Top NFL Player Props: Week 14 (2021)
It’s the final week of fantasy football’s regular season. If you’ve failed to qualify for the playoffs in your league(s) but still crave action, betting player props is a great way to satisfy that craving.
Here are my favorite player props for Week 14.
- Last week’s bets: 4-3
- Season record: 38-27
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Taylor Heinicke UNDER 241.5 passing yards
The Football Team has displayed a new offensive ethos since returning from its Week 9 bye. Washington has been throwing less and relying more on the running game. Heinicke has averaged 29.8 pass attempts since the bye. If he throws 30 passes against the Cowboys on Sunday, he’ll have to average 8.1 yards per attempt to hit this number. Heinicke averages 7.1 yards per attempt, and the Cowboys are allowing 7.6 yards per attempt. Heinicke has thrown for 223 or fewer yards in each of his last three games.
Derek Carr OVER 259.5 passing yards
Raiders TE Darren Waller will be out this week, and that might be holding down the total on Carr’s passing yardage. Carr has hit this number in 8 of 12 games this season. He faces the Chiefs this weekend, and he squeezed out 261 passing yards when he faced Kansas City in Week 10. Carr is averaging 37.6 pass attempts per game this season. If he throws 37 times on Sunday, he’ll need to average just a tad over 7.0 yards per attempt to hit this number. Carr is averaging 8.1 yards per attempt for the season. This season, the Chiefs’ opponents have thrown on 60% of their offensive snaps, slightly above the league average of 58%. This isn’t a slam dunk – the Chiefs have been playing much better defense of late – but I think it’s a solid percentage play.
Nick Chubb OVER 69.5 rushing yards
Chubb has gone over this number in 7 of 9 games this season. So why is Chubb’s rushing total so low? Probably because Cleveland’s opponent this week, Baltimore, is only giving up 84.3 rushing yards per game. But that’s less about the Ravens having an airtight run defense than it is about opponents choosing to attack Baltimore through the air. The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest rushing attempts in the league, and opponents are throwing on them 64% of the time. But that’s not how the Browns roll. They’re going to run the ball, period – especially in cold December weather. The Browns run the ball on 46.8% of their offensive snaps, the sixth-highest rate in the league. Chubb had only eight carries for 16 yards when the Browns faced the Ravens in Week 12, but expect him to be much busier this weekend.
Antonio Gibson OVER 67.5 rushing yards
Since Washington came out of its Week 9 bye, Gibson has averaged 23.8 rushing attempts in his last four games, all of which were victories for the Football Team. I know, I know: It’s not necessarily that you win because you run the ball; it’s that you have the luxury of running the ball when you’re winning. Still, Gibson has averaged 89.5 rushing yards during the four-game winning streak, and I don’t think the Football Team will mess with a formula that’s been working. Gibson faces the Cowboys, who are giving up 111.1 rushing yards per game.
Amari Cooper OVER 52.5 yards
I really wanted to bet the over on one of the Dallas receivers because I think Washington’s defensive backs will be pretty helpless on Sunday with both of the Football Team’s edge rushers, Chase Young and Montez Sweat, out with injuries. Young tore his ACL last month, and Sweat is on the COVID-19 list. I settled on Cooper because his yardage total is artificially low based on last week’s results. He played only 24 snaps last week after coming off the COVID-19 list and had 41 receiving yards. Cooper is simply way too good for his over/under number to be set so low against a defense that’s giving up 263.9 passing yards per game and probably won’t be able to generate much of a pass rush.
Emmanuel Sanders UNDER 43.5 receiving yards
After a hot start to the season, Sanders’ production has tailed off sharply. He’s been held under 30 receiving yards in four consecutive games, and I don’t expect a rebound this weekend against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers’ opponents are targeting wide receivers on 56.3% of their throws, the sixth-lowest rate in the league. The Buccaneers also play a lot of zone coverage, and Cole Beasley has been Buffalo’s designated zone beater.
Hunter Renfrow OVER 6.5 receptions
I’ve had some success betting bold overs on reception totals this season. Chris Godwin has come through for me a couple of times. This week, I’m pinning my hopes on Renfrow. He had nine catches for 102 yards last week against Washington and eight catches for 134 yards the week before against Dallas. Renfrow will face Chiefs slot corner L’Jarius Sneed, who’s allowed a 76% catch rate to his opponents. Renfrow had seven catches for 46 yards and a touchdown when he faced Sneed and the Chiefs in Week 10, and the Raiders had Darren Waller for that game. Waller has been ruled out for Week 14 with knee and back injuries, so Renfrow should be a busy man. As a bonus, you get -105 odds with the over bet here.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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