Navigate

Western Michigan vs. Mississippi State: College Football Week 6 Odds & Picks (2023)

by |

This article’s focus is to take a look at betting totals in a more nuanced approach. Instead of being like, “The over/under is 65 points. Team A scored 35 points per game (PPG), and Team B scored 40 PPG. I’ll take the over.” We will use several advanced statistics and techniques that might be overlooked in the betting landscape. Here are all of my picks for the week. And below we dive into Western Michigan vs. Mississippi State.

College Football Week 6 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions: Western Michigan vs. Mississippi State

Overview

The average over/under total for a college football game is 57.5 points, regardless of the teams, pace, weather, etc. The common thought process for most bettors and fans will be to look at the red zone statistics and see if you have two efficient teams who convert into a lot of TDs. While it is a fine thought process, it is incredibly archaic. The difference between the best team in the red zone and the worst team in the red zone isn’t that significant because you are only dealing with 20 yards of variance.

Also, looking at efficiency on points on a per-game basis assumes each game will be the same, which is entirely false. You need to look at it from an opportunity standpoint with more variance. We will use several advanced statistics to measure how successful the game environment is: PPO (Points Per Opportunity), IsoPPP (explosive plays), Pace, Rush Rate, Projected PPO, and Projected PPO difference.

PPO, also known as finishing drives, is a statistic that extends the “Redzone” from the 20-yard line to the 40-yard line. An incredible 78 percent of a college football game points are scored inside the opponent’s 40-yard lines. I know you are saying,” Well, yeah, that’s not surprising.” The great thing is that it’s a predictable point of emphasis. We can predict PPO based on the offensive/defensive matchup.

Essentially, you can look at a total and say, “The projected PPO needed for this total is X, and that is a difference of +/- what we need.” This will determine whether or not to lean over or under on a total. Now, the other 22% of points scored are volatile, but that’s where IsoPPP (explosive plays) come in. We can simplify betting over/under by looking at it from a numbers-needed standpoint and building the game script with other advanced statistics.

Glossary

  • PPO (Points Per Opportunity): Points scored on each drive inside an opponent’s 40-yard line
  • IsoPPP: Explosive plays typically over 20 yards for passing plays and over 15 yards for rushing plays
  • PPO Projected: Projected opportunity points that are matchup-adjusted
  • PPO Projected Total Difference: Projected opportunity points difference needed to reach the total. Positive differences would lean over, and negative differences lean under
  • PROE: Pass Rate over Expectancy
  • Pace of Play: Plays/sec a higher ranking means a faster pace of play
  • Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average pass rate is 40%)
  • Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average Pass rate is 60%)

Western Michigan @ Mississippi State over 56.5

  • Western Michigan average projected Off IsoPPP matchup
  • Mississippi State projected Top 20 Off IsoPPP matchup
  • Western Michigan average projected Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Mississippi State projected Top 30 Standard Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Western Michigan average projected Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Mississippi State projected Top 30 Passing Downs IsoPPP matchup
  • Projected PPO combined points 49.3
  • Projected PPO difference +5.6 points
  • Western Michigan 8th in Pace
  • Mississippi State 95th in Pace
  • Western Michigan -1.2% in PROE on Standard Downs (85th)
  • Western Michigan -6.2% in PROE on Passing Downs (104th)
  • Mississippi State -2.2% in PROE on Standard Downs (88th)
  • Mississippi State -4.4% in PROE on Passing Downs (98th)

This is a tricky matchup, but a couple of areas lean toward a fruitful scoring environment. Mississippi State has fortuitous IsoPPP matchups across the board, while Western Michigan’s are not horrendous, just average. Also, Western Michigan plays at an elite pace that could drive the entire game. If Western Michigan sees success with that pace, it will lend to Mississippi State having more possessions, too. Neither team has a high PROE on Standard Downs or Passing Downs, but the high projected PPO difference tells us that can be made up for in pure opportunities.

Bet: Western Michigan/ Mississippi State over 56.5


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!