2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Mekhi Becton Draft Position
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The 2020 NFL Draft is just days away. At BettingPros we have been taking a look at a host of different NFL Draft props, but one of the most thought-provoking and intriguing props that sportsbooks offer is the draft position props. These props allow you to combine research, projections, and your own prognostication skills together to try to peg where particular prospects may be drafted. Some of the listed props at BetMGM appear to be more appealing than others, but the truth is, no one really knows what NFL front offices are thinking. BetMGM has done a tremendous job of setting their lines which gives us a lot to consider in terms of where the value lies. Let’s dig in.
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The Odds
2020 NFL Draft – Mekhi Becton draft position
Over 8.5 (-110)
Under 8.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
The Player
Mekhi Becton (LT – Louisville)
Mekhi Becton is a massive left tackle who is NFL ready in the run game. A mauler who has a lot of room to grow and add strength, Becton has All-Pro upside. He is still a work in progress in pass protection but has shown enough promise to warrant being the first player drafted at his position. He is not as polished as Georgia’s Andrew Thomas, but his upside will have him ahead of Thomas on more than a few NFL draft boards.
Becton settled into the left tackle position this past season, after previously being moved in-game from left to right depending on which direction the play called for. It was a great move for Becton’s career trajectory, as he improved by leaps and bounds, and is now viewed as one of the 2020 NFL Draft’s top 10 talents. While he was one of the stars of the NFL Combine, his impressive performance did little to elevate his draft stock. Becton was already viewed as one of the top two left tackle prospects in the class.
The draft position for this prop requires us to take a look at the possibility of Mekhi Becton being drafted before ninth overall. The teams that currently have picks from one to eight are the Cincinnati Bengals, Washington, the Detroit Lions, the New York Giants, the Miami Dolphins, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Carolina Panthers, and the Arizona Cardinals. The Cincinnati Bengals can be eliminated as they are all but certain to be drafting a quarterback.
Mekhi Becton is one of the top overall talents in the 2020 NFL Draft class. He is arguably the top talent at his position, as is a candidate to go as early as second overall. He has been linked to the New York Giants at fourth overall, but those projections involve both Washington and the Detroit Lions keeping their draft positions. His floor appears to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 14th overall. Let’s take a look at the teams picking from second overall to eighth overall to analyze team fit, and the potential that one of those clubs calls Becton’s name on draft day.
The Teams
Washington (2nd overall)
Washington is expected to draft Chase Young if they keep the second overall pick. With Trent Williams forcing his way out of town, they have a massive need at left tackle, but Chase Young is the type of prospect they will be hard-pressed to pass on. If Washington moves back to fifth or sixth overall, Mekhi Becton will be in play if he is still on the board. It would be a monumental surprise if Washington kept the second overall pick and selected Becton.
Detroit Lions (3rd overall)
The Detroit Lions are expected to select Jeffrey Okudah or Derrick Brown if they stand pat with the third overall pick. Like Washington, the Detroit Lions are likely weighing offers from teams that are chasing Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. If Detroit trades back to a position where Okudah and Brown have both been drafted, Becton will become a strong consideration if still on the board. With that being said, Detroit is expected to lean defense unless they move back to a point where an offensive value is too good to pass up.
New York Giants (4th overall)
If the draft order stays the same in terms of which teams in the top three are picking, then Mekhi Becton becomes a very real possibility at fourth overall. The Giants have Nate Solder, but after suffering the worst blown block rate of his career in 2019, he appears to be in decline. Adding Becton would allow New York to shift Solder to the right side, and have a potential franchise left tackle to protect Daniel Jones. Becton would provide a massive boost to the running game, something that increases in importance due to Daniel Jones’ athleticism and scrambling ability. Becton makes some sense at fourth overall if New York keeps its pick, and players like Chase Young or Jeffrey Okudah do not drop to them. With that being said, if the Giants draft an offensive lineman in the first round it will mark the first time that general manager Dave Gettleman has ever used a first-round pick on the position.
