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Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Worlds collide Saturday night in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, as World Boxing Council (WBC) and lineal heavyweight champion Tyson Fury takes on former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou in an exhibition bout in a scrap being titled the “Battle of the Baddest.”

The preliminary fights begin at 2 p.m. ET, with the main event starting at approximately 5 p.m. You can tune in via ESPN+ Pay-per-view.

Below, I will discuss my two best prop bets for this event.

Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou Picks

Fury (33-0-1, 24 KOs) heads to Saudi Arabia, where his half-brother, Tommy Fury, handed Jake Paul his first loss in a split decision back in late February. The “Gypsy King” hopes he can tap into that kingdom’s magic, and he is a massive favorite to do just that. This fight is scheduled to go 10 rounds, but officially, it is considered an exhibition.

The last time we saw Fury in the ring, he stopped Derek Chisora in 10 rounds via TKO at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London. Before that, he scored a TKO in the sixth round against Dillian Whyte. In fact, each of his past four fights has ended with a knockout, and there is very little reason to believe that will not be the result against the former UFC champ Ngannou, too.

Ngannou, a.k.a. “The Predator,” will be making his boxing debut, and Fury will likely make very quick work of the former UFC champ. The best chance for Ngannou to pull off the unbelievable upset would be to somehow get Fury into a corner, working the body. Fury has proven to be very elusive over the years, and he rarely, if ever, gets cornered. He moves well, even at 35 years of age, and he is likely to take very little damage from Ngannou as he gets his sea legs in the first few rounds.

Some feel Ngannou could tap into a disrespectful angle, too. While this is an exhibition, there is some questioning Fury for booking a title fight with Oleksandr Usyk, likely for around the holidays, before he has even finished this fight.

While those thoughts are all well and good, and former champ Mike Tyson has been coaching Ngannou, there is very little chance this ends well for the UFC fighter. Fury is too good, too agile and too experienced to fall against a fighter making his boxing debut. It won’t be as easy as Fury might want, but he’ll get the knockout in the end.

It’s a little too expensive to play Fury by KO/TKO/DQ (-550), but I like the moneyline/total knockdowns angle. Fury to Win and Over 1.5 knockdowns (-110) is near even-money.

Pick: Tyson Fury To Win & Over 1.5 Knockdowns (-110)

Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou Props

You’ll definitely want to lock in the above Moneyline/Total Knockdowns prop.

However, play a three-round block, too. Let’s take Fury to Win in Round 5 (+700), Fury to Win in Round 6 (+900) and Fury to Win in Round 7 (+1200). Yes, you will lose two of those ends, even if he gets a finish in Rounds 5 through 7. However, you’ll still be quite a bit ahead. If you’re more of a conservative bettor, you can tack on an extra round or two, although you’ll be risking more money and cutting down your potential winnings substantially. I’d cap it at a three-round max for round betting.

I like this method rather than the Round Group Betting. For instance, the odds have Fury to Win in Rounds 5-6 (+380), but if you do it the way I outline above, you could potentially win a lot more. I don’t understand why anyone would cut down their winnings significantly with the Round Group Betting prop.

If you’re a little more on the conservative side but want action in this fight, simply going with the exact fight outcome of KO (+150) will help you multiply your initial wager by 1 1/2 times. However, know that does not include a potential TKO (-180), which the books feel is more likely. I would tend to shy away from that, although it is worth pursuing if you don’t want to necessarily declare a winner.

Bets: Tyson Fury to Win in Round 5 (+700) | Tyson Fury to Win in Round 6 (+900) | Tyson Fury to Win in Round 7 (+1200)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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