Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday, September 15th (2022)
Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins ML
Bettors that have faded the Marlins, especially in the second half of the season, have made a lot of money regarding their team total odds. David Bearman of ESPN is one of the highest-profile advocates of such wagers and has been tracking Miami’s offensive deficiencies for some time.
The Marlins have been held to three or fewer runs in 37 of their last 43 games since July 30 and are 11-32 in that span. Thus, it is unsurprising that the Marlins are ranked dead-last with a slash line of .203/.270/.321 and the 30th-ranked wRC+ (69) in that time.
Philadelphia’s Noah Syndergaard (9-9, 4.09) is next up to pad his statistics against a slumping offense. Syndergaard’s .778 winning percentage (7-2 record) and 2.30 ERA are each best among all NL East opponents, and just one current Marlins hitter with at least six career at-bats against him has higher than a .208 batting average.
Philadelphia has won five consecutive road meetings with Miami and is 10-2 in the last 12 head-to-head matchups overall. Thus, we trust Syndergaard will improve his impressive numbers against a slumping division rival, which makes these relatively short moneyline odds all the more appealing.
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-135 at DraftKings)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Alternate RL
Though the standard runline option is laying -1.5 runs with a favorite, one can return much better value on the alternate runline if they think one team is likely to go on to a dominating victory. We have a great candidate for that in this NL Central matchup, as the Cardinals look for their tenth win in the 15th matchup this season against the Reds.
Cincinnati is in freefall, having lost five consecutive games. Cincinnati’s splits in games against teams over .500 and under .500 are startling. The Reds are 28 games under .500 against teams with a winning record but are 31-33 against teams under .500. However, Cincinnati totaled just eight runs in a four-game losing streak to a sub-.500 Pirates team, which does not have us confident about its chances to be competitive against one of the National League’s best teams.
St. Louis is 6-1 in its last seven home meetings against the Reds, and has covered the runline in 55.1% of their games as home favorites overall. Miles Mikolas (11-11, 3.42) looks to start the positive momentum for this series against a Reds offense that ranks 89th in wRC+ and 28th in hard-hit percentage (26.4%) over the last 14 days. Meanwhile, Chase Anderson (0-3, 9.00) is facing the Cardinals for the third time in three weeks, and St. Louis has scored eight runs off him in 2.1 combined innings. St. Louis won those two games by a combined score of 18-7 and should be in line for another big victory.
Bet: St. Louis Cardinals Alternate RL -2.5 Runs (+120 at DraftKings)
Bet $5, Win $200 on Any MLB Moneyline
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.