WNBA Picks & Predictions: +EV Best Bets for Thursday (7/30)
There are three WNBA matchups on the horizon tonight. Therefore, I took a peek at the Market-based EV page, looking for valuable wagers. I’ve landed on a few and shared my top WNBA picks below.
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Thursday’s Best +EV WNBA Picks
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated | Odds courtesy of Hard Rock Bet
Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 21.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (+105)
- Fair Value: -105
- Market EV: +5%
Olivia Nelson-Ododa just recorded a combined 23 points + rebounds + assists in her last game against Washington. However, she’s only hit this line in 46% of games this season and has nailed this line in only two of her last 15 games against the Chicago Sky.
Nelson-Ododa has averaged a combined 10.3 points + rebounds + assists against the Sky over a 15-game stretch.
Meanwhile, you can bet on her to go under 21.5 combined points + rebounds + assists at +105 on Hard Rock Bet. The consensus fair value is -105. That’s some strong value for tonight’s WNBA action.
Chelsea Gray Over 12.5 Points (+100)
- Fair Value: -106
- Market EV: +3%
Over the last 10 games, Chelsea Gray has scored at least 13 points in three consecutive games. Additionally, she’s added at least 14 points in four of her last five games and has played nearly 32 minutes per game during that span. In those five games, Gray has taken almost 10 shots per game and has shot over 52% from the field. She just shot 67% on nine shots in her last game.
That said, you can bet on Gray to score at least 13 points at +100 on Hard Rock Bet, when the fair value is settled at -106. That’s another strong play to consider for tonight’s WNBA slate.
Sydney Taylor Over 17.5 Points (-105)
- Fair Value: -109
- Market EV: +2%
Before the All-Star break, Sydney Taylor finished with 31 points against the New York Liberty on July 22nd. She got to the line multiple times and took many shots, despite playing only 26 minutes.
Taylor hasn’t been a premier scorer all season. However, she’s scored at least 18 points in four of her last five games and is really starting to become a vocal point of the Chicago offense. Taylor has attempted over 13 shots per game over the last 10 games and has shot about 49% from the field. Additionally, she’s drilled 41% from downtown during that stretch.
At Hard Rock Bet, you can bet on her to go over 17.5 points at -105, but the true value is -109. It doesn’t seem like a lot, but if you can stack up these 2% wins, you’ll likely see long-term profit.