Two legends of MMA make their return this weekend for UFC 309. Jon "Bones" Jones is returning to the octagon to defend his Heavyweight Title against Stipe Miocic in Madison Square Garden. Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler will rematch in the co-main event in the lightweight division. The prelims begin at 6 p.m. EST, and the main card starts at 10 p.m.
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UFC 309 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Veronica Hardy (-135) vs. Eduarda Moura (+114)
The first fight is in the women's flyweight division between Veronica Hardy and Eduarda Moura. Hardy is a southpaw with a 9-4-1 record and a 4-4 record in the UFC. Hardy has won her last three fights and four of her last five. She beat JJ Aldrich in May via unanimous decision, and her last loss was against Bea Malecki in 2020 via unanimous decision.
Moura is an orthodox fighter with a 10-1 record. She suffered her first loss to Denise Gomes her last time in the octagon. Moura landed five takedowns and had six and a half minutes of control time but lost a split decision to Gomes. That fight was at strawweight, and she may have drained herself to get to 115 pounds.
Moura is a wrestler who averages 5.15 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. She has five submissions and four knockout wins on her record. Hardy is likely the better striker in this matchup, but Moura has an advantage on the mat. Hardy has defended 60% of takedowns in the UFC. Her husband, Dan Hardy, should have her prepared to defend takedowns, but wrestling is difficult to gameplan against. Moura should control Hardy on the mat and win enough minutes to win a decision.
Bet: Eduarda Moura (+114)
Jonathan Martinez (+120) vs. Marcus McGhee (-142)
The featured bout on the prelims is in the bantamweight division between Jonathan Martinez and Marcus McGhee. McGhee is 9-1 as a professional and took advantage of his UFC debut against Journey Newson, winning by rear naked choke. He followed that fight with two knockout wins over JP Buys and Gaston Bolanos, earning him a ranked opponent in Jonathan Martinez.
Martinez is 19-5 as a professional and 10-4 in the UFC. His last fight was a unanimous decision lost to Jose Aldo. He had no answers for Aldo, who was mixing things up well. Martinez was on a six-fight win streak before that loss, which got him into the rankings. He is currently the thirteenth-ranked bantamweight.
Martinez has devastating leg kicks that seem to factor into every fight. He is a technical striker who can find a knockout but is not known for his power. His kicks typically help him find finishes because guys cannot stand after getting kicked in the calf by him. McGhee has the boxing and power advantage in this fight. He needs to avoid getting his legs chopped down and at least land a counter if he does get kicked. Martinez will be there to hit when he throws a leg kick, and McGhee can find the punch to end it. McGhee also has a wrestling advantage, which would be useful to display in this fight. McGhee is not well known, with only 10 fights at 34, but he is a solid fighter that deserves recognition. He could find a finish, but a decision victory would not be surprising with Martinez's toughness.
Bet: Marcus McGhee (-142)
