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Top MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, September 2nd (2021)

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With just eight games on today’s slate, there are just two that involve teams where both are likely playoff-bound. We have identified a creative wager with a team total in one of those games and go back to the well with a home run prop. After correctly predicting Vladimir Guerrero’s homer on Tuesday night, we use similar data to indicate another one is likely from a player that has hit for power all season, but one that many fans do not fully appreciate.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Thursday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 153-126-7 (+11.58 units) 

Milwaukee Brewers Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-125)

The San Francisco Giants are at a critical juncture in their season, as recent poor play combined with the Los Angeles Dodgers’ hot streak has tightened things up in the NL West. The Giants have lost five of their last six games, and the Dodgers have gained three games in that span to move a half-game ahead in the standings. The Giants need a win in the worst way possible today, not only to keep pace with the Dodgers, but to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers. Wagering on San Francisco’s moneyline or runline odds is risky considering how poorly they have played, but starting pitcher Logan Webb should be counted on to throw a good game. 

With Kevin Gausman likely to earn Cy Young votes this year, oddsmakers have recently reflected his brilliance in the odds involving his starts. However, it does not appear as if the market has caught up yet with teammate Logan Webb’s sensational season. Webb (8-3, 2.65) remains a vastly underrated piece of San Francisco’s rotation but is likely to get a lot of attention in the next couple of starts as he attempts to help fill the void created by the absences of Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto. While the Brewers are a formidable opponent, we eschew San Francisco’s moneyline odds and back Webb’s ability to keep the Brewers off the scoreboard.

Webb has not lost a start since May 5 and is 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last seven outings. This season, he has been sensational at Oracle Park, going 5-0 with a 1.71 ERA in nine home appearances (eight starts). Webb has six or more strikeouts in five consecutive starts and is trying to track down New York’s Gerrit Cole, who leads the majors with 11 such consecutive starts. Webb earned a hard-luck no-decision against the Brewers in a road start on August 6, when he allowed one earned run in just three hits over six innings. His nine strikeouts that day were one off of his season-high. 

Webb has not allowed an extra-base hit in his last eight innings. Three starts ago, he threw a gem against the Mets in which he recorded 21 of his 22 outs via groundout or strikeout. In his last start, Webb became the first Giants pitcher to have a three-pitch inning since Madison Bumgarner in 2010 (per SF Giants on NBCS on Twitter). These are just a few examples of how electric Webb’s stuff is and how dominant he can be. The Giants desperately need a pitcher outside of Kevin Gausman to step up amid some illness concerns in their starting rotation, and Webb has all the tools to be that guy.

The under is 7-0 in Webb’s last seven starts as a home favorite and is 8-0 in his previous eight home starts overall. These trends have us confident that he will throw a gem this afternoon.

Brandon Lowe To Hit a Home Run (+400)

If I posed the question, “which is the only Tampa Bay Rays hitter who ranks in the top ten in home runs hit this year?” many would respond with Nelson Cruz. However, the answer is Brandon Lowe, who often gets overlooked as a vital part of this Rays offense. Lowe’s 31 home runs are eighth-best in the majors, and he is two behind Toronto’s Marcus Semien for most home runs by a second baseman. Lowe already got his team going with a home run in Monday’s series opener against the Red Sox, and we like his chances of going deep again.

Lowe is 4-for-11 with three home runs against Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez (10-7, 5.12). Five of Lowe’s seven outs against Rodriguez have also come via strikeout, but that is encouraging as it suggests Lowe takes an “all or nothing” approach at the plate against Boston’s lefty. Lowe has homered five times in his last 15 games and nine times in his previous 30. Thus, that implies that he does not go long stretches without going deep. Lowe has a .364 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers vs. a .561 slugging percentage against righties entering last night’s game. Still, those concerns are eradicated against Rodriguez, given the success he has had against him.

Rodriguez has allowed multiple home runs in two of his last four road starts. Given how the Rays have swung the bat lately, many of their hitters are great candidates to take Rodriguez deep, with Lowe being our most likely.

MLB Prop Bets


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.