Valspar Championship 2025: Picks & Golf Predictions

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 19, 2025

Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer are back to break down the final stop on the PGA Florida swing: The Valspar Championship. They recap Rory McIlroy's clutch playoff victory over JJ Spaun at the 2025 Players Championship last week, highlighting how McIlroy navigated tough conditions to secure his 28th PGA Tour title. Then, they deliver an in-depth betting breakdown for the Valspar Championship at Florida's formidable Copperhead Course. Featuring insights into key golfers such as Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, and defending champ Taylor Moore, this episode gives you actionable betting advice for the weekend.

Our discussion includes updated odds, expert parlays, strategic one-and-done picks, a comprehensive look at the field, and a deep dive into the course’s unique characteristics. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to golf betting, our insights will help you make informed decisions. Don’t forget to subscribe for weekly episodes covering the highs and lows of PGA betting.

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The Valspar Championship 2025 Best Bets & Predictions

Betting Overview & Picks for the 2025 Valspar Championship

?"? Tournament Breakdown:

Event: 2025 Valspar Championship
Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (Palm Harbor, FL)
Par/Yardage: Par 71, 7,352 yards
Defending Champion: Peter Malnati (-12, won by 2 strokes over Cameron Young in 2024)
Key Features of Copperhead:
- Narrow, tree-lined fairways
- Speedy Bermuda greens
- Five challenging par 3s (all 195+ yards)
- Snake Pit (Holes 16-18): One of the toughest finishing stretches on the PGA Tour
Weather Forecast:
- Dry and mostly sunny with firm, fast conditions
- Winds 10-20 mph on Thursday & Friday, calming on the weekend

?"' Key Stats for Success:

Good Drives Gained: Narrow fairways demand accuracy off the tee.
Strokes Gained: Approach: Iron play is crucial to set up birdie chances.
Scrambling & Bogey Avoidance: The Snake Pit will punish bad recovery shots.
Par 5 Scoring: These are the best scoring opportunities on a tough course.

?"? Official Betting Picks & Analysis

?"? Outright Winner Picks:

🏆 Tommy Fleetwood (+1400)
- Great fit for this course: Grinder mentality, elite approach play, strong scrambling.
- Third-place finish here in 2023.
- Never won on the PGA Tour-could this finally be his week?
?"? Sepp Straka (+2200)
- One of the most accurate players in the field (Good Drives Gained #1 last 24 rounds).
- Consistently contending this season-7 top-15 finishes in 9 starts.
- Perfect mix of accuracy and putting skill to handle Copperhead.
?"? Michael Kim (+4000)
- One of the hottest players on tour before missing the cut last week.
- Top 10 streak going into The Players Championship (before missing cut at even par).
- Strong approach play, solid scrambling, and proven ability on Bermuda greens.
?'? Carl Yuan (+15000)
- Rising star on tour, recently broke through in Puerto Rico.
- Strong approach numbers & good short game.
- At this price, worth a flyer on a high-upside talent.

?"? Top-10/Top-20 Bets:

Sam Burns (Top-10, +200)
- Two-time Valspar winner (2021, 2022), 6th place in 2023.
- Elite putter on Bermuda greens.
Alex Smalley (Top-10, +400)
- Consistent contender in recent weeks.
- Strong ball-striking numbers make him a sneaky play.
Denny McCarthy (Top-20, +350)
- Short-game wizard with elite putting on Bermuda greens.
- If the greens play fast, he has a real shot to sneak into the top 20.

🧠 Betting Strategy for Copperhead:

✅ Focus on Accuracy & Ball Striking: Wayward drivers will struggle here.
✅ **Target Scramblers & Par 5 Scorers: Tough course with only a few true birdie chances.
✅ Avoid Bombers: Distance is not a major advantage at Copperhead.
✅ Consider Betting Live After Round 1: Windy Thursday/Friday may create opportunities for value on slower starters.

The Valspar Championship 2025 Timestamps:

Introduction – 0:00:00
Recap The Players – 00:00:30
Copperhead Course – 00:05:39
Favorites – 00:10:17
Tommy Fleetwood – 00:11:05
Sepp Straka – 00:11:51
Michael Kim – 00:12:05
Alex Smalley – 00:12:25
Justin Thomas – 00:13:24
Xander Schauffele – 00:13:44
Sepp Straka 2 – 00:14:03
Will Zalatoris – 00:14:21
Corey Conners – 00:14:27
Sam Burns – 00:14:43
Mid Range – 00:15:00
Jake Knapp – 00:16:41
Min Woo Lee – 00:18:20
Taylor Moore – 00:19:20
Lucas Glover – 00:19:40
Thomas Detry – 00:20:11
Sahith Theegala – 00:20:16
Beau Hossler – 00:20:31
Mac Meissner – 00:20:50
Sam Ryder – 00:21:08
Karl Vilips – 00:21:34
Christiaan Bezuidenhout – 00:23:53
Joel Dahmen – 00:24:09
Sami Valimaki – 00:24:25
Peter Malnati – 00:24:37
Betting Cards – 00:24:52
One And Done – 00:26:03
Closing – 00:28:02

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