Will Carson Wentz go Over/Under 3899.5 passing yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
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Unfortunately for fans of the Philadelphia Eagles, the 2019-20 season ended in an all-too-familiar fashion. Starting quarterback Carson Wentz failed to finish the season healthy for the third time in his four year career. Wentz was concussed early in the first quarter of Philadelphia’s 17-9 Wild Card playoff loss to the Seattle Seahawks. After he departed, the offense could not muster anything with backup Josh McCown under center.
When wagering on any player prop before a season starts, one must certainly account for the possibility of injury. That is what makes Carson Wentz’s prop so intriguing.
FanDuel Sportsbook has listed Wentz’s over/under for passing yards at 3899.5. Keep in mind, FanDuel’s rules stipulate that teams must play a full 16 game regular season for a player prop wager to stand.
This article will make the case for both the over and under for Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz’s regular-season total passing yards before ultimately making our prediction. In addition, we have identified a number of player props we love and will be releasing our picks as part of a series over the next month. Be sure to check back for our selections.
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Will Carson Wentz go Over/Under 3899.5 Passing Yards?
Over 3899.5 (-112) / Under 3899.5 (-112) (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Case for the Over
In his fourth year, Carson Wentz threw for a career-high 4,039 yards last season. He accomplished this despite missing most of his key receivers. DeSean Jackson played in just three games, Alshon Jeffery missed six, and Nelson Agholor sat out five games. It got so bad that Greg Ward Jr. and Deontay Burnett were the only wide receivers who caught passes in their 17-9 playoff loss to the Seahawks. Both of these receivers were former practice-squad players.
For you fantasy football enthusiasts, Wentz finished as QB10 despite the lack of proven weapons to throw the ball to.
To ensure that the injury bug does not deplete their roster again, the Eagles drafted three wide receivers and signed Marquise Goodwin. The most flashy wide receiver draftee was first-round pick, Jalen Reagor, out of TCU. The Eagles project to line up Reagor all over the field to maximize his 4.47 speed.
In addition to an expected healthier receiving corps, all of the Eagles running backs are good pass catchers as well. Philadelphia is counting on big things from Miles Sanders in his second year after he amassed more than 1,300 yards last year. In addition, both Boston Scott and Corey Clement can fill in on passing downs.
Head coach Doug Pederson is a former quarterback, so you know he will love to throw the football. The Eagles have a system in place for quarterbacks to succeed, as evident by backup Nick Foles’ Super Bowl run.
Lastly, a quick peek at Philadelphia’s schedule sees them play half their games against teams in the bottom half of pass defense last year. The Eagles get four games against the lowly Giants and Redskins. Even Dallas’s secondary figures to be worse now that Byron Jones left for Miami.
The Case for the Under
The narrative for the under on a passing yards prop for a player like Carson Wentz has to start with injury concern. As mentioned, Wentz suffered a concussion in the playoffs and marked the third straight season he failed to complete healthy. In 2017, he was seemingly on his way to winning MVP but missed the last three games with a torn ACL and LCL. In 2018, he missed final three games with a back vertebral fracture, though he avoided surgery. During the 2016 season, he suffered a hairline fracture in ribs though he did not miss any games. Lastly, before he got to the NFL in 2015 he had surgery on a broken bone in his throwing wrist.
Wentz’s total is set at 3899.5 passing yards, yet he has not topped 3,800 yards in any prior season. As a result of injury concerns surrounding Wentz, the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts from Oklahoma in the second round. Philadelphia would not spend a second-round pick on a quarterback if they were not concerned about Wentz. In addition, look for Hurts to be on the field in more packages as the season progresses.
The Eagles also got stronger on defense in the offseason. You may be wondering what does that have to do with Wentz? If the Eagles defense is better, it could lead to fewer pass attempts because the offense will not be in as many shootouts.
In the case for the over, the “glass half full†approach said that Philadelphia will play half their games against poor pass defenses. However, the “glass half empty†will say that Philadelphia plays six games this year against teams that ranked in the top ten in pass defense last year.
Conclusion
Though Carson Wentz has only topped 3,800 yards once, this is a result of injuries and not a lack of talent. During his stellar 2017 campaign, Wentz was on pace to throw for 4056 yards. In 2018, Wentz was on pace for 4,471 passing yards based on per game averages.
In addition, word from the Eagles front office suggests they want to be a more explosive offense this year. According to Ian Rapoport from the NFL Network, the Eagles plan to utilize their offensive weapons and throw the ball downfield more.
If one were to pick the under for Wentz’s passing yards, it would likely solely be based on the fact that he is not projected to play 16 games. Predicting injuries is an impossible thing to do. Instead, we love Wentz’s upside and the fact that he is surrounded by the best weapons he has ever had.
PICK: Carson Wentz OVER 3899.5 Passing Yards
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.