Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday, September 20th (2022)

A 2-0 day yesterday got our positive momentum going for the week, and we are back with three plays from today’s loaded 16-game slate.

Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays F5 O/U

Oddsmakers expect Tampa Bay southpaw Shane McClanahan (12-5, 2.13) to pitch well today, as evidenced by the Astros being road underdogs for just the 17th time this season. McClanahan is making just his second start since returning from the IL. Though he held Toronto scoreless on three hits over five innings last time out, the southpaw was limited to just 69 pitches, which is the biggest reason we are opting for the first-five innings under instead of the full-game total.

We expect Houston’s Cristian Javier (9-9, 2.87) to match zeros with McClanahan early, as he has a minuscule 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his previous seven outings. The under is 22-8-2 in the last 32 meetings between these teams, and these two pitchers will make sure this game starts as a pitchers’ duel.

Bet: Astros-Rays F5 Under 3 Runs (-105 at DraftKings)  

Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds O/U

The series opener between the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds offers us a glimpse into the future, as Boston’s No. 3 ranked prospect Brayan Bello (1-6, 5.10), faces Cincinnati’s No. 2 prospect Nick Lodolo (4-6, 3.81).

Bello’s numbers do not jump off the page, but he is doing his best to make up for putrid early season numbers and show he could be a dependable piece of the rotation in the future. The following are the total combined runs in his last seven appearances since July 29: 8, 5, 8, 6, 5, 7, 5. Though Bello has earned just one win in that span, he has pitched to a 2.97 ERA, and his 3.77 xERA overall suggests he was due for this positive regression.

Lodolo has similarly flashed signs of brilliance. He has pitched to a 3.25 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his last seven starts and has made quality starts in five of his previous six. He is ranked in the 75th percentile or better in xSLG, xBA, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage and should quiet Boston’s bats tonight.

The under is 4-1-1 in Cincinnati’s last six games against teams under .500 and is 4-1-1 in the previous six meetings in Cincinnati between these teams overall. Thus, these two promising young pitchers will ensure the under cashes again.

Bet: Red Sox-Reds Under 8.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings)  

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies ML

San Francisco is playing nothing like the team that won an MLB-best 107 games last year, as it is 9-20 in its previous 29 road games and has won just six of its last 30 games against division rivals. In addition, the Giants’ recent moves bring into question if they are playing out the string for the rest of the season, calling up outfielder Heliot Ramos and pitcher Sean Hjelle and shutting down southpaw Alex Wood for the season. However, with Carlos Rodon (13-8, 2.84) on the mound, Giants backers are assured they will get a quality performance from the man who has been their best pitcher all season.

Rodon’s stuff has been electric lately, recording double-digit strikeouts in four of his previous six starts. He has also allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts and recorded a 0.94 WHIP over his last seven. Rodon ranks in the 85th percentile in whiff percentage, xBA, xSLG, and strikeout percentage, and his 2.69 xERA suggests he has been even better than advertised.

The Rockies lead all National League teams with a .307 BABIP at home. But with Rodon missing bats at an elite clip, Giants backers won’t have to worry about Colorado putting balls in play too often.

Bet: San Francisco Giants ML (-145 at DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.