Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday, October 13th (2022)
After the two National League games took centerstage yesterday, the two American League Division Series games get the spotlight today. Will the two underdogs even the series, or will the Houston Astros and New York Yankees inch closer to another meeting in the ALCS?
- MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Playoffs No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions
Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros ML
The Astros went 12-7 in the regular season against the Mariners with a +8 run differential. However, through the first four innings of Game 1, it looked like Seattle was taking advantage of a rusty Astros team that had five days off. Seattle jumped out to an early 6-2 lead and pounded Houston ace Justin Verlander for six earned runs on ten hits over four innings.
Seattle had Houston down to its final strike and last out on two different occasions before Yordan Alvarez's walk-off three-run home run broke its hearts. Will the Mariners be able to recover emotionally from that crushing loss?
The Astros won their first postseason game when trailing by more than one run after eight innings after losing each of the 48 previous such games. That is a tough pill to swallow for Seattle, but it can find solace in sending its best pitcher to the mound today.
Luis Castillo was nasty against right-handed hitters in the regular season. While righties hit .217 compared to .206 for lefties against Castillo, his WHIP against righties was six points lower (1.06 compared to 1.12), and he induced many ground balls, with a 1.51 GO/AO ratio. That will come in handy against Houston's right-handed dominant lineup.
Bet: Seattle Mariners ML (+140 at DraftKings)
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Team Total O/U
The Guardians do not have the most intimidating lineup, and the Yankees have a clear advantage from a power standpoint. Per Katie Sharp, the Yankees’ +127 home run differential over the Guardians is the second-largest difference in regular season home runs between teams in any postseason matchup in MLB history.
And while Cleveland’s lineup already struggled from a power standpoint, it has an even larger vulnerability when facing southpaws. The Guardians slashed .239/.303/.343 with a below-average wOBA and wRC+ in the regular season against left-handed pitching. Now they face New York’s Nestor Cortes, who went 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA in the regular season. Cortes ranked in the 85th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, and xERA/xOBA. Look for Cortes to stymie the Guardians tonight.
Bet: Cleveland Guardians Team Total Under 2.5 Runs (+100 at DraftKings)
Bet $5, Win $200 on Any MLB Moneyline
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section - including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes - or head to more advanced strategy - like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor - to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.