WNBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Sunday (9/27)
The first round of the WNBA playoffs starts today. Let’s enjoy some Market-based EV WNBA picks to add to our betting portfolio. There’s some really good value on the board, so let’s get after it.
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Sunday’s Best +EV WNBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
A’ja Wilson Over 3.5 Assists (+137 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +110
- Market EV: +13%
A’ja Wilson has recorded at least four assists in six of her last 10 games. She’s nailed this line in 60% of her last 20 games and still has a +137 price tag to go over 3.5 assists in tonight’s game.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, this prop is listed at +137, but the fair value is around +110. That’s a 13% positive expected value. You don’t see a bet like that come around very often. Let’s back Wilson to gain at least four assists in today’s Game 1 matchup against the Indiana Fever.
Aliyah Boston Under 13.5 Points (+125 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +109
- Market EV: +8%
Aliyah Boston has rallied for at least 14 points in seven of her last 10 games. She’s also nailed this line in 75% of her last 20 games. But in her last five games, Boston has scored at least 14 points just twice.
Ultimately, Boston has averaged just 10 points in her last five games and will face the Aces on the road today.
Boston’s to go under 13.5 points is set at +125, but the fair value is +109. This is an 8% positive-expected-value play. That’s another massive bet to add to the betting portfolio.
Leonie Fiebich Under 7.5 Points (+127 at Novig)
- Fair Value: +112
- Market EV: +7%
The last time Leonie Fiebich scored at least eight points was back on August 29th. She’s scored no more than six points in four straight games and has seen her minutes drop over the last five games.
Still, Fiebich has a points line set at just 7.5, with the under listed at +127 odds. The fair value is +112, giving this play a 7% market EV. She’s hit this line in just one of her last five games and three times in her last 10 games.
I’ll gladly take the under at +127 on Novig. Over her last 30 games, Fiebich has gone over 7.5 points in just 43% of games. It’s only going to be more challenging in the playoffs. That’s when defenses start to rise. Minnesota won’t make it easy, either.