Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/5)
We’ve got a massive 15-game slate on the MLB board today, including 10 games that start earlier than 4:00 pm ET.
With so much to choose from, I’ve narrowed down my best bets to just two. Here are my top two MLB picks for today’s slate of games.
Sunday’s Best MLB Picks
Here are our top MLB picks for Sunday’s slate of baseball action.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel | All wagers are for 1 unit
Miami Marlins @ Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics are going for the sweep against the Miami Marlins. After the Luis Arraez trade and the absolute domination from the Athletics in yesterday’s game, it’s obvious the Marlins are the league’s worst MLB team.
Miami’s projected lineup has hit a .132 ISO and wOBA of .288 since last season against righties. It’s also struck out 23.5% of the time and has walked only 6.6%. Without Arraez, the lineup looks way worse now.
That said, the Marlins will take on Joe Boyle of the Athletics. While Boyle has a high ERA, he’s still limited teams to a .112 ISO and has allowed only 23.3% of fly balls to his first 122 batters. In addition, Boyle has added 23% of strikeouts, including 26.1% against righties.
Boyle’s not nearly as bad as his ERA might suggest. Positive regression against the Marlins is certainly in play.
On the other hand, the Marlins will pitch Sixto Sanchez. Sanchez has only struck out 13.6% of batters to begin the year, allowing a .250 ISO and wOBA of .564 to his first 23 lefties.
The Athletics should have half of the lineup hitting left-handed, including J.J. Bleday, Seth Brown, and Abraham Toro, who have all hit righties with power since last season.
Oakland can get above .500 with a win tonight. You know we’ve got to bet on them here!
Bet: Athletics (-126)
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Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
The Orioles will throw Dean Kremer for today’s matchup against the Reds. Kremer has struggled with extra-base hits to begin the season, allowing a .217 ISO to his first 140 batters. He’s given up a .259 ISO to lefties and a .183 ISO to righties. Ultimately, Kremer has been way worse against lefties, adding only 14.1% of strikeouts to lefties this season.
That’s good news for the Reds, who will likely have more lefties than righties in their lineup tonight. The Reds have hit a .203 ISO and wOBA of .339 against righties since last year using their projected lineup. While the Reds also strike out at a high rate against righties, Kremer isn’t much of a threat to add a high amount of strikeouts.
Kremer is in line to compete against lefty Nick Lodolo of the Reds. Lodolo has outshined Kremer with 32.6% of strikeouts. He’s also added a .082 ISO and wOBA of .238 with 6.3% of walks and 48.1% of ground balls.
While the Orioles have hit above-average against lefties, Lodolo isn’t your average lefty pitcher. The Orioles figure to strike out at a higher rate as the team has already struck out 23.6% of the time against lefties since last season, using the projected lineup.
Therefore, we’ll ride the Reds at home at -112.
Bet: Reds ML (-112)