UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
Two legends of MMA make their return this weekend for UFC 309. Jon "Bones" Jones is returning to the octagon to defend his Heavyweight Title against Stipe Miocic in Madison Square Garden. Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler will rematch in the co-main event in the lightweight division. The prelims begin at 6 p.m. EST, and the main card starts at 10 p.m.
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UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic: Parlay Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook) | 2024 total: -2.7 units
Leg 1: Marcus McGhee (-142)
I went more in-depth on this fight in my preliminary predictions article. McGhee burst onto the scene and has finished his first three opponents in the UFC. He now draws a ranked opponent in Jonathan Martinez, who lost to Jose Aldo in May. He fell to 13 in the rankings after snapping his six-fight win streak.
How McGhee deals with Martinez's leg kicks will likely determine the outcome. He must counter Martinez when he throws them. Martinez's head does not move off center, and he is there to be hit. McGhee should have the power and grappling advantage. He could try to control Martinez if the leg kicks become a problem, but I expect him to win this fight with his boxing.
Leg 2: Karine Silva (-298)
Karine Silva and Viviane Araujo will fight this weekend, and I already have a preview that will offer an in-depth analysis. Silva has won her first four UFC fights after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series in 2021. She is facing 37-year-old Araujo, who has been in the UFC since 2019. She has lost four fights since 2021, but it was against tough competition. Araujo has become a gatekeeper of the division, and Silva is the next prospect to take her down. Silva is the better grappler, younger, and can control Araujo on the mat. She may not find a finish, but she should coast to a decision if she wrestles (3.59 takedowns landed per 15 minutes).
Leg 3: Jon Jones (-625)
Jon "Bones" Jones returns to the octagon to defend his heavyweight strap against Stipe Miocic. Jones last fought in 2023 against Ciryl Gane and won by guillotine choke in the first round. He showed why he is the best fighter ever, and I expect him to do the same Saturday.
Miocic has not been in the octagon since 2021, when he was viciously knocked out by Francis Ngannou. He needed some time off after that knockout, but three years is long. Jones is not someone you want to shake off the rust against. Jones is one of the most well-rounded fighters ever. He lands 4.49 significant strikes and absorbs 2.22 significant strikes per minute, with 57% accuracy and 64% defense. He also averages 1.93 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Miocic is also a great wrestler, but Jones probably has the advantage. I expect most of this fight to be on the feet, but Jones can mix it up. He has a four-inch reach advantage that he will surely utilize. Both men could retire after this fight, and I expect Jones to put on a show.
Total Parlay Odds: +164