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UFC 299 O’Malley vs. Vera: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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The UFC has been putting on loaded pay-per-view cards gearing up for UFC 300, and this is no exception. Sean O'Malley versus Marlon Vera is the draw on this card, but the five-rounder between Dustin Poirier and Benoit Saint Denis could headline its own PPV. It should be a fun night of fights, and hopefully, our featured parlay helps make you some money when the night is over.

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UFC 299 O'Malley vs. Vera: Parlay Picks & Predictions

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2024 total: -2 units

Leg 1: Mateusz Gamrot Money Line (–455)

Mateusz Gamrot versus Rafael Dos Anjos somehow made it on the prelims, but make no mistake, this is a high-level fight. “RDA” may be out of his prime, but he has shown that he is still competitive. However, this a tale of two fighters heading in different directions.

Dos Anjos has dropped two of his last three fights to Vicente Luque and Rafael Fiziev, which is not bad, but he struggles with the upper echelon of fighters. Gamrot has won two straight after losing a decision to Beneil Dariush. His three victories over his last four fights have been against Rafael Fiziev, Jalin Turner and Arman Tsarukyan. He is beating high-quality opponents and should fare well against Dos Anjos.

Gamrot is a high-pressure wrestler who lands 4.36 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dos Anjos is usually the fighter trying to wrestle in his fights, but he will be the one defending takedowns in this one. Gamrot has defended 90% of takedowns in his UFC career, while Dos Anjos only lands 35% of his attempts and defends 56% of his opponents'. Vicente Luque landed eight takedowns against RDA in August. Gamrot should apply more pressure via wrestling, which will earn him the nod.

Leg 2: Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong Over 2.5 Rounds (–298)

The tale of Petr Yan has featured quite a few losses recently, but do not let that be deceiving. His four losses in the UFC came against Merab Dvalishvili, O'Malley (controversial split decision), and two to Aljamain Sterling (one was the infamous DQ). He never has an easy night at the office, and this is no exception. Song Yadong is only 26 years old but has an impressive record of 21-7-1, with a 10-3 record in the promotion. He has loads of experience and is still evolving at a young age.

Yan has an average fight time of just under 17 minutes, which displays the numerous five-round bouts in his UFC career. Yadong's average fight time is just shy of 13 minutes. Both men are dangerous, but one cannot rely on power to win at bantamweight. Yan is defensive as a striker and keeps a high guard. He also is very capable of mixing things up with his wrestling. Yadong is probably more explosive but does not have the highest level of wrestling (73% takedown defense). It will be a close fight, so let's target the over 2.5 rounds and see who the judges decide.

Leg 3: Sean O'Malley Money Line (-265)

The rematch between O'Malley and "Chito” Vera should be an entertaining fight, but O'Malley is the champion this time, which comes with supreme confidence. A perfectly placed kick by Vera hit O'Malley's peroneal nerve, which effectively shut down his right leg. It has happened in MMA but does not tell the whole tale of the fight. Vera is a tailor-made matchup for O'Malley, especially because "Chito" is a slow starter. He has power and is durable, but uses a few rounds to get going in his fights. O'Malley is the opposite. He tends to start quickly, especially with his feints, which he uses masterfully.

Another point of contention on the first fight, which occurred in August 2020, is that O'Malley had recently had major surgery on his right foot, which he broke in his second UFC fight. Three and half years later, these men are in different spots in their careers. Vera is 5-2 since that fight, with losses to Jose Aldo and Cory Sandhagen. O'Malley is 5-0 with one no-contest. He has not defended the belt yet, but he has always been a confident fighter, and it should be amplified now with the belt.

O'Malley will have the speed, plus a three-inch height and a 1.5-inch reach advantage in the cage. The fight should primarily occur on the feet, which is usually the case with these two. Vera lands 4.37 significant strikes but absorbs 5.16 per minute. O'Malley lands 7.25 significant strikes per minute. The speed difference will be glaring, and Vera is there to be hit, especially up the center. He can sit in the pocket too long because he is not afraid of getting hit. He has durability, but O'Malley's powerful, precise punches will make him pay. The money line is the safe play for this parlay, but O'Malley by knockout could be used to make this a bigger payout. Vera has never been finished, but "Suga" Sean is not your normal bantamweight.

Total Parlay Odds: +124

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