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UFC 299 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets

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Every sports bettor gravitates towards longshots. Who doesn’t want a larger payday than the normal straight-up wager? Well, the great thing is that MMA is rife with longshots to hit because the volatility of fighting is ever-present. Today, we will focus on the matchup between Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida.

Let’s dive into our top longshot bet for UFC 299!

UFC 299 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

Jailton Almeida (-112) vs. Curtis Blaydes (-108)

Curtis Blaydes

  • Dist Acc Off: 35.8%
  • Dist Att/Min: 10.46
  • Dist Def: 69%
  • KD%: 1.1% (1 KD out of 87 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 23.1%
  • Control % Def: 0%

Curtis Blaydes has 28 minutes and 40 seconds of total fight time in the sample size for his advanced statistical profile. He has not been in a defensive control position for a single second of that.

Jailton Almeida has proven to be one of the most elite grapplers in the heavyweight division. The only catch is that he has yet to face an opponent who is a fellow grappler. Almeida is a hybrid-heavyweight who will give up at least 30 pounds to Blaydes. Realistically, Almeida could fight at light heavyweight and dominate most of the division. Almeida has a rudimentary striking game, to say the least, and if he cannot control Blaydes, then it will be a long or short night, depending on how you look at it.

I have Blaydes weathering Almeida’s early offense and wearing him down into the second round, where he will finish him.

Bet: Curtis Blaydes by KO/TKO in the Second Round (+700)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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