UFC Fight Night: Dan Hooker vs. Dustin Poirier Betting Guide (2020)
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The UFC is back this weekend with another Saturday card. It’s been an awesome string of Saturday night events as most of the sporting world has been quiet over the last month or so. We’ll have the weekend off next week as the UFC is ramping up for the launch of Fight Island, which begins the Saturday after.
For now, we’re taking a look at this week’s fight card with a focus on the main event. Dan Hooker and Dustin Poirier will both have a claim as becoming the No. 1 contender – or close to it – with a win in this spot, so this is an important Lightweight Championship showdown.
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Dustin Poirier (25-6) vs Dan Hooker (20-8)
Odds: Poirier -230, Hooker +184 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Taking a look at the action, it appears that bettors at FanDuel Sportsbook have been all over Poirier.
“Poirier Hooker fight was first priced on May 25 where Hooker was a +150 underdog vs -178 Poirier. Since then the market has steadily moved towards Poirier, who is now -230 vs +184 Hooker,†Kevin Hennessy, Publicity Director at FanDuel Sportsbook. “Poirier is the biggest winner for customers on moneyline bets.â€
Poirier is coming off a title shot at UFC 242 where he lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He really didn’t have much of chance in that bout as he was choked out in the third round. However, that loss is nothing to be ashamed of as Khabib is the champ and has yet to lose in his career. Prior to that, Poirier had been on the rise as he had won four in a row and had just one loss in his previous 11 fights. He’s now No. 3 in the Lightweight rankings and No. 11 in the pound-for-pound overall.
He’ll take on Dan Hooker in this fight, who is also looking to make an ascent up the ladder. Hooker has won three in a row and seven of eight, which includes a win over Paul Felder at UFC Fight Night: Felder vs Hooker in February. Hooker is now No. 5 in the Lightweight rankings but as you can tell by the odds, he’s not exactly expected to fare so well in this bout.
What we’re going to see here is whether Poirier’s struggles against Nurmagomedov were a one-fight issue or whether they can be exploited further. In other words, Nurmagomedov dominated him. Did that expose something in his game or was it that Nurmagomedov is simply that dominant?
This fight should be a completely different style and if Poirier applies pressure, he should win. He did that against Khabib but later backed up, and that’s where Nurmagomedov took over. Poirier is fast and powerful, and he’s really effective with his combinations. I just don’t see that as being a good matchup for Hooker. He’ll trade and he’ll get in his shots but Poirier is more aggressive, more powerful and more direct. This bout should go similar to the Hooker-Edson Barboza fight where the two traded quite a bit but eventually, Hooker just couldn’t take any more punishment.
One interesting note – which doesn’t necessarily mean anything – but every time a fighter has beaten Paul Felder, they’ve gone on to lose their next fight. Although it’s a really nothing trend, I am expecting that to continue in this spot with Hooker taking the loss.
Pick: Poirier -230 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.