Some bettors swagger around like Vince McMahon after a good week. Some keep an eye skyward, looking for the safe that might come crashing down on their head at any point. I fall into the latter category.
Last week was a successful one. It just felt good off the club, as they say in golf. The Week 5 player props went 6-2. I only regret one of the two losses: the under on yardage for Jaguars TE Dan Arnold. Bad call. Mea culpa. The other loser, the over on yardage for Tyler Boyd, is a bet I’d make again. It just didn’t work out.
The menu this week was more limited, partly because we have four teams on bye, partly because there are so many ambiguous injury situations that DraftKings is declining to post props on a lot of players.
I settled on six props that I like, but I’ll mention two others that I strongly considered:
- Justin Herbert over 289.5 passing yards. It’s a tall number, but Herbert has cleared it in three out of five games, and he’s going up against a pass-funnel Ravens defense against whom opponents are throwing on 65% of their offensive snaps.
- Joe Burrow under 280.5 passing yards. Detroit’s pass defense is bad, but opponents are running on Detroit 51% of the time, and the Bengals have been the slowest-paced team in the league this season, reducing total play volume.
Those two tempted me, but I couldn’t quite get there with the juice at -115. At -110, I probably would have pulled the trigger.
Here’s what I like enough to bet this week.
- Last week’s bets: 6-2
- Season record: 9-5
All odds come from DraftKings
Darrel Williams OVER 46.5 rushing yards
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out with a sprained MCL, Williams figures to be the Chiefs’ lead RB Sunday against the Washington Football Team, though Jerick McKinnon will get work, too. The Football Team is giving up 114.4 rushing yards per game, so Williams would only have to get 40.6% of Washington’s typical rushing yield to reach the over. The Chiefs may decide to go bombs away against a bad Washington secondary, but I suspect they’ll at least pay lip service to the run.
Latavius Murray OVER 43.5 rushing yards
Admittedly, the Baltimore backfield is a scary place to invest. After losing J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to season-ending injuries, the Ravens are still trying to figure out their RB rotation, but Murray *seems* to be the lead guy for now. The Chargers are tough against the pass but soft against the run, so opponents have been running against them on 46% of their offensive snaps. The Chargers are giving up 157.6 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. Murray should be a good bet to clear this fairly low bar.
Mark Andrews OVER 62.5
This is one where I’m looking for the safe to fall on my head. What’s the catch here? Andrews has surpassed this total in three consecutive games, and he’s completely obliterated it in two of the last three, with 109 yards in Week 3 and 147 yards in Week 5. Andrews faces a Chargers defense that was just trampled by Browns TE David Njoku for seven catches and 149 yards. And here’s the crazy thing: As of Wednesday, the juice on the Andrews over was -110 instead of the standard -115. Maybe the safe falls on my head here, but I’ll put on a hard hat and take a chance.
Davis Mills UNDER 216 yards
The Texans’ quarterback stunned us by throwing for 312 yards in Week 5 against a normally airtight Patriots defense. Mills’ yardage totals in his Week 3 and Week 4 starts: 168 and 87. The Colts ‘ defense will be eager for redemption after being torched for 442 passing yards by Lamar Jackson on Monday night. I think they’ll find it against the woeful Texans and their rookie quarterback.
Nelson Agholor UNDER 3.5 receptions
Note that the juice for this one is slightly elevated at -120, but it’s a risk worth taking. Agholor hasn’t caught more than three passes in a game since Week 1. The Patriots’ rookie, QB Mac Jones, would rather throw underneath or in the flats than challenge defenses downfield. Agholor is also likely to run most of his routes against Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs, who’s become one of the best cover men in the game. I doubt Agholor gets three catches, let alone four.
Tyler Lockett UNDER 57.5 receiving yards
Lockett’s yardage totals this season: 100, 178, 31, 24, 57. It’s easy to see which way he’s trending, and do we really expect him to reverse that trend with Geno Smith at quarterback for the Seahawks instead of Russell Wilson? A game in Pittsburgh is a tough spot for a backup quarterback. Plus, Lockett will see a lot of Steelers CB Joe Haden, a quality cover man.
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