Top NFL Player Props: Week 6 (2021)
Some bettors swagger around like Vince McMahon after a good week. Some keep an eye skyward, looking for the safe that might come crashing down on their head at any point. I fall into the latter category.
Last week was a successful one. It just felt good off the club, as they say in golf. The Week 5 player props went 6-2. I only regret one of the two losses: the under on yardage for Jaguars TE Dan Arnold. Bad call. Mea culpa. The other loser, the over on yardage for Tyler Boyd, is a bet Iâd make again. It just didnât work out.
The menu this week was more limited, partly because we have four teams on bye, partly because there are so many ambiguous injury situations that DraftKings is declining to post props on a lot of players.
I settled on six props that I like, but Iâll mention two others that I strongly considered:
- Justin Herbert over 289.5 passing yards. Itâs a tall number, but Herbert has cleared it in three out of five games, and heâs going up against a pass-funnel Ravens defense against whom opponents are throwing on 65% of their offensive snaps.
- Joe Burrow under 280.5 passing yards. Detroitâs pass defense is bad, but opponents are running on Detroit 51% of the time, and the Bengals have been the slowest-paced team in the league this season, reducing total play volume.
Those two tempted me, but I couldnât quite get there with the juice at -115. At -110, I probably would have pulled the trigger.
Hereâs what I like enough to bet this week.
- Last weekâs bets: 6-2
- Season record: 9-5
View the best player prop bets for this weekâs slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
All odds come from DraftKings
Darrel Williams OVER 46.5 rushing yards
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out with a sprained MCL, Williams figures to be the Chiefsâ lead RB Sunday against the Washington Football Team, though Jerick McKinnon will get work, too. The Football Team is giving up 114.4 rushing yards per game, so Williams would only have to get 40.6% of Washingtonâs typical rushing yield to reach the over. The Chiefs may decide to go bombs away against a bad Washington secondary, but I suspect theyâll at least pay lip service to the run.
View all Darrel Williams prop bet odds >>
Latavius Murray OVER 43.5 rushing yards
Admittedly, the Baltimore backfield is a scary place to invest. After losing J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to season-ending injuries, the Ravens are still trying to figure out their RB rotation, but Murray *seems* to be the lead guy for now. The Chargers are tough against the pass but soft against the run, so opponents have been running against them on 46% of their offensive snaps. The Chargers are giving up 157.6 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. Murray should be a good bet to clear this fairly low bar.
View all Latavius Murray prop bet odds >>
Mark Andrews OVER 62.5
This is one where Iâm looking for the safe to fall on my head. Whatâs the catch here? Andrews has surpassed this total in three consecutive games, and heâs completely obliterated it in two of the last three, with 109 yards in Week 3 and 147 yards in Week 5. Andrews faces a Chargers defense that was just trampled by Browns TE David Njoku for seven catches and 149 yards. And hereâs the crazy thing: As of Wednesday, the juice on the Andrews over was -110 instead of the standard -115. Maybe the safe falls on my head here, but Iâll put on a hard hat and take a chance.
View all Mark Andrews prop bet odds >>
Davis Mills UNDER 216 yards
The Texansâ quarterback stunned us by throwing for 312 yards in Week 5 against a normally airtight Patriots defense. Millsâ yardage totals in his Week 3 and Week 4 starts: 168 and 87. The Colts â defense will be eager for redemption after being torched for 442 passing yards by Lamar Jackson on Monday night. I think theyâll find it against the woeful Texans and their rookie quarterback.
View all Davis Mills prop bet odds >>
Nelson Agholor UNDER 3.5 receptions
Note that the juice for this one is slightly elevated at -120, but itâs a risk worth taking. Agholor hasnât caught more than three passes in a game since Week 1. The Patriotsâ rookie, QB Mac Jones, would rather throw underneath or in the flats than challenge defenses downfield. Agholor is also likely to run most of his routes against Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs, whoâs become one of the best cover men in the game. I doubt Agholor gets three catches, let alone four.
View all Nelson Agholor prop bet odds >>
Tyler Lockett UNDER 57.5 receiving yards
Lockettâs yardage totals this season: 100, 178, 31, 24, 57. Itâs easy to see which way heâs trending, and do we really expect him to reverse that trend with Geno Smith at quarterback for the Seahawks instead of Russell Wilson? A game in Pittsburgh is a tough spot for a backup quarterback. Plus, Lockett will see a lot of Steelers CB Joe Haden, a quality cover man.
View all Tyler Lockett prop bet odds >>
View the best player prop bets for this weekâs slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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