Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday, October 3rd (2022)
We have been chomping at the bit every since last Thursday’s 2-0 day to get back into action this week. With 11 of the 12 playoff spots wrapped up and all but one division race clinched, most of the Major League Baseball games over these next three days will not have much riding on them. However, that also means there is good value to be had, as some teams with nothing to play for will still be overvalued by the oddsmakers.
Here are our best bets for Monday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins RL
Miami has been a bettor’s delight when Jesus Luzardo (3-7, 3.53) has toed the rubber, as the team is 3-14 in his 17 starts this season. That includes nine straight losses and 12 of 13. However, when he starts, the conundrum is whether or not to oppose him and the Marlins on the runline, as six of Miami’s last eight losses when Luzardo pitched have been by one run. However, this is one of the rare games on this 15-game slate where the outcome is meaningful for one of the teams, so we will back the motivated favorites against a team playing out the string.
Atlanta’s Bryce Elder (2-3, 2.76) faced the Marlins in consecutive starts in mid-August and early September and limited them to one run on five hits and 16 strikeouts in 13 combined innings. Miami is 30 games under .500 against teams with a winning record (third-worst in the NL), and we like the Braves to win big tonight as they draw closer to a division title.
Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Runs (+115 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics RL
This is a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions, an edge we cannot wait to exploit down the stretch. The Angels have outscored opponents by 22 runs during a seven-game winning streak (tied for the longest active streak in the majors). Meanwhile, Oakland has lost six of seven games and scored 12 runs in their losses. That streak includes being swept by the Angels in three games on the road last week, where Oakland totaled just six runs.
The A’s are batting just .161 and slugging .242 over the last seven days, with a .209 BABIP and microscopic .081 ISO. Thus, we expect Los Angeles’s Patrick Sandoval (6-9, 3.03) to improve his 2.11 ERA over his previous seven starts. In addition, his ERA, WHIP, OBA, and HR/9 ratio are all better on the road, and all trends point to him limiting this porous Oakland offense again en route to an easy win by at least two runs.
Bet: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 Runs (+100 at DraftKings)
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners Team Total
Mariners rookie George Kirby (8-4, 3.21) has only lost once in his previous 14 starts and has pitched to a 2.55 ERA in his last seven. In his only career start against Detroit, he held the Tigers scoreless over five innings and allowed just two hits while striking out five. Kirby is backed up by a bullpen that has pitched to a 3.31 ERA in the last 30 days and has allowed hard contact on just 26.9% of batted balls, well better than the league average.
Kirby does not allow free passes, as his 3.6% walk rate ranks in the 99th percentile in the league. While he does not miss many bats (17th percentile in whiff rate), he makes up for it with an xERA/xwOBA that ranks in the top quarter of the league. The under has cashed in 37 of Seattle’s 70 games following a loss, and we expect Kirby to do his part in keeping the scoring down in this one.
Bet: Detroit Tigers Team Total Under 2.5 Runs (-120 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.