What Moves the Spread in Sports Betting?
With March Madness just around the corner, more people than ever are flocking to sports betting as a form of entertainment with the potential of making some money. Because of that, it’s important not just to understand what the spread is but what makes it ebb and flow.
Let’s take a closer look at a few common factors.
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Injuries
For many of the major sports, oddsmakers have a systematic approach that includes not just recent performances and historical scores/stats for teams but also individual players. Especially in American football and basketball, it’s safe to assume that every (remotely) key player on every team has a point value assigned to them.
That’s why on your favorite sports betting talk shows, injuries are often a common talking point as different players missing games mean different swings for the point spread. For example, in American football, the quarterback is often “worth the most points†to the spread, as the entire game flows through him. Furthering that example, a defensive lineman (not named Aaron Donald) likely will have little to no impact on the spread should he be ruled out.
Public Betting
Though the anticipation of it is likely already baked into the opening number, big inflows of money on a particular side can push points spread in the direction in which it’s coming in. Using American football as an example again, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys are two of the public’s favorite teams to bet on, so while oddsmakers might expect an outcome of X, they have to factor in the public’s default-nature of betting on the Steelers and Cowboys in assigning a number.
The more many that comes in on Team A, the more the oddsmakers will shift the line in favor of Team B to try and draw in an equal amount of action on both sides.
Sharp Money
Often, the biggest reason a point spread might move in sports betting is when sharp (respected) money comes in on a particular side. The term “sharp†in sports betting simply refers to a bettor who wins more often than they lose, potentially sports betting as means of primary income.
When a sportsbook first offers a point spread, the limits in which a bettor can get down are often small to allow sharp bettors to bet into them, essentially giving their opinion on it, and for the sportsbook to then move the spread accordingly.
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Johnny is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.