2020 NFC South Over/Under Win Totals Predictions

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The NFC South is likely to be the most talked about, analyzed, and scrutinized division in the league this year. That newfound attention is largely the result of one offseason move: Tom Brady is a Buccaneer.

The all-time winningest quarterback could not see eye-to-eye with the Patriots’ front office, and he instead signed a two-year deal with Tampa Bay. In addition to Brady’s news, another Hall of Fame-bound quarterback Drew Brees signed a two-year deal. Do Brees and the Saints have another Super Bowl run together?

Also, will the Atlanta Falcons return to the playoffs after a three-year absence? And what kind of job can new head coach Matt Rhule do in his first season in Carolina?

This is the seventh of an eight-part series where we break down the best season win total bets of every division. And here are all of our 2020 NFL Over/Under Win Totals Predictions. These odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

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Atlanta Falcons (Over 7.5 -110, Under 7.5 -110)

For the Falcons to surpass their projected win total, they need to be one win better than last year’s 7-9 record. Atlanta’s first priority should be getting better on the defensive side of the ball. Their defense ranked 20th in terms of yards allowed and 23rd in points per game.

One of the biggest problems on defense was their inability to pressure the quarterback. Atlanta finished tied for 29th in the league with just 28 sacks on the season. To help in that department, the Falcons signed former Jaguars edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr., who already has lofty goals.

In addition to Fowler, Atlanta was able to sign running back Todd Gurley to an inexpensive contract. If Gurley’s balky knee can hold up, Atlanta found themselves a steal for one-year and $6M. To replace the departed Austin Hooper, the Falcons traded for Hayden Hurst from the Ravens.

I do not see much value in betting Atlanta’s win total. Optimists who think they will improve by one win will say they can only get better defensively. Pessimists will look at their schedule and see road games against Dallas, Green Bay, Kansas City, and Minnesota — in addition to four combined games against the Saints and new-look Buccaneers.

The Falcons have all the pieces on offense to push for a .500 record, but their defense remains too much of a mystery.

Verdict: Pass

Carolina Panthers (Over 5.5 -120, Under 5.5 +100)

New head coach Matt Rhule was hired by the Panthers in large part for his ability to turn teams around. In Rhule’s first year at Temple, the team went 2-10. When he left four years later, the Owls had just won ten games for the second straight year.

In his first year at Baylor, Rhule’s team went just 1-11. Three years later his Bears won 11 games and earned an invitation to the Sugar Bowl.

While Rhule has a great long-term record with new teams, it usually takes time for those teams to gel. Carolina spent most of the offseason stripping its roster of older veterans with big contracts and replacing them with younger and more inexpensive players. This ideal is most evident in signing Teddy Bridgewater to a three-year deal while releasing Cam Newton and saving a bunch of cap space in the process.

It does not appear like a complete rebuild in Carolina, as they signed wide receiver Robby Anderson to give Bridgewater a deep threat. In addition, the Panthers can address a weak defensive front with the No. 7 overall draft pick if Derrick Brown from Auburn is still on the board.

In the long run, Panthers fans will likely come to appreciate the Rhule hiring. However, his teams take time to grow into contenders and tend to struggle in year one. Look for that trend to continue, especially considering they appear the worst team in arguably the most competitive division in the NFL this year.

Verdict: Take Carolina UNDER 5.5 wins

New Orleans Saints (Over 10.5 -110, Under 10.5 -110)

New Orleans’ projected win total is 10.5, which is surprising, considering that they have not won fewer than 11 games for three consecutive years. With Drew Brees back under center, the Saints have all the pieces for a fourth-consecutive division title.

While the Saints were not tremendously active in the offseason, I love two of their biggest transactions. New Orleans added veterans in two spots with wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and safety Malcolm Jenkins. Though he just turned 33 years old, Sanders is still a threat on the outside. Look for him to take defensive pressure off their No. 1 receiver Michael Thomas. In addition, Jenkins will serve as a leader and mentor for the younger players in the secondary.

There is no better compliment to speak of how well-constructed the Saints roster is than the fact that they went 5-0 in Brees’ absence last year. That fact can also be contributed to how well Teddy Bridgewater played. Now that Bridgewater is gone, there is more of a need to keep Brees upright and healthy all year, although the Saints have shown they can thrive in short spurts without him.

While New Orleans has lost at home in the playoffs in three consecutive years, the Superdome still offers one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL. The Saints will benefit from having most of their toughest opponents coming to New Orleans, namely the Chiefs, 49ers, Packers, and Vikings.

Drew Brees will not let his team reminisce and sulk over their heartbreaking playoff losses. He will pick his team up once again and have them as contenders for another Super Bowl, which starts with a fourth-straight division title.

Verdict: Take New Orleans OVER 10.5 wins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over 9 -139, Under 9 +115)

It seems too easy to take Tampa Bay’s over this year, doesn’t it? In the 16 years that Tom Brady has played a full 16 games, he went 9-7 once and never was worse than 10-6 in the other 15 years. In addition, when he started just 12 games in 2016 he had an 11-1 record.

However, bettors should be reminded that all of this was done in a weaker AFC East while playing for the greatest coach of all time.

Optimists about Tampa Bay’s upcoming season will point to Brady’s 12-4 record with the Patriots last year. He accomplished this while being surrounded with arguably the worst offensive supporting cast of his career. Brady will have no shortage of offensive weapons in Tampa Bay with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate.

While the Buccaneers appear loaded on offense, the fact is their offensive line is much worse than what Brady had in New England. Brady is perhaps the least-mobile quarterback in the NFL, so he needs great protection and a clean pocket. In addition, New England’s stable of running backs were better than what Brady now has in Ronald Jones and Dare Ogunbowale.

As great a quarterback as Brady is, the fact that he is entering a brand new system cannot be understated. Sure, head coach Bruce Arians has a great track record working with quarterbacks such as Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Andrew Luck. However, he and Brady will have to get on the same page very quickly. With the coronavirus likely impacting preseason workouts, that will be easier said than done.

Verdict: Pass

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.