2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Exact Order of First Three Picks
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There are many prop bets available for the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft. Most of these prop bets have a hefty vig attached to them. For example at FanDuel, Joe Burrow is -3500 to be the first overall pick. Chase Young is -480 to be the second overall pick. Even some of the draft position props, like Tua Tagovailoa’s over 2.5 draft position has odds of -430.
Though some of these bets seem like locks, the steep price tag may keep many people from wagering on them. If you prefer a prop bet with much better odds, take a look at the First Three Picks- Exact Order prop bet.
For this bet to cash, one must correctly predict the first three selections of the draft in order. While there are a lot of variations and possibilities, you will not find better value as each scenario has odds of +100 or higher.
Let’s take a look at some of the options to wager on, along with our best bets for how the first three picks will go. (odds courtesy of FanDuel).
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The Favorite
1. Joe Burrow 2. Chase Young 3. Tua Tagovailoa (+100)
While there are many possible outcomes for the order of the first three picks, it is basically a foregone conclusion that Joe Burrow goes No. 1 overall to the Cincinnati Bengals. Thus, the hard part is to determine how the second and third picks will shake out.
Chase Young is considered the clear-cut best defensive player in the draft. The Washington Redskins own the second pick and could absolutely use a dominant pass rusher like Young. Washington has been rumored to have their eye on Tua as well, but many do not think they will move on from Dwayne Haskins after just one year in the league. Unless the Redskins get wowed with a trade offer from a team looking for a quarterback, Young is likely the second pick.
According to oddsmakers, the third pick is where things can get interesting. The Detroit Lions do not need a quarterback as Matthew Stafford is just 32 years old. If Tua were to be selected third, he would likely be selected by a team that moved up via trade to get him. The Patriots and Saints would need to move up at least 20 picks. Or, the Dolphins and Chargers may also try to beat each other out for the rights to Tua. Miami and Los Angeles would only have to move up two and three spots respectively.
Best Value Bet
1. Joe Burrow 2. Tua Tagovailoa 3. Chase Young (+300)
This option has the same three players as the betting favorite, just in a different order. This bet has appeal for two reasons. The first is that it leaves open the possibility of the Redskins drafting Tua and not entertaining trade offers. New head coach Ron Rivera does not have any ties to current starter Dwayne Haskins. The Redskins already traded a fifth-round pick for former Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen. Was that just the start of their quarterback shuffling?
The other reason to like this bet is the possibility that teams will not gamble and wait until the third pick to trade up for Tua. If Tua impresses in his workouts, look for teams to contact Washington and ask how much it will cost to move up to No. 2.
If Tua does get drafted second overall, the Lions would likely not pass on Chase Young. The Lions have a glaring need at cornerback since they traded Darius Slay to Philadelphia. Thus, Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah has been a popular name linked to the Lions in many mock drafts. However, Okudah makes more sense if Chase Young was picked at No. 2 and not if Young was still on the board.
Best Longshot
1. Joe Burrow 2. Chase Young 3. Justin Herbert (+3300)
With COVID-19 limiting players’ ability to hold workouts or meet with scouts, that may cause teams to draft players with fewer uncertainties and question marks. Tua recently posted a workout on social media, and his injury updates from last month seemed positive. However, in a normal year, teams would do their due diligence on Tua before drafting him. They would meet with his doctors and consult with Tua directly to make sure there are no lingering injury concerns. With travel restrictions among many of the coronavirus obstacles, teams will not be able to properly evaluate Tua.
This bet presents the option that a team still trades up to No. 3 to draft a quarterback, just not Tua. Justin Herbert has not had the long list of injuries and surgeries that Tua has had. Herbert has the size, arm strength, and athleticism needed to succeed in the NFL. He does not have the upside that Tua has, but he does not have many question marks either.
The order of Burrow, Young and, Herbert has a better chance of happening than oddsmakers give it credit for. At +3300 odds, it is absolutely worth a flier.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.