Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday, October 19th (2022)

by Mike Spector |
Oct 19, 2022

Major League Baseball takes centerstage on Wednesday with both LCSs in action. We have two fascinating matchups, as the Phillies and Padres each got hot at the right time and are fighting for World Series berths despite each winning fewer than 90 regular-season games. In addition, the Yankees and Astros compete in yet another ALCS and the first since the controversial cheating scandal.

Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres O/U

Padres starter Blake Snell lasted just 3 1/3 innings in the Wild Card start against the Mets and was undone by six walks, but he limited the damage to just two earned runs. He followed that up with a solid performance against the Dodgers, holding them to one run and five hits over 5.1 innings in a 2-1 victory. However, his propensity to lose command of the strike zone is not ideal against a Phillies lineup that has hit so well with runners on base this entire postseason.

Snell has limited the Phillies to a .190/.342/.419 slash line. If he can give the team five solid innings, San Diego has a massive bullpen edge. San Diego’s relievers combined for a 12th-ranked xFIP (3.84) versus Philadelphia’s 19th (3.98) with an ERA almost a half-run lower.
Of all four playoff teams remaining, the Phillies’ OPS is the highest. Philadelphia ranks 9th in wRC+, 6th in wOBA, and 15th in hard-hit contact against righties since the beginning of August. However, against lefties in that span, those numbers improve to third in wRC+ and wOBA and fourth in hard-hit percentage.

The Over is 22-10 in the last 32 meetings in San Diego between these teams, and we like that trend to continue in Game 2.

Bet: Phillies-Padres Over 7 Runs (+100 at DraftKings)

New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros RL

The Yankees sent the Guardians to their eighth consecutive loss in a winner-take-all postseason game (the second-longest streak in postseason history). But, somewhat curiously, they celebrated with beer and champagne in the clubhouse instead of getting right on their plane to Houston. Thus, it would not be surprising to find the Yankees a little sluggish today with no off days in between after Monday’s initially scheduled Game 5 was rained out.

The Astros are in their sixth consecutive ALCS, so one has to be intrigued by them from an experience standpoint. Ace Justin Verlander will look to rebound from allowing six earned runs in Game 1 of the ALDS, matching the most he has ever allowed in a postseason game. Sixteen of New York’s 20 runs this postseason have come via home run, but Verlander’s 0.6 HR/9 rate this season was the lowest of his career. If anyone will allow the long ball today, it is Jameson Taillon, who allowed six earned runs on two three-run home runs in his only start against the Astros this season.

Bet: Houston Astros -1.5 runs (+115 at DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday, October 19th (2022)

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