Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday, September 19th (2022)
Two afternoon games between AL Central and AL West rivals give bettors a chance to make money early on today’s nine-game Major League Baseball slate.
Here are our best bets for Monday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians ML
Minnesota won for the first time in nine meetings against the Guardians and snapped a five-game losing streak in Cleveland with yesterday’s 3-0 victory. However, those that back the Twins today in this “coin-flip†game, as oddsmakers suggest, are tempting fate by opposing a historic streak.
Guardians starting pitcher Cal Quantrill (12-5, 3.51) is a perfect 12-0 in 31 career starts at Progressive Field. He has not lost a start since July 5, and his eight-game winning streak is the longest by a Cleveland pitcher since Mike Clevinger won ten straight in 2019.
Since the calendar turned to August, Quantrill has thrown at least six innings in seven of nine starts and allowed one or fewer earned runs in five. In addition, Quantrill has done a great job keeping the ball in the yard, with a 0.64 HR/9 rate, and that, along with his 2.82 FIP, is the best among all qualified Guardians starters over the last 30 days.
Minnesota’s Sonny Gray (8-4, 2.83) is a worthy adversary, but his 3.52 xERA suggests he has been fortunate. Gray’s 39.7% hard-hit percentage is also on pace to be the second-highest of his eight-year career.
The disciplined Guardians have the lowest strikeout percentage (18.1%) as a team in the majors and will not swing at many bad pitches today, considering Gray ranks in the 25th percentile in chase rate.
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML (-115 at DraftKings)
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves RL
Kyle Wright (18-5, 3.18) is the only pitcher with at least 18 wins this season and faces the team with the fewest amount of wins in the league. What could go wrong?
Wright is narrowing in on a rare 20-win season and has five wins in his previous seven starts. He won both of his starts against Washington this year, allowing five runs in 14 innings while striking out nine. He has also done a much better job keeping the ball in the yard of late, as he has gone three of his last four starts without allowing a home run.
Atlanta faces Washington’s Cory Abbott (0-2, 4.37), who is winless in six starts and has the second-worst BB/9 rate (4.85) and HR/9 rate (2.08) among all Nationals starters. His 3.73 xERA suggests he is in line for some positive regression, but it will not come today against the best offense he has faced all season.
Atlanta is 6-0 in Wright’s last six starts and has covered the runline in six of his last nine overall. Given the mismatch between these two teams, I would not put anyone off wagering on some of Atlanta’s alternate runlines as well.
Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Runs (-155 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.