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Matthew Freedman’s 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card

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I’m good at two things in life: Eating food and prognosticating the NFL draft.

I just ate brunch, which means it’s time for me to start working on my 2023 NFL draft prop card.

Here are all of my 2023 NFL mock drafts.

Check out Kent Weyrauch’s 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card >>

Best 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bets

Over the past three years, I’m the No. 1 mocker in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. (I’ve manually gone through and added up all the points earned, as I have nothing better to do with my time.)

Over the past four years, I’m the No. 2 mocker — so let’s stick with the three-year window. “If you ain’t first, you’re last.”

Historically, I’ve done well betting on the draft.

  • 2019: 54-29 (+17.7 units)
  • 2020: 124-88 (+26.2 units)
  • 2021: 158-140 (+32.0 units)
  • 2022: 70-50 (+29.3 units)

In this piece are all of the draft bets that I’ve made so far. I will continue to update this piece as we approach the draft.

As I make more bets, I will post them first in the NFL draft channel in our FREE BettingPros Discord and then write up my bets for publication via article. To get my draft bets as quickly as possible, join Discord.

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

2022 NFL Draft Props

Will Levis: No. 1 Overall

  • Line: +800, +1000
  • Sportsbook: Caesars, BetMGM
  • Date: Jan. 14, Jan. 22
  • Units: 1, 1
  • Notes: I bet this first at +800 at Caesars, and I have added to my position with a +1000 bet at BetMGM. Bryce Young is small (listed at 6-0, 194 pounds), and talent evaluators already seem to be giving C.J. Stroud the Ohio State-based Justin Fields treatment (No. 11 in 2021, should’ve been top three). Levis has prototypical size (6-3, 232 pounds) and arm strength. He’ll appeal to the NFL decision makers who want a “traditional” quarterback, which makes him a real option at No. 1 in a class with this much uncertainty. Levis has seen his draft stock move up significantly since last summer, and I expect that momentum to sustain itself into the spring.

Graphic via Grinding the Mocks.

Will Anderson: No. 1 Defender

  • Line: +135
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Feb. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I was traveling when this market first went live at FanDuel, where Anderson opened at (I believe) +380, so I wasn’t able to bet it immediately. Oh well. There’s still value at this number. In my consensus of sharp mocks, Anderson has a mean of 2.64 and mode of 1. Jalen Carter (+100 frontrunner at FanDuel) has a mean of 2.76 and mode of 3. I think this is a coinflip between Anderson and Carter — but if one of them should be favored he should probably be Anderson.

Christian Gonzalez: No. 1 Defender

  • Line: +6000
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Feb. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Gonzalez goes in the top 10 of most sharp mocks, and I think he could be a post-combine riser. Given his size (6-1, 201 pounds), age (turns 21 in June) and pedigree (four stars), he could get some Jalen Ramsey/Patrick Surtain-esque hype if he flashes elite athleticism at the combine. Gonzalez isn’t likely to be the No. 1 defender, but I think his odds are better than the 1.64% probability implied at +6000.

Anthony Richardson: No. 1 Overall

  • Line: +1000
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Feb. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I’ve been slow on Richardson at No. 1 — but at least I’m still getting him at +1000 while he’s +500 to +700 across the market. I doubt this will happen. In only one sharp mock have I seen him go that high. But this is a flawed quarterback class, and of all the top prospects he’s the one most like Josh Allen. This is not unthinkable.

Jalin Hyatt: No. 1 Wide Receiver

  • Line: +600
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Feb. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: No one really stands out among the top five players at the position, but Hyatt is probably the fastest of the bunch. In high school he ran 100 meters in 10.45 seconds (200 in 21.14), so he can burn, and we’ve seen speedsters go high in the draft over the past five years. (Think Henry Ruggs as the No. 1 wide receiver in 2020). With an elite pre-draft workout and his 2022 Biltenikoff-winning campaign (67-1,267-15 receiving), Hyatt could emerge as the positional frontrunner.

Michael Mayer: Drafted Before Dalton Kincaid

  • Line: -120
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Mar. 4
  • Units: 1.2
  • Notes: Kincaid has gotten some hype recently: He goes off the board ahead of Mayer in Daniel Jeremiah’s most recent mock, and he’s No. 10 in Jeremiah’s most recent top 50 big board. I have a ton of respect for Jeremiah — but based on what I’m seeing he has an aggressive position on Kincaid. Mayer goes in Round 1 of 92% of the sharp mocks I’ve surveyed; Kincaid, 36%. Maybe you can make the argument that Jeremiah is way ahead of market sentiment, and that’s probably right: We’ll likely start to see Kincaid appear in more mocks and move up draft boards. But right now, Mayer is handily ahead of Kincaid on most big boards (The Athletic, Mock Draft Database, Arif Hasan). I would easily bet this to -150 and expect it to move toward Mayer.

