Top NHL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/8)

by Matt Barbato |
Mar 08, 2024

Today is the NHL Trade Deadline. And while much of the hockey world’s attention will focus on the transactions taking place off the ice, there is a four-pack of games to dissect and bet on. And there’s good news for you night owls, as each game is set to drop the puck at 9 p.m. ET or later.

Here’s a breakdown of Friday’s NHL slate.

Our NHL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet assists bettors by comparing lines from leading sportsbooks with our daily projections >>

Friday's Best NHL Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2023-204 record: 19-11

Minnesota Wild (+180) at Colorado Avalanche (-218), O/U: 6.5 (-110/-110)

The Wild arrive in Denver coming off a 5-2 victory over the Arizona Coyotes Thursday night. While Minnesota might still be fighting to stay alive in the Western Conference wild card race, they could be walking into a buzzsaw on Friday night. The Avs have pummeled road teams coming to Ball Arena on the second leg of a back-to-back this season.

However, while the spot heavily favors Colorado, the analytics tell a different story. Colorado could be due for some regression, as they’ve posted an Expected Goals For percentage of 53.76 at 5-on-5 play over their last 10 games, compared to an Actual Goals For percentage near 70%. Minnesota meanwhile has posted an xGF% of 52.43, indicating that these two teams are in more similar form than the records and spot would indicate.

Throw in the fact that we should get Minnesota’s better goaltender, Filip Gustavsson, Friday night, and this game feels like a stay-away.

Pick: Pass

Detroit Red Wings (-135) at Arizona Coyotes (+115), O/U 6.5 (-110/-110)

This is another game where analytics and spot clash. The Yotes are playing their second game in a row at home, while Detroit has lost three straight games after being the talk of the NHL the previous week.

Once again, the analytics suggest taking the team in the less-than-favorable spot. Arizona has been the far better team in terms of generating scoring chances and controlling play, with a 54.8 xGF% over their last 10 games. Meanwhile, Detroit has posted an xGF% of 43.84% despite an Actual Goals For percentage of 54.55%.

We should see Connor Ingram take the crease for Arizona, which could be a good thing. My hesitation comes from the fact that Ingram allowed four goals on 31 shots to the lousy Chicago Blackhawks in an embarrassing 5-2 loss earlier in the week. With Detroit set to take on Vegas Saturday night, I’d expect James Reimer in net.

While I think a play on the Coyotes is viable, they’re just too untrustworthy to make it a recommended play. Instead, it’ll be a lean with a suggestion to take the over. Detroit should show up in this spot, while Arizona has yielded plenty of goals to far less explosive opponents.

Pick: Over 6.5 Total Goals (-110) & Arizona Moneyline (+115)

Dallas Stars (-310) at Anaheim Ducks (+250), O/U: 6.5 (+105/-125)

There’s no doubt the Stars are the superior team here. Thank you, Captain Obvious.

The analytics bolster the case even further for the heavily favored Stars, who have a 54% xGF% at 5-on-5 compared to a 44.74% Actual Goals For percentage in their last 10 games. The Ducks’ percentages go in the opposite direction, with Anaheim’s 47% Actual Goals For percentage undermined by an Expected Goals For percentage of just 40%, indicating that the Ducks are getting lucky results amidst their 5-4-1 run.

The main differences between these two teams have been conversion rate. Anaheim has a 10.87 shooting percentage over its last 10 games, and Dallas’ shooting percentage is below 7%. Anaheim’s also held the edge between the pipes with a 91.87 save percentage, while Dallas’ is below 90%.

With the Stars on the first leg of a back-to-back and a date with the L.A. Kings on deck, we should see Scott Wedgewood between the pipes Friday. That gives me some serious concern, as Wedgewood has been awful this season, ranking 84th out of 93 goaltenders in goals saved above expectation. Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal hasn’t been great this year, but his play has perked up recently.

If you believe in regression, then Dallas is the clear play here. However, this is a pass for me. Dallas has major issues in net at the moment, and the Stars were just taken to a shootout and overtime in consecutive games against the San Jose Sharks, who are even worse than Anaheim. To lay $3 with a team this bad in net right now is too risky.

Pick: Pass

Winnipeg Jets (-125) at Seattle Kraken (+105), O/U: 5.5 (-112/-108)

Perhaps the most fascinating game of the night will take place at Climate Pledge Arena. The Jets are looking to keep hold of second place in the Central Division, while a 7-2-1 run has buoyed the Kraken to within six points of the Golden Knights for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs.

This is also a rematch from Tuesday night, a game in which the Kraken took down the Jets in Winnipeg by a 4-3 score. This game is also the first of a back-to-back stretch for Winnipeg, which means we should see backup Laurent Brossoit take the crease in the rematch tonight.

While Seattle took the first game of the week between these teams, the analytics suggest the Jets were actually the better team that night. Just take a look at these 5-on-5 stats from Tuesday night:

Corsi For %: Winnipeg 58%, Seattle 42%
Scoring Chances For: Winnipeg 18-15
Expected goals for margin: Winnipeg 2.78-1.41

The Jets nearly doubled the Kraken in expected goals at 5-on-5 and actually outscored Seattle 3-2 at even strength. The difference wound up being special teams, where Seattle scored a short-handed goal and a power-play goal in the closing minutes to take the lead for good.

It was ultimately an off night for Jets starter Connor Hellebuyck, who stopped just 20-of-24 shots against him. Meanwhile, Seattle starter Joey Daccord was far better, stopping 30 shots.

Complicating matters is that Winnipeg could have a handful of players out of action Friday, as Nate Schmidt, Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton, and Gabe Vilardi all didn’t appear at Thursday’s optional skate. Plus, Seattle could opt to make some moves ahead of Friday’s trade deadline that hurt the current roster.

The lean here is for the Jets to get revenge on the road, as I prefer Brossoit to Phillip Grubauer should Seattle’s backup take the crease. However, Winnipeg’s roster issues and recent form give me a bit of a pause.

Pick: Winnipeg Moneyline (-125)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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