the weekend.

Read on for our MLB best bets for Friday.

    Friday’s Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Milwaukee Brewers (-108) vs. New York Mets (-108) | O/U 7.5 (+100/-122) 

    The Milwaukee Brewers own a big starting pitching edge in this matchup as Freddy Peralta opposes the New York Mets’ Jose Quintana. Last year, Peralta totaled career-highs in starts (30) and innings pitched (165 2/3) and he finished with a strikeout rate over 30% (30.9%) for the fourth time in six seasons. His 33.6% whiff rate last season was the fifth-highest among all pitchers with a minimum of 750 swings (and his 11.6 K/9 were also the best in franchise history).

    Among all starting pitchers with a minimum of 50 starts since 2020, his K/9 rate ranks third, and he is in the top 11 in xwOBA, xFIP and WHIP. Meanwhile, Quintana threw just 75 2/3 innings last year. The Brewers started to rake against southpaws towards the end of last season, ranking 11th in wRC+ and ninth in OPS against left-handed pitchers from August 1 to the end of the regular season. Milwaukee should have even more success this year against southpaws with the addition of Rhys Hoskins.

    We were tempted to back Milwaukee on the first five innings moneyline but it also holds a distinct edge in the bullpen, which has us confident it will lock down the later innings en route to an Opening Day victory.

    Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-108)

    Atlanta Braves (-130) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+110) | O/U 7.5 (+100/-122) 

    The Philadelphia Phillies have knocked the Atlanta Braves out of the playoffs in back-to-back seasons but the Braves have been much better built for the regular season, winning 28 more games in that span than the Phillies, including 19 of the 32 head-to-head matchups. Braves ace Spencer Strider has by far the highest O/U on projected strikeouts (245.5) compared to any other starting pitcher in the league. While he and Zack Wheeler (today’s opposing pitcher) have the shortest two odds to win the National League Cy Young Award, we are siding with Strider and the Braves in this matchup.

    Strider is coming off a season where he led the league in win percentage (.800), strikeouts (281) and FIP (2.85). He faces a Phillies lineup that struck out at the 12th-highest rate against right-handed pitchers last season. Philadelphia is just 21-28 in its last 49 games as an underdog. While it may have the better rotation top to bottom, few (if any) National League pitchers are as talented as Strider, who has the league’s best offense backing him. Strider pitched to a 5.67 ERA over his final six regular-season starts last season after throwing a career-high in innings but we expect him to be fresh out of the gate this year.

    Pick: Braves Moneyline (-130)

    Pittsburgh Pirates (+116) vs. Miami Marlins (-136) | O/U 8 (-105/-115) 

    The Miami Marlins let one slip away on Opening Day, squandering a 5-2 lead after six innings, losing 6-5 in extra innings. However, we expect them to bounce back today after coming off a season in which they went 36-15 (.706) vs. bottom-10 scoring offenses, the best mark in MLB, per Inside Edge.

    A.J. Puk gets the ball for the Marlins, but this is not a bullpen game, as the pitcher who made 120 relief appearances over the last two seasons is now inserted into the starting rotation. Puk’s stuff was electric in spring training as he struck out 41% of all batters faced. He faces a Pirates lineup that had the fourth-worst slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers last season.

    Pick: Marlins Moneyline (-136)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.