Women’s College Basketball Odds & Picks: Fresno State vs. USC (Tuesday)

by Travis Pulver |
Dec 10, 2024

The Fresno State Bulldogs have a tough one in store for them tonight as they take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles at the Galen Center. The action gets underway at 9 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network.

Fresno State is off to a good start at 7-3, but the No. 5 Trojans are still heavy favorites (-43.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook). But if this game ends up being anything like the last time these two teams played in Los Angeles (more on that in a moment), bettors may want to think twice before laying the points.

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Fresno State vs. USC Betting Preview

(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Details

Betting Line: USC -43.5 (-105) | O/U: 135.5 (-110/-110)
Location: USC Galen Center in Los Angeles, CA
Start Time: 9 p.m. ET
Coverage: BTN
Last Meeting: November 28, 2018 - USC won 62-61

Overview

When these two teams last met in L.A. during the 2018-19 season, Fresno State was in good shape - not too unlike how they are this season. They had bounced back from a season-opening loss to Northern Arizona to win three in a row.

Fresno State is off to a solid start this season (7-3). They have bounced back from back-to-back losses at the end of November, including a massive defeat at the hands of No. 1 UCLA. But the University Tennessee of Martin and the University of California, Merced aren’t exactly the cream of the women’s college basketball crop.

USC, on the other hand, enters the game as the No. 5-ranked team in the nation, with an 8-1 record. The lone loss was to No. 6 Notre Dame, 74-61. They have since rattled off four consecutive wins, three by 30+ points, and a 13-point win over Oregon, their first Big Ten win.

USC has an incredibly dynamic duo in Kiki Iriafen and JuJu Watkins. Not only have they scored in double digits in every game this season for the Trojans, but they became just the second duo in school history to put up 30+ each in a single game (November 29 vs. Saint Louis).

However, Fresno State’s defense has held opponents to an average of 62.4 points per game this season. Maybe they can put up a fight? Or this one could play out similarly to the Bulldogs’ recent massive defeat, 97-41, at the hands of No. 1 UCLA.

Trends

USC has dominated the all-time series vs. Fresno State 6-1; the Bulldogs’ one win came in Fresno during the 2012-2013 season (65-60).
Every matchup has been somewhat competitive, with the final score separated by no more than nine points in every game but one (November 23, 2014: USC won 68-50).
The Trojans have not lost a home game to an unranked opponent this early in the season since dropping a game to Missouri State during the 2021-22 season (USC struggled that season, finishing with a 12-16 record).
Fresno State has not defeated a ranked team on the road in 10+ seasons.

Bottom Line

Fresno State is not a bad team, but we are not talking about facing another small school team like Fresno Pacific or Santa Clara. They are facing USC, a women’s college basketball blue blood and the No. 5 team in the country. There is a chance they can keep it competitive for a half.

But can they do it for the whole game? Don’t count on it. However, while USC will win convincingly, I’m not convinced they’ll cover a massive 43.5-point spread.

Pick: Fresno State +43.5 (-115)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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