2020 NFC West Over/Under Win Totals Predictions

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The NFC West has been the most dominant division in the NFC in recent memory. Five of the last eight Super Bowl representatives have come from the NFC West. Dating back to 2009, every member of the division has made at least one Super Bowl appearance. In that time, only the Seattle Seahawks have gone on to win the championship.

Last year, the NFC West was the only division that had three teams win nine or more games. The only team that did not accomplish that was the Arizona Cardinals, who may have a claim to be the most improved team this off-season.

Will there be more reshuffling in the division standings this year? Can a third straight NFC West team represent the conference in the Super Bowl?

This is the last of an eight-part series where we break down the best season win total bets of every division. And here are all of our 2020 NFL Over/Under Win Totals Predictions. These odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

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Arizona Cardinals (Over 7 -115, Under 7 -105)

Last year, the Cardinals endured a brutal stretch from late October to early December that saw them lose six consecutive games. However, they rebounded to win two of their last three games and look to carry that momentum into this season. For Arizona to exceed their projected win total, they need to be three wins better than their 5-10-1 record last year.

Trading for stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins will help. To acquire him, the Cardinals parted ways with oft-injured David Johnson and two draft picks, including this year’s second-round pick. Hopkins is the epitome of durability as he has missed just one game due to injury in his seven-year career. He gives quarterback Kyler Murray an extra threat on the outside along with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk.

Murray looks to build on a successful year last year that saw him win the NFL AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. He threw for 3,722 yards and ran for 544 more. He accounted for 24 total touchdowns but needs to cut down on his 12 interceptions.

In addition to the Hopkins acquisition, Arizona looked to bolster a defense that finished worst in the league in yards allowed last year. They signed defensive tackle Jordan Phillips as well as linebackers Devon Kennard and De’Vondre Campbell.

As exciting as the Cardinals are going to be to watch on offense in 2020, I am not sure their three defensive acquisitions move the needle enough to improve on last year’s woeful numbers. Arizona will surely look for more defensive depth in the draft. However, their range of outcomes with how much of a mystery their defense will be makes Arizona’s season win total untouchable in my eyes.

Verdict: Pass

Los Angeles Rams (Over 8.5 -139, Under 8.5 +115)

Some will say the Los Angeles Rams suffered a Super Bowl hangover last year after failing to reach the playoffs. Optimists will say a 9-7 record in the NFL’s toughest division is nothing to sneeze at. Either way, the Rams will need another nine-win effort to hit the over on their projected win total.

For the last three seasons, the Rams were at their best when Todd Gurley was running roughshod over opponents. In 2017 and 2018, Gurley posted consecutive 1,250+ yard seasons while leading the league in rushing touchdowns both years. However, in 2019 a balky knee issue limited his effectiveness all year and the Rams offense suffered as a whole.

It is clear that Gurley’s injury affected quarterback Jared Goff’s performance. Last year, Goff had his worst year in the last three seasons. His touchdown total was way down and his 16 interceptions were more than double what he had in 2017. Gurley is now gone, and more of the offensive load will need to be shouldered by Goff and the passing game.

Another thing that worries me about Los Angeles entering 2020 is the absence of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Phillips is considered one of the best coordinators in NFL history, but his contract was not renewed by the team. While Phillips brought a veteran presence and wealth of knowledge to Sean McVay’s staff three years ago, new hire Brandon Staley is anything but a veteran. The 37-year old Staley has spent the last three seasons coaching under Vic Fangio with the Bears and Broncos. He has never been a coordinator before, instead serving as outside linebackers coach.

Having new identities on offense and defense does not exactly breed confidence in the Rams entering this season. Look for Jared Goff to struggle without his security blanket in Gurley and for the defense to take a step back under their new young coordinator.

Verdict: Take Los Angeles UNDER 8.5 wins

San Francisco 49ers (Over 10.5 -145, Under 10.5 +120)

While the Rams suffered a Super Bowl hangover in 2019, will the 49ers do the same in 2020?

The 49ers roster remains largely intact from last year minus two big losses. San Francisco traded defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the Colts, while wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders signed as a free agent with the Saints. The 49ers have two first-round draft picks (No. 13 and No. 31) so it will be interesting to see if they look for replacements for their two departed players right away.

Last year, San Francisco boasted the No. 2 total defense and No. 4 total offense. That is a recipe that will win a lot of football games, but it is also one that is hard to replicate.

It will take three fewer wins than a year ago for the 49ers to go under their projected win total. What does the schedule have in store for them in 2020? San Francisco has non-divisional road games against Dallas, New England and New Orleans. Two additional road games against the Giants and Jets appear winnable. However, if those games are slotted at 1:00 ET they are much more difficult on the west coast 49ers.

San Francisco will surely be logging a lot of miles this year. Will the busy travel take a toll on them throughout the year? Will there be a Super Bowl hangover? Can the 49ers overcome the losses of Buckner and Sanders? Those questions are awfully difficult to answer.

Verdict: Pass

Seattle Seahawks (Over 9.5 +125, Under 9.5 -150)

Based on the juice on either side of this over/under, it appears oddsmakers are leaning towards Seattle to go under their projected win total. I completely disagree, and will be “all in” on the over this year.

When projecting win totals for any NFL team, one has to take into account the impact that COVID-19 will have on off-season preparation and team workouts. Thus, teams with veteran quarterbacks and coaching staffs that remained intact from last year figure to have an advantage over teams with younger players or new coaches trying to implement new schemes. Seattle checks both of these boxes as Russell Wilson along with head coach Pete Carroll and both coordinators return. The Seahawks did make some minor adjustments and added three new coaches, but none of these moves appear to disrupt their preparation for the season.

Seattle made key off-season moves on both sides of the ball. They added four new offensive linemen to work into their rotation. In addition, they signed tight end Greg Olsen to work in tandem with Luke Willson whom they extended on a one-year deal. Defensively, Seattle attempted to beef up their pass rush by reuniting with Bruce Irvin. They also re-signed Jarran Reed and traded for cornerback Quinton Dunbar.

For Seattle to fail to surpass their projected win total, they need to be two wins worse than last year. I do not see a reason why Seattle would drop off that far. Surely, if they lose Jadeveon Clowney to free agency it would be a big loss for the defense. However, there is still a chance they re-sign him.

Outside of trips to Buffalo and Philadelphia, Seattle gets many of their toughest non-divisional opponents at home. With the leg up that Seattle has with veteran players and coaches in a compromised off-season, take the gift from oddsmakers with great odds and bet the over.

Verdict: Take Seattle OVER 9.5 wins

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.