Top Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 36 (2022)
A week later, nothing has changed atop the Premier League table. Except that both Manchester City and Liverpool captured three points each since the last time we spoke.
City still holds onto the top spot with 83 points; Liverpool sits one point behind with 82. Both clubs also sport an identical 4-0-1 record in their last five, so the trophy will come down to the final match week.
We nailed two plus-money to win to nil bets on the aforementioned EPL leaders in last week’s best bets. This week, we’ve got one more as well as a total. Here are my two favorite wagers on the slate.
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Aston Villa / Burnley Both Teams to Score (-115; BetMGM)
These are two of the bottom teams in the Premier League, and when two bad teams without much to play for meet late in the season, we usually see less structure and more of a push to score goals. And thus, we see more scoring. At first glance, neither of these teams score that much or give up many goals. So what gives? Let’s look at recent trends.
Starting with Aston Villa, they’ve scored in six of their last nine games. Sure, there are three shutouts in there, but they totaled 2.6 expected goals in those three matches, so the ball just didn’t bounce their way. I expect it to bounce in their favor against a Burnley team who has had all kinds of trouble keeping the ball out of their net as of late. Burnley has allowed a goal in nine of their last 11 matches, allowing 17 goals in total over that span.
The Clarets have also been holding their end of the bargain over the last few weeks in terms of scoring. They’ve netted a goal in four consecutive games and five of six, and they haven’t just been chalking up a single goal per game. They’ve scored nine times in those six games, their highest-scoring six-game span since October 2021.
I also like the motivational edge here for Burnley, the weaker of these two teams. They’re just two points clear of relegation. They need wins, not draws, so I expect a heavy focus on pushing the attack and much less of an emphasis on defending their own end. That high-octane style will dictate play at home and open the match up to plenty of scoring. This line has already moved a bit, so I would only play it down to -120.
Arsenal to Win to Nil (+155; DraftKings)
As mentioned in the open, we took two to win to nil bets last week at plus-money, and we cashed them both. This is my favorite on the board for Week 36. As always, for those who aren’t familiar with this wager, we’re betting on Arsenal to beat Leeds United in shutout form.
I have no idea why we’re getting such strong odds on this bet, but let’s not complain about it. Let’s exploit it. Arsenal has a ton to play for. They’re in fourth place but are just two points ahead of Tottenham, who play Liverpool this weekend. This is a prime opportunity for the Gunners to create some distance between themselves and fifth place and take one more step towards clinching a Champions League berth. I like the motivational edge for Arsenal; they’re not going to get lackadaisical and allow a bottom team like Leeds to spoil their party by finding a way to score and force a draw.
Arsenal is also playing very well. None of their last three games have resulted in a shutout, but they’ve won them all after losing three in a row prior. They seem to have gotten their swagger back, and with nine goals in their last three matches, I don’t foresee any issues getting a goal past the second-worst team in the Premier League at keeping the ball out of their net.
As for Leeds, I already mentioned how poorly they’ve been all year defensively, but they’re also not balancing out the poor defense with a strong offense. Only six teams in the Premier League have scored fewer goals than Leeds, and they’re fresh off allowing four to Manchester United. Leeds have also posted just five shutouts all year long, and it’s hard to envision a sixth against a motivated, top team with a ton to play for.
I mentioned there’s a ton of value on this line, and while I don’t expect it to drop this far, I would play this one all the way down to +130.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.