Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday, September 14th (2022)
A perfect 3-0 day yesterday has us looking to keep the momentum going with our mid-week picks.
Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago White Sox Team Total O/U
Now that Houston’s Justin Verlander has been on the IL with a calf injury for the last two weeks, that has benefitted Dylan Cease’s case to win the American League Cy Young Award. Cease (14-6, 2.06) entered yesterday as the -140 favorite at DraftKings, and with the hardware in mind, we look for him to pitch as a man possessed down the stretch.
It looked like Cease’s impressive season would spiral down the stretch when he had a two-game stretch in mid-August, allowing seven earned runs in 10.1 innings over two starts. However, since then, Cease has returned to the pitcher with a sub-2.00 ERA on August 11. He enters this start on a 15-inning scoreless streak and has allowed just two earned runs in his last 23 innings.
Cease has given up just six hits in that 23-inning stretch, with the only damage run-wise coming on two solo home runs. Colorado has hit a league-low 40 home runs on the road this season, eight fewer than the next lowest total. In addition, Colorado ranks 26th in wRC+ over the last 14 days.
The Rockies will likely have to string hits together to do any damage against Cease today, and he has shown nothing over the last three starts to suggest that is possible.
Bet: Colorado Rockies Team Total Under 2.5 Runs (+100 at DraftKings)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants O/U
Atlanta has succeeded as shorter moneyline favorites, going 13-8 in its last 21 games with -140 moneyline or shorter. However, if the Braves are going to win this series finale against San Francisco, it likely will not come as part of a shootout, especially with the way Carlos Rodon (12-8, 2.93) has been pitching.
Carlos Rodon (12-8, 2.93) is 0-2 in his last three starts but has been a hard-luck loser as he has posted double-digit strikeouts in his last two starts and four of his previous five. Rodon’s xERA of 2.74 is better than his actual ERA, and he ranks in the 84th percentile or better in whiff percentage, xBA, xSLG, and strikeout percentage.
Opposing Rodon is Charlie Morton (8-5, 4.08), who has been a catalyst for Atlanta’s MLB-best 24-7 record since August 9. Morton has not lost a decision (3-0, 3.40 ERA in seven starts) since the calendar turned to August. He has also been much better in day games than night games this season, pitching to a 3.62 ERA and .204 OBA in 12 day starts versus a 4.46 ERA and .244 OBA in 15 night starts.
The under is 9-3-1 in the previous 13 meetings in San Francisco between these teams, and we expect another pitcher’s duel today.
Bet: Braves-Giants Under 7.5 Runs (-125 at DraftKings)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals O/U
Baltimore’s once realistic playoff chances are fading fast, with a slumping offense to blame. The Orioles have lost six of their last nine games to fall five games out of a wild-card spot and totaled just 12 runs in their previous five.
Baltimore ranks 29th in the league in wRC+ over the last 14 days, with a meager collective stat line of .210/.281/.360 in that span. And despite Patrick Corbin’s (6-18, 6.30), he has managed to post an ERA below 4.00 through two September road starts against two of the N.L.’s best offenses (Mets and Phillies).
On the other side, Baltimore’s Tyler Wells (7-6, 3.91) has a 7.7% barrel percentage, much improved from his 11% rate last year. He also has a strong strike zone command, as his walk rate ranks in the 70th percentile.
The under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams and has cashed in each of Baltimore’s last nine road games. We expect those trends to continue.
Bet: Orioles-Nationals Under 8.5 Runs (-115 at DraftKings)
Bet $5, Win $200 on Any MLB Moneyline
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.