Will Baker Mayfield Go Over/Under 3899.5 passing yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, there is no shortage of NFL player props available to wager on for the upcoming 2020-21 season. Over/unders are posted for a number of quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers. Since there is still some uncertainty pertaining to COVID-19, FanDuel’s rules stipulate that teams must play a full 16 game regular season for a player prop wager to stand.
We have identified a number of player props we love and will be releasing our picks as part of a series over the next month. Be sure to check back for our selections.
This article focuses on Cleveland Browns’ quarterback Baker Mayfield’s regular-season total passing yards.
Check out all of our 2020 NFL Player Prop Bets here.
Get a risk-free bet up to $500 at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
Will Baker Mayfield go Over/Under 3899.5 Passing Yards?
Over 3899.5 (-112) / Under 3899.5 (-112) (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Case for the Over
In his rookie year in 2018, Baker Mayfield threw for 3,725 yards in 13 games. That 266.1 per game average extrapolated over 16 games means Mayfield was on pace for a blistering 4,257.6 yards as a rookie. Though he played in all 16 games last year, he finished with 3,827 yards. Thus, his per game average was 27 yards less per game than his rookie year. However, the positive is that Mayfield played all 16 games and has never missed a game in two years due to injury. That fact is always important when analyzing a season-long prop.
There are many potential reasons for Mayfield’s slight decline in year two. The biggest is the inadequate pass protection by the offensive line. Baker Mayfield was sacked a whopping 40 times last year. To address this issue, the Browns replaced tackles Greg Robinson and Chris Hubbard with former Tennessee Titans tackle Jack Conklin. According to Pro Football Focus, this is a massive upgrade as Robinson was the 41st-ranked tackle while Conklin ranked tenth.
To further help the offensive line issues, Cleveland drafted Alabama tackle Jedrick Wills with the tenth overall pick. Wills looks to solidify the left tackle position and projects to be a starter right away.
Another reason for Mayfield’s year two struggles was the disconnect between him and head coach Freddie Kitchens. Kitchens was let go and is replaced by former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski should be able to build rapport quickly with Mayfield as he was a former quarterbacks coach for Minnesota as well. Under Stefanski’s tutelage, Case Keenum had his best season as a professional with a better than 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The schedule should also be much kinder to Mayfield in 2020. The Browns play 10 of their 16 games against teams that ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass defense last year.
The Case for the Under
Baker Mayfield’s decline in 2019 is worrisome as he heads into 2020. Though he had 48 more attempts than in 2018, his yardage only increased by 102 yards. Mayfield had trouble protecting the football, as he threw 21 interceptions compared to just 22 touchdowns.
Though Cleveland’s offensive line figures to be improved, perhaps they use this strength to bolster their already successful running game. As a team, Cleveland ranked 12th in rushing last year while Nick Chubb was the league’s second-ranked rusher. If Mayfield continues to struggle to protect the football in year three, look for Cleveland to lean on Chubb and fellow running back Kareem Hunt even more.
It remains to be seen what kind of impact new coach Kevin Stefanski will have on Mayfield. In an offseason that is heavily impacted by COVID-19, learning a new system while not having much contact with your coaching staff can be difficult.
The Browns certainly do not have a lack of weapons on the outside. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry are one of the league’s best duos at receiver. However, all that talent did not help Mayfield last year. In a sport like football, chemistry may matter more than overall talent. Beckham Jr. has been a behavioral problem wherever he has gone, and not many head coaches have been successful managing his big ego. Kevin Stefanski has never been a head coach before, so does he have what it takes to build a cohesive locker room and have them gel on the field?
While the Browns face many games against the league’s worst pass defenses from a year ago, they still face two of the best in the league twice a year in Pittsburgh and Baltimore. In addition, they face another top-ten pass defense in Dallas and a much improved Philadelphia pass defense later in the year.
Conclusion
I am convinced that Cleveland did enough in the offseason to ensure Baker Mayfield has success in 2020. It cannot be understated how much a better offensive line can help improve this offense. In addition, bringing in former Atlanta Falcons tight end Austin Hooper is a big upgrade over David Njoku and gives Mayfield another weapon over the middle of the field.
Though Mayfield enjoyed a plethora of weapons last year, it can take time to gel. Perhaps last year was a “feeling out process†between him and Odell Beckham Jr. With another year under their belt together, look for them to be more in sync. They should also be invigorated by a new creative offensive system under Kevin Stefanski that proved to be successful in Minnesota.
As long as Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are threats for big yardage on the ground, that should create plenty of space to throw the football. Cleveland’s schedule is favorable, so they should be able to put up some points this year. Look for Mayfield to throw for a career-high in passing yards and exceed his projected total.
PICK: Baker Mayfield OVER 3899.5 Passing Yards
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | iHeartRadio
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.