Will Russell Wilson Go Over/Under 3949.5 Passing Yards? (2020 NFL Player Prop Bets)
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At BetMGM, there’s no shortage of NFL player props available to wager on for the upcoming 2020-21 season. Over/unders are posted for a number of quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers. We have identified some player props that we love, and we’ll be releasing our picks as part of a series over the next month. Be sure to check back for our selections.
This article focuses on Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson's regular-season total passing yards.
Check out all of our 2020 NFL Player Prop Bets here.
Will Russell Wilson Go Over/Under 3949.5 Passing Yards?
Over 3949.5 (-110) / Under 3949.5 (-112) (odds via BetMGM)
The Case for the Over
When wagering on season-long props, one must account for the possibility of injury impacting a player’s chances to reach their predicted total. However, injuries are not a concern whatsoever with Russell Wilson. In his eight-year career, he has yet to miss a single game.
Wilson has gone over the projected 3,949.5 yardage total in five of the last six years. Though Seattle is consistently one of the top rushing teams in the league, it is clear the coaching staff has expanded Wilson’s role. Three of his highest passing attempt totals have come in the last four seasons.
Russell Wilson enters 2020 with a lot of momentum. Last year, his 66.1% completion percentage was the second-highest of his career. In addition, his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 6.2:1 was easily the best of his career.
Wilson’s successful 2019 was due in large part to the emergence of wide receiver DK Metcalf. The big and physical rookie was tough to match up with on the outside. In addition, fellow receiver Tyler Lockett had his best season last year as he topped 1,000 yards for the first time in his career.
The Seahawks provided Wilson even more weapons this offseason with the additions of Greg Olsen and Philip Dorsett. Dorsett should slide right into three wide receiver sets, while Olsen pairs nicely with Will Dissly in two-tight end sets.
For all you fantasy football pundits, Wilson is as safe as they come at the quarterback position. Per FantasyPros expert Mike Tagliere, Russell Wilson has been a top-12 quarterback in each of his eight seasons. In addition, he has finished top-three on four different occasions.
A quick look at Seattle’s 2020 schedule appears to bode well for Wilson’s chances to go over his projected passing total. Seattle’s two crossover opponents are teams from the NFC East and AFC East. Five of those eight opponents alone ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass defense last year. In addition, they will face their division rival Arizona Cardinals twice who ranked 31st out of 32 teams.
The Case for the Under
As always with statistics, the numbers can be skewed any way you want them to be. Yes, Russell Wilson has gone over his projected 3,949.5 yardage total in five of the last six years. But what is his yearly yardage average in those years? 3,956.8, which beats his projection this year by just seven yards.
Wilson’s big year last year could have been attributed to Seattle’s running back injuries. Rashaad Penny missed the final five games of the season, while Chris Carson and C.J. Prosise each missed the final three. Things got so desperate for Seattle that they resorted to signing Marshawn Lynch for another stint late in the year.
With a healthy stable of running backs, perhaps Seattle gets back to their physical running attack. Seattle has ranked in the top three in rushing attempts per game each of the last two seasons.
While the Seahawks added more weapons for Wilson, the offensive line remains a concern. Wilson was sacked a league-high 48 times last year. In addition, Seattle lost two of their offensive tackles in George Fant and Germain Ifedi.
Lastly, depending on if you are an optimist or pessimist will determine how you view Seattle’s 2020 schedule. Yes, the NFC East and AFC East crossover opponents provide their share of weak secondaries. But they also possess the Patriots and Bills who were each ranked in the top four in the league in pass defense. In addition, their division rival San Francisco 49ers were the stingiest defense against the pass last season.
Conclusion
With the pandemic significantly disrupting offseason plans, teams with consistency on their rosters, and especially in their coaching staff will have a huge advantage entering this season. Russell Wilson has been with head coach Pete Carroll his entire career, so familiarity with the offense is not a question. Speaking of the offense, even Wilson wants the team to open up the offense this year. While Seattle has always been considered a run-first team, look for them to unleash even more of Wilson’s talents and for Wilson to take this offense to new heights.
PICK: Russell Wilson OVER 3949.5 Passing Yards
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.