Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday, September 28th (2022)
The New York Yankees clinched the AL East with last night’s win over the Toronto Blue Jays. So will manager Aaron Boone give Aaron Judge the day off after the celebration, or will he pencil his slugger into the lineup as he continues his quest to set the American League home run record?
Here are our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets RL
The Miami Marlins have lost 90+ games for the fourth consecutive season (not including the shortened 2020 campaign). In addition, they just recently announced they would mutually part ways with manager Don Mattingly at the end of the season. Thus, we will side with the desperate in a heated battle for an all-important division title while the Marlins are playing out the string.
Miami has been a bettor’s delight when Jesus Luzardo (3-7, 3.57) has toed the rubber, as the team is 3-13 in his 16 starts this season. That includes eight straight losses and 11 of 12.
The Mets are 7-3 in their last ten games and are 29 games over .500 against teams with a losing record this year. New York is also 28-12 in its previous 40 home games against the Marlins and 45-19 in its last 64 games against teams with a losing record. We expect the Mets to improve both of those records tonight.
Bet: New York Mets -1.5 Runs (+110 at DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians ML
The Guardians are 18-4 in their last 22 games, and just had a seven-game winning streak snapped that was the franchise’s longest since June 2018. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay still has eight more road games to finish the regular season, so securing a wild-card playoff spot will not be easy. But the Rays will get an emotional lift from Tyler Glasnow’s season debut, even though manager Kevin Cash said he would be limited to roughly 45 pitches.
The Rays have always had a deep stable of relievers recently, and that strength will be on full display in this matchup. Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranks seventh with a 3.13 ERA over the last 30 days, and its 3.75 xFIP compared to a 3.92 FIP suggests their relievers are due for some positive regression.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is 4-0 in Triston McKenzie’s (11-11, 3.04) last four starts. Still, none of those starts were against teams currently over .500. McKenzie has been fortunate to post the numbers he has given that he ranks in the 18th percentile in hard-hit percentage and eighth percentile in barrel percentage. That is a big reason for his 3.72 xERA, which suggests some regression is imminent to conclude the regular season and into the playoffs.
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML (+105 at DraftKings)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros O/U
Astros ace Justin Verlander (17-4, 1.82) is chasing history in this start, as he is looking to become just the 12th pitcher since 1995 (excluding the 2020 shortened season) to finish the regular season with a sub-2.00 ERA. More impressively, he would be the third AL pitcher to achieve that mark in that span, joining Pedro Martinez (1.74 in 2000) and Blake Snell (1.89 in 2018). It would be a daunting task, but eight scoreless innings in this start would lower his ERA to 1.73, breaking Martinez’s record.
The pitcher on the other side already etched his name in the Diamondbacks’ record books, as Zac Gallen (12-3, 2.46) had a stretch of 44.1 consecutive scoreless innings this year, a franchise record. Gallen has pitched to a 1.16 ERA over his last seven starts, has 11+ strikeouts in two of his previous three, and has allowed four or fewer hits in nine consecutive starts. We expect him to neutralize the red-hot Yordan Alvarez (.413 avg, 6 HR, 13 RBI in the previous 13 games before yesterday) and match zeroes with Verlander.
Bet: Diamondbacks-Astros Under 6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.