What is a Win Total Bet?
In the realm of sports betting on futures, the classic futures get most of the attention as they are more of a yes/no question of whether a team will win a league, conference, or divisional title; as well as annual player awards. There is another long-term market, however, that is attracting more and more attention each year; the “Win Total.”
Let’s take a closer look at what exactly this is and what some good strategies for capitalizing on the market are.
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What is a Win Total Bet?
A Win Total bet quietly simply bets on an over/under on a posted total number of wins. In the NFL, for example, every team now plays 17 games in the regular season.
Per oddsmakers’ ratings, the “average” team will likely have a posted win total of between 8 and 9, or exactly half of their total games. It’s also worth noting that, just like individual game point totals, the numbers posted are usually posted in .5 increments, so an NFL team expected to win half of its games would be posted at 8.5.
Also, similar to traditional totals, the over or under is usually shaded with juice, depending on where bookmakers want/need the action.
What is a Good Win Total Bet Strategy?
When oddsmakers make the Win Total, they use a myriad of strategies, but they most commonly go game by game, assign a win probability, and round up and down, tallying ones and zeroes. As a bettor, one strategy would be to do the exact same.
If you believe the team you are betting on has an edge (or lacks one) in a game, based on player matchups, matchup histories, etc, that a bookmaker does not, you have found your Win Total edge.
Another strategy that I have deployed in the past is to use the wide availability of sportsbook options in your state to find a “middle”, as not all books will have the same posted Win Totals.
As an example for the upcoming MLB season, let’s say DraftKings has the Washington Nationals posted to win 83.5 games, but BetMGM has them posted to win 86.5. You would win both bets if you bet the DraftKings number over and the BetMGM number under, and they win 84, 85, or 86.
While these anomalies are hard to find, they’re most common right when the books post their Win Totals market and certainly exist for those willing to look hard enough.
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