2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets: Which Team Will Draft Justin Herbert?

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Although it’s become fairly clear that Joe Burrow will be the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the real excitement at the quarterback position is what happens after that. It seems like Tua Tagovailoa will be the second quarterback taken, but it’s hard to say. There are all sorts of varying grades on both him and Justin Herbert, which makes it hard to handicap just where they’ll both land.

Herbert appears to be the bigger wild card. Some people think he might even go above Tua, while others think it’s possible he’s the fourth quarterback taken after Jordan Love. BetMGM has posted props on the board for where Herbert will land, so let’s take a look at the options that make the most sense.

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Miami Dolphins

Odds To Draft Herbert: +130
The Dolphins are favored to land Herbert, but it seems like the latest rumors making their way around the mill is that they prefer others. To start, the Dolphins will probably take a stab at \ Joe Burrow and see if the Cincinnati Bengals are willing to accept a boatload of draft picks to let them have him. Beyond that, the other rumors we’re hearing is that the Dolphins will move up to get Tagovailoa at No. 3. We don’t know if that’s a smokescreen or not, but it seems like they’re not fully enamored with Herbert.

It’s interesting to note that the analytics crowd is not high on Herbert. ProFootballFocus’s latest analytics mock draft doesn’t even have him going in the first round. I expect the Dolphins to end up with Tagovailoa, not Herbert, so I wouldn’t bet them here.

Los Angeles Chargers

Odds To Draft Herbert: +170
Herbert to the Chargers makes a lot of sense. The Chargers are heading into next season with Tyrod Taylor as their starter. Even if that is truly their plan, he’s not a long-term solution to their problems. The team does tend to be on the frugal side, and drafting a quarterback and controlling him for the next four or five years on the cheap jives with how they do business. They can start the season with Taylor and see how it goes, and if it doesn’t work out, they can always plug in Herbert midseason. They don’t have to throw him into the fire.

The challenge is that the Chargers have a playoff-caliber defense, and if they can just get the offensive line some help, they might actually be decent enough on that side of the ball to get back to the postseason. Remember, that’s what this coaching staff needs to do to survive — they might not be thinking the long game here.

Even so, at No. 6, this is the team that makes the most sense. They have a gaping hole here, and they’ll be happy to have Herbert sit and develop slowly. And even if they have to use him now, he’d be stepping into a pretty good situation, all things considered.

Las Vegas Raiders

Odds To Draft Herbert: +1200
I would actually love a “Field” option here, as I do think there’s a chance that Herbert slides. After all, he really didn’t have a great final season at Oregon, and I think a lot of people are skeptical of him — even if his measurables look good. To me, Herbert is a guy that could fall a lot, and we see that with the latest analytics mock drafts — NFL.com has him going in the 20s to the New England Patriots, and PFF doesn’t even have him in the first round at all.

The Raiders are a team that makes sense, but really, my point here is that I would love a field option. We could see a really odd team wind up with him like the Patriots at No. 23, the New Orleans Saints at No. 24, or the Raiders at No. 19. I don’t think the Raiders carry three quarterbacks into the season, so I probably wouldn’t bet them, but a shot with the Patriots or the “Field” would be ideal.

But with the odds set up the way they are currently, the Chargers are the play to run with.

The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (+170)

Here are all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets.

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.