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Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/17)

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A loaded 15-game Major League Baseball slate is on tap for Wednesday, and with 12 of the 15 games played in the afternoon window, bettors should be sure to get their wagers in early to take advantage of the day’s action.

Read on for our MLB best bets for Wednesday.

    Wednesday’s Best MLB Bets

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    San Francisco Giants (-112) vs. Miami Marlins (-104) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115) 

    Miami Marlins southpaw A.J. Puk had his regularly scheduled start on Monday pushed back to today because of illness, so it is likely he could still be dealing with some after effects. However, Puk has not inspired much confidence of any sort so far this year, allowing 10 runs (seven earned) and walking 14 batters over 10 2/3 innings. Perhaps Miami’s transitioning of Puk to a starting role from the bullpen was a little premature given his command issues, but the Marlins have little choice but to keep trotting Puk out to the mound every fifth day as they deal with a slew of injuries to starting pitchers.

    San Francisco so far has used offseason additions like Jorge Soler to hit left-handed pitching much better than last year, as the Giants rank eighth in wRC+ and fifth in BABIP and seventh in slugging against southpaws this year. They should provide enough offense for ground ball specialist Keaton Winn (he ranks in the 91st percentile in ground ball rate) to hold down a Miami offense that has gone over its team total in 38 of its last 71 home games entering Tuesday. And while the Giants were 6-28 SU (-26.55 units, -64% ROI) in their last 34 road games, there is still value on their moneyline odds in this series finale.

    Pick: Giants Moneyline (-112)

    Atlanta Braves (-138) vs. Houston Astros (+118) | O/U 9 (-110/-110) 

    With the news that ace Spencer Strider will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair the UCL in his right elbow, more will be demanded and expected from Atlanta Braves southpaw Max Fried to make up for his absence.

    Fried started the season with two awful starts against the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks, as he allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over five innings. The only saving grace in that span was Fried’s 10.80 K/9 rate, but he had also allowed a .524 BABIP and generated just a 6.4% swinging-strike rate, which was on pace to be by far the lowest in his career. Fried did have a much better outing in his third start, holding the Marlins to one run on four hits in 6 1/3 innings, but the Houston Astros are a lot more feared lineup than Miami, and though they have cashed the team total Under in 32 of their last 53 home games entering Tuesday, we expect them to score plenty today. 

    The same can be said of the Braves, who face Astros righty J.P. France. France has a much better xERA (4.99) than an actual ERA (8.22), and while that suggests positive regression is looming, it should not come against a Braves offense that leads the league in all three slash line categories (.314/.376/.515) against right-handed pitching.

    Pick: Over 9 (-110)

    St. Louis Cardinals (-142) vs. Oakland Athletics (+120) | O/U 7.5 (-120/-102) 

    We are getting a discounted rate on the St. Louis Cardinals moneyline when facing an Oakland Athletics team that was projected to be one of the worst in the league, as the A’s send Paul Blackburn and his 0.00 ERA to the mound. Per MLB’s Sarah Langs, Blackburn is the first pitcher in A’s history with scoreless starts in each of his first three outings of the season, and is just the seventh pitcher since 1901 to begin a season with three consecutive scoreless starts of at least six innings pitched. However, given that Blackburn has not finished with an ERA better than 4.28 in any of the six seasons since his rookie year, we do not expect his scoreless streak to continue much longer, not should his 3.5% barrel rate on 57 batted balls.

    St. Louis can match zeroes if necessary with Steven Matz, who has pitched to a 1.80 ERA and is on pace for the lowest walk rate of his career (4.8%). Oakland ranks 24th or worse in wRC+ and wOBA against southpaws this season, and considering it won just 41.3% (19 of 46) of its games against left-handed starting pitchers last year, these odds to back the Cardinals are too good to pass up.

    Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (-142)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.