Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday, October 5th (2022)
Aaron Judge broke the American League home run record with his 62nd home run yesterday, and the Atlanta Braves wrapped up the last division race, with all 12 playoff teams set. Thus, the last day of the regular season will not have as much drama as in years past, but it still gives bettors plenty of opportunities to make money. Be sure to get your bets in early, as every game played today is in the 4:00 p.m. ET window.
Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics RL
Even though Aaron Judge flirted with a Triple Crown this year, many MVP voters will still likely name Shohei Ohtani (15-8, 2.53) atop their ballots, given how historically unique and dominant his hitting and batting skills are. Thus, Ohtani takes the mound with one last chance to make for his MVP case over the home run king.
The Angels ace has a minuscule 1.43 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last seven starts, with five wins in that span. His previous start was against these very Athletics when he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. He finished with eight scoreless innings, allowing two hits and striking out ten.
Ohtani has not allowed an extra-base hit in his last 22.1 innings and no home runs in his previous 44, spanning six starts. He has allowed just two earned runs in 19.2 combined innings against Oakland this year (0.94 ERA) and will be why the Angels end the regular season in grand style.
Bet: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 Runs (-140 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox ML
The White Sox arguably win the title of the most disappointing team this year, as they went from favorites to win the AL Central to potentially finishing in second place to Cleveland by double-digits. However, Chicago’s starting pitcher toeing the rubber tonight could give the franchise a ray of hope entering next season that he can be a valuable member of the rotation.
Chicago’s Davis Martin (3-5, 3.65) opposes Minnesota’s Louie Varland (0-2, 4.71). The Twins have had much better success against southpaws than right-handed starting pitchers (27-22 vs. lefties, 50-61 versus righties). Chicago is 3-1 in Martin’s last four starts, including when he held Minnesota scoreless over five innings on three hits in a 4-3 win on September 2.
Martin has done a great job keeping the leadoff man off the basepaths, retiring the leadoff hitter in his previous ten innings. And he may not have to deal with Minnesota’s Luis Arraez in this game, who has been held out of multiple games down the stretch.
Bet: Chicago White Sox ML (-140 at DraftKings)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers O/U
With the Diamondbacks and Brewers eliminated from playoff contention, look for some regular starters to be absent from the lineup today. That will make life offensively even more difficult against two solid starting pitchers in Merrill Kelly (13-8, 3.43) and Corbin Burnes (12-8, 2.98). Milwaukee starting pitchers lead the league in strikeout rate (22%) over the last 14 days, which should only increase today with its best pitcher on the mound.
Burnes has also shown an innate ability to pound the strike zone, especially against left-handed hitters. He has not issued a walk to a lefty in any of the last 70 plate appearances, the longest such streak in the majors (per Inside Edge).
On the other side, Kelly’s xBA (.229), xSLG (.384), wOBA (.307), xwOBA (.320), and xERA (3.62) are all the best of his career. Thus, we expect him to match zeros with the defending NL Cy Young Award winner.
Bet: Diamondbacks-Brewers Under 7 (-125 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.