2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Total Defensive Linemen Drafted in the First Round

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The 2020 NFL Draft is only a few weeks away. While COVID-19 has tempered the fever pitch normally associated with the draft at this time of the year, that has not stopped sportsbooks from releasing tons of props for their betting patrons to gamble on.

There are a number of 2020 NFL Draft props that we have already covered, and you can read about them here. Today I’ll focus on the total number of defensive lineman drafted in the first round, a prop that’s offered by our friends at BetMGM. Let’s take a look at the odds and the candidates. 

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2020 NFL Draft: Total Defensive Linemen Drafted in the First Round

Over 4.5 (+110)
Under 4.5 (-143)
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook

The Locks

Chase Young (DE – Ohio State)
Chase Young is the most talented player in the 2020 NFL Draft. He looks like a lock to go in the top four, and he will likely only slip out of the top two if Washington decides to trade out of the second overall pick. Despite lacking in technique, Young already has Pro Bowl level talent. His blend of speed, explosion, and power is going to make him one of the most feared pass rushers in the entire NFL. The sky is truly the limit for Chase Young. 

Derrick Brown (DT – Auburn)
Often discussed as the only player in the draft who can rival Chase Young in raw talent, Derrick Brown is a defensive tackle with massive strength and explosiveness. He has universal scheme fit appeal, as he can easily become a star as a three-tech in an even front, or as a zero or one-tech in a 3-4 defense. While Brown should be off the board by 10th overall, there is no way he makes it past the San Francisco 49ers at 13th overall. 

Javon Kinlaw (DT – South Carolina)
While Javon Kinlaw is still more pass rusher than run stopper at this stage of his career, one has to remember that he only started playing football in his senior year of high school. He flashes enough upside on tape that there has been some debate whether or not some teams may prefer him to Derrick Brown, a player who would likely be considered the most talented player in this draft class if not for Chase Young. Kinlaw is a havoc creator with a great first step. He is versatile enough to play in either front, and he possesses some ready-to-mold upside. Kinlaw should hear his name called before 14th overall. 

Likely First-Round Guys

K’Lavon Chaisson (Edge – LSU)
K’Lavon Chaisson was an absolute force for LSU. His motor runs non-stop, but he is more inconsistent than one would like from someone with his obvious tools and skillset. Chaisson could hear his name called as soon as the early teens, and he’s a legitimate fit for any defensive front. An explosive speed rusher with good hip fluidity, Chaisson may have increased appeal to teams that run a 3-4 defense. He has first-round talent, and he will likely be scooped up at the tail end of Day One if he slips. 

The Hopefuls

A.J. Epenesa (DE – Iowa)
An NFL-ready edge prospect, A.J. Epenesa could be highly coveted by teams who are more concerned with floor than upside. Epenesa projects as a long-term starter, but he does not possess the upside of some of the names that will inevitably be drafted after him. Routinely discussed as a first-round pick, Epenesa has done nothing to dissuade those who see a plug-and-play starter on tape. While he is not great against the run, he is solid enough, and he can make vast improvements with the help of an NFL-caliber position coach. Epenesa has a far range of draft outcomes, as he could be selected in the top-20 or fall out of the first round altogether.

Yetur Gross-Matos (DE – Penn State)
Yetur Gross-Matos is the other defensive end most commonly associated with being a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. A penetrating pressure generator who is great on stunts, Gross-Matos is arguably the second-best run defending edge prospect in this year’s class. It’s going to be hard for the teams that pick in the last 12 to pass on someone with as complete of a game as the Penn State defensive end. He is not a lock to go in the first round, but it would come as no surprise if he went before both K’Lavon Chaisson and A.J. Epenesa. 

The Bubble

The bubble for this prop is jam-packed with prospects with first-round talent who may fall out of the first due to the top-level rookies available at nearly every position. Julian Okwara has top-15 talent, but he may end up slipping due to teams not being able to examine the progress of the broken fibula that prematurely ended his final college season. Curtis Weaver from Boise State is perhaps the most complete defensive end prospect in the draft. He can rush, play the run, and defend the pass. He will at least be considered by some teams picking in the second half of the first round. Bradlee Anae and Josh Uche made themselves some money during Senior Bowl week. They both have dominant tape, but they started separating themselves from the day-two types with their strong pre-draft process. They will both get sniffs in the first. Finally, there are three defensive tackles that are expected to get long, hard looks in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft: Auburn’s Marlon Davidson, Oklahoma’s Neville Gallimore, and TCU’s Ross Blacklock. 

Teams Looking for Defensive Line Help

Washington
Washington is thought to be heavily interested in Chase Young if they keep the second overall pick. Their defensive line is already the overwhelming strength of their team, but adding Chase will give them a playoff-caliber defense (especially with the expanded playoffs). If Washington trades back, however, they may choose to go with another position altogether. 

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars have needs all over both sides of the ball, but they are expected to pursue either Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw if one or both players are still on the draft board. They are dealing with major losses all along their defense, but Brown and Kinlaw should be the only defensive prospects available who offer value at ninth overall. In fact, with the way cornerbacks are drafted, Jacksonville may end up spending both of their first-round picks on the defensive line. 

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco still has a strong defensive line, but they will be looking to replace DeForest Buckner at some point in the draft. If Brown or Kinlaw drop to them at 13th overall, they will undoubtedly select one of the defensive tackles. It really comes down to pick 13, as they will be looking at trading out of their pick at 31st overall in order to pick up additional draft capital. The 49ers have the two firsts, but they will not pick again until the fifth round. 

Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings have a variety of needs to address, but perhaps none is more glaring than the void that Everson Griffen’s decision to test the free-agent waters has left on their defensive front. Defensive end, wide receiver, defensive tackle, and offensive tackle are expected to be their shopping list in the first two rounds. With two first to work with due to the Stefon Diggs trade, it would be a surprise if they did not spend at least one of their firsts on a Griffen replacement.

Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons seem to be in perennial need of defensive line help. The addition of Dante Fowler gives them some flexibility as far as what direction they go in the first round, but there is still work to be done on their defensive front. Takkarist McKinley actually regressed in his third season, and he saw his numbers drop off in sacks, pressures, and QB hits. They need an upgrade on the other side of the defensive line, and they may opt to finally solve their longstanding issue in the first round.

The Field
There are a number of other teams that will at least consider adding defensive line help in the first round, including two of the AFC’s elite in the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. While we’re on the topic of the AFC, the Tennessee Titans, the New York Jets, and the Miami Dolphins will be on the lookout for pass-rushing help. The NFC features a host of teams that will be looking to upgrade their pass-rushing fronts. The Seattle Seahawks and the Carolina Panthers are the most obvious candidates, but the New York Giants and the Detroit Lions will happily select Chase Young if they keep their pick and he slips to them. 

Conclusion

There is little doubt that there will be at least three defensive line prospects drafted in the first round. K’Lavon Chaisson is expected to be the fourth, so this bet comes down to whether or not one believes that a fifth prospect gets selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

With all the names discussed above, it would actually be an upset if at least five do not go in the first round. If Notre Dame had a Pro Day, and Julian Okwara was able to work out for teams, he would make this prop easy money. The value in this prop is definitely on the over, and it has nothing to do with being at plus money, as we would still be suggesting the over as the play if the odds were flipped. Take the over as a single unit play. 

The Pick: Over 4.5 (+110)

Here are all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets.

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.