Miami Dolphins (5th overall)
Miami is chasing a quarterback with the first of their three first-round picks. They may wind up trading up to ensure they land Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert, but would probably be better off standing pat at fifth overall. There is a slight chance that Miami stays at fifth overall and misses out on both Tua and Herbert. If they refuse to pay the ransom that Washington, Detroit, or New York are asking for their picks, and decide to gamble on one of their guys being there at fifth overall, they may see Tua, Herbert, and Chase Young go between second and fourth overall. In this scenario alone Miami would start to consider the left tackles Mekhi Becton and Andrew Thomas. They have needs all across their offensive line, and traded franchise left tackle Laremy Tunsil to the Houston Texans in the middle of last season. Miami is not a projected landing spot for Becton, but he could end up there if the scenario above plays out.
Los Angeles Chargers (6th overall)
The Los Angeles Chargers are another team that appears to have their sights set on a first-round quarterback. However, if they refuse to pay the price to move up, they may be faced with a Jordan Love versus best player available scenario. If Joe Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Young, and Okudah all go in the top five, players like Mekhi Becton, Andrew Thomas, Derrick Brown, and Isaiah Simmons will likely top their list as the best players available. Whether or not they are high enough on Love to select him at sixth overall remains to be seen, but their recent history at the position suggests that they just might be. The Chargers recently signed Bryan Bulaga, but both Becton and Bulaga have enough versatility to play at either end. With that being said, there is a small probability at best that Becton lands with Los Angeles.
Carolina Panthers (7th overall)
It would be a surprise to see the Carolina Panthers go with Mekhi Becton if they keep the seventh overall pick. They have needs all over their offensive line, but just selected Greg Little last season, and made one of the most confusing trades of the offseason by trading Trai Turner for Russell Okung. Stranger things have happened in the NFL Draft, but with two starter worthy left tackles on the roster, the Panthers are not a likely fit for Mekhi Becton. An offensive tackle makes sense to me personally, but the Panthers may be more interested in the best player available. The top players potentially available at this point of the draft will be Isaiah Simmons, Derrick Brown, or possibly Jeffrey Okudah. Isaiah Simmons has been the most popular projection, largely due to the sudden retirement of future Hall of Fame middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Derrick Brown makes some sense as the Panthers are deplorable in the middle of their defensive line. Brown can play the one or zero technique and fits into their scheme. Jeffrey Okudah would also help fill a big need following the departure of James Bradberry. The Panthers are not a likely match for Mekhi Becton.
Arizona Cardinals (8th overall)
If Mekhi Becton is not drafted at fourth overall by the New York Giants, his next sweet spot may be the Arizona Cardinals at eighth overall. The Arizona Cardinals need to fortify their offensive line to protect Kyler Murray, and will at least consider Mekhi Becton, Andrew Thomas, Jedrick Wills, and possibly even Tristan Wirfs. D.J. Humphries was strong enough to land a three-year deal earlier this offseason, so Becton may start his career on the right side if drafted by Arizona. With that being said, the Cardinals are projected to target the top defensive player on the board, and will likely choose Derrick Brown, Isaiah Simmons, or Jeffrey Okudah over an offensive lineman if given the opportunity.
Conclusion
While the current draft order is projected to change, at the current time there only appears to be two probable landing spots for Mekhi Becton in the top eight picks of the 2020 NFL Draft. However, both of those teams are projected to target players on the defensive side of the ball. Becton has top eight, or even top-five upside and talent, but the wealth of elite defensive options available coupled with the top three quarterbacks means we could see one or fewer offensive linemen drafted before ninth overall. Becton will top the draft boards of teams who value upside over floor but may not be viewed as the best scheme fit by the teams who will actually consider an offensive lineman in the top eight. With -110 odds on both sides, the value here lies on the over. It would not be a surprise to see a team draft Becton in the top eight, but the more likely scenario is that he is drafted somewhere between ninth and 14th overall.
The pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.