Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 35 (2022)
Manchester City is back on top of the Premier League table through 33 matches. Heading into Week 34, City sat two points behind Liverpool, but they had a game in hand, and they took full advantage. The Sky Blues took it to Watford, running up the score in a 5-1 victory to overtake Liverpool atop the standings.
Liverpool may have been knocked down to second place, but they’ve got a similar resume and, in some aspects, better than Manchester City’s. The Reds have one fewer win, but they also have one fewer loss, more expected goals, five more actual goals, and better goal differential, and to top it off – they’ve captured 13 of the last 15 points compared to 11 of 15 from City.
The title is Manchester City’s to lose, but don’t count out Liverpool. Speaking of the Reds, they’re featured in my first of two best bets for Matchweek 35.
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Liverpool to Win to Nil (+130; BetMGM)
You’re already familiar with this type of wager for those who have followed the best bet series all season long, but to those who may be new – a “to win to nil†bet means we’re betting Liverpool to beat Newcastle United while allowing zero goals. We’re getting tremendous value at plus-money as well.
The Reds are fighting for a league title, as mentioned in the open. They need three points every time out, and the best way to get three points is to ensure your opponent doesn’t find the back of the net. Especially if you’re a team like Liverpool, who has scored 85 times in 33 games and has only been shut out once in Premier League play and three times in all competitions. The motivational edge goes to Liverpool, especially since Newcastle has absolutely nothing to play for. They’re in ninth, plenty safe from relegation but also nine points back from having any shot at Europa.
Liverpool is also scoring goals in bunches of late. They’ve scored multiple goals in seven straight matches and nine of their last 10, and they’ve also posted back-to-back clean sheets and six shutouts in their previous 10. We’re catching one of the best teams in the league at the right time in a good matchup.
As for Newcastle, they may be ninth in the league, but there are only eight Premier League teams who’ve scored fewer goals this season. What’s more – their expected goals total is actually five goals fewer than their actual goal total, showing that they’ve run into a bit of luck this season, and luck doesn’t usually show up against teams as good as Liverpool. Newcastle’s expected goals total is sixth-worst in the league this year.
This is really strong value on a niche bet, so I don’t expect it to move much, but I would play it all the way down to +115.
Manchester City to Win to Nil (+140; BetMGM)
What’s good for the goose, right? Manchester City is competing with Liverpool for the top spot in the league, so the motivation is exactly the same for them as it is for Liverpool. They need to maximize their points, they need to get three of them in every match, and their goal is simply to keep the ball out of their net because, like the Reds, the Sky Blues have 80 goals on the year, and it’s nearly impossible to keep them off the scoresheet.
Manchester City has been shut out in just four of their 33 matches this season, undoubtedly more than Liverpool. Still, I don’t anticipate a Leeds United team that has allowed 68 goals on the year to find a way to blank the second-ranked attack in English soccer. Only Norwich City, the worst team in the Premier League in terms of points, has allowed more goals than Leeds has. Expect goals early, and expect them often from an incredibly motivated City side.
Leeds has only kept four clean sheets all year in league play, and those came against Watford (19th in the Premier League), Brighton (11th), and Crystal Palace twice (14th). They’re incapable of shutting down a top team, especially one as high-powered as Manchester City.
When these two teams met back in December, City thrashed Leeds 7-0 and cashed a “to win to nil†bet. I expect more of the same here; play this one down to +120.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.