UFC 309 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
With so many high-leverage fights on Saturday's UFC 309 card from Madison Square Garden in New York, there's no shortage of ways to get in on the action. I'm heading to the prop sheet for this article, where I've narrowed in on three props for Saturday’s main card.
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UFC 309 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jon Jones (-625) vs. Stipe Miocic (+455)
All roads lead to a Heavyweight title fight between two juggernauts in Jon Jones (champion) and Stipe Miocic (No. 8). Jon "Bones" Jones finds himself as a massive -625 Moneyline favorite, while Miocic comes back at +455 to win back the Heavyweight strap.
I am in alignment with the betting market that Jones will prevail in this contest. However, I think it may take a touch longer than the masses are projecting. Jones has finished 17 (10 knockouts, seven submissions) of his 27 professional wins early, which translates to a finish rate of 63%.
But, rarely have the finishes come early in the fight - at least recently. Nine of his last 10 tilts have made it to at least the third round, seven went the full 25 minutes. The lone exception is his recent bout against Ciryl Gane (Submission - Guillotine Choke), where Jones landed a pair of takedowns against the Frenchman, who we now know has absolutely zero ground game.
That isn't the case with Miocic, who was a college wrestler and boasts a respectable 68% takedown defense rate. As long as the 42-year-old former champ can keep the fight upright, we should make it through 10 minutes of action.
Bet: Fight to Start Round 3: Yes (-120)
Charles Oliveira (-245) vs. Michael Chandler (+200)
A special five-round rematch in the Lightweight division is scheduled in the co-main event, as Charles Oliveira (No. 2) looks to improve to 2-0 against Michael Chandler (No. 7) in the UFC octagon. The Brazilian is a -245 moneyline favorite to do so, while Chandler is a +200 underdog to get back in the win column.
The first fight between these two stars lasted only 5:19, as Charles "do Bronx" Oliveira knocked out Michael "Iron” Chandler 19 seconds into the second round. I expect Oliveira to take care of business once again, but I think we'll go deeper into the fight. If this theory plays out, Chandler should have plenty of time to rack up significant strikes and eclipse this measly threshold of 28.5 strikes.
He's done so in three of his last four bouts, averaging 50.8 significant strikes per fight. Chandler is issuing 4.89 significant strikes per minute, so I'd qualify him as a high-volume striker. As for Oliveira, his opponents land 49% of their strike attempts, which is slightly elevated. Give me Chandler to reach at least 29 significant strikes in the co-main event.
Bet: Michael Chandler Over 28.5 Significant Strikes Landed (-115)
Mauricio Ruffy (-900) vs. James Llontop (+600)
As we get closer to Saturday, I'm realizing there are quite a few heavy favorites on the card, one of which is Mauricio Ruffy, who's a –900 favorite to improve on his 10-1-0 professional record. He'll take on Peru's James Llontop, who sits as a +600 underdog to pull off an upset in the main-card opener.
This Lightweight battle should be a banger to start the main bill, and I think we'll see one of these two heavy hitters go to sleep. For Ruffy, he's 10-1-0 in his career - all 11 of his fights have ended in knockouts. Yes, that's right, he boasts a perfect 10-for-10 finish rate (100%) with 10 knockouts. Perhaps that's why he was issued the nickname "One Shot."
As for Llontop, he's somewhat of a knockout artist himself, amassing seven of them throughout his 14-4-0 pro career. Furthermore, neither of these brawlers has landed a takedown in their five combined UFC fights. I expect that to continue on Saturday. We should get 15 minutes (likely less) of stand-up fighting here, which is more favorable for those of us looking for knockouts.
Bet: Exact Method of Victory: Knockout (-160)
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