Will Anderson: Over 3.5

  • Line: -140
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Mar. 29
  • Units: 1.4
  • Notes: This line was posted with -115 odds on both sides, and within four minutes it was at -140, where I bet it. I posted that in Discord and on Twitter, and as I’m typing this sentence the over has finally met some resistance at -250. There’s overwhelming sentiment in the market that the Cardinals will trade the No. 3 pick — and if they do they will likely be sending it to a team planning to take a quarterback.

Christian Gonzalez: Under 6.5

  • Line: +180
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Mar. 30
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: When this line was posted yesterday, it briefly was +120 to the over, and I thought about betting it because I think 6.5 is pretty much the perfect number. But I decided to wait in case it moved even more. The line moved — but massively in the other direction. I get why the over got steamed: We could see four quarterbacks go at the top of the draft, and Will Anderson feels like a mortal lock to be the first non-quarterback selected. But even if that happens Gonzalez could be a justifiable pick for the Lions at No. 6.

Zay Flowers: Over 24.5

  • Line: +190
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Mar. 30
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: In looking at my consensus of sharp mocks, the average is 23.8, and the median and mode are 25. In other words, 24.5 is a good line. I’ll take the value on the over.

Round 1 Running Backs: Under 1.5

  • Line: -280
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Mar. 30
  • Units: 1.4
  • Notes: RB Jahmyr Gibbs has a slight chance of sneaking into Round 1, but in 84% of the sharp mocks I’ve surveyed I’ve seen fewer than 1.5 running backs. Round 1 belongs to Bijan Robinson, and that’s it.

Round 1 Wide Receivers: Under 4.5

  • Line: -250
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Mar. 30
  • Units: 1.25
  • Notes: The under hits in 84% of my sharp mock consensus. Increasingly, I’m skeptical that WR Jalin Hyatt goes on Day 1. At 176 pounds, he needed to have a 40-yard dash in the mid-4.3s to prove himself worthy of elite draft capital. With a time of 4.40 seconds, he looks more like Paul Richardson (Round 2) than Will Fuller (Round 1).

Broderick Jones: Under 13.5

  • Line: -125, +140
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings, DraftKings
  • Date: Mar. 31, Apr. 22
  • Units: 1.25, 1
  • Notes: In my most recent mock I have Jones at No. 13, so this line isn’t terrible, but he goes under 13.5 in 76% of sharp mocks. Note: I added to this position on Apr. 22 at plus money.

Round 1 Quarterbacks: Under 4.5

  • Line: -360, -160
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings, Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 1, Apr. 11
  • Units: 1.8, 0.8
  • Notes: This number was -1000 a couple of days ago, but QB Hendon Hooker is starting to get some hype as a potential fifth passer who could go on Day 1. I’m skeptical. I think this line is an overreaction to Daniel Jeremiah recently mocking Hooker in Round 1 — but quarterbacks are regularly mocked too high. In only three mocks I respect have I seen more than 4.5 quarterbacks. I think the real odds of under 4.5 quarterbacks in Round 1 are at least 75% and probably more like 85%. Note: I bet this first on Apr. 1 and then added to the position on Apr. 11.

Round 1 Offensive Linemen: Over 5.5

  • Line: -143
  • Sportsbook: BetRivers
  • Date: Apr. 1
  • Units: 1.43
  • Notes: This number is -180 at DraftKings, so I’m getting some good line-shopping value, and I think the real line should be -175 based on what I see in sharp mocks. OTs Paris Johnson, Peter Skoronski, Broderick Jones and Darnell Wright are all highly likely to go in Round 1, and there’s a good chance that two of OTs Dawand Jones and Anton Harrison and G O’Cyrus Torrence are in the top 31.

Round 1 SEC Players: Under 11.5

  • Line: -155
  • Sportsbook: BetRivers
  • Date: Apr. 1
  • Units: 1.55
  • Notes: SEC players tend to be overmocked, and I see the under hitting in 84% of my consensus sharp mock.

Christian Gonzalez: No. 1 Cornerback

  • Line: -170
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 1
  • Units: 1.7
  • Notes: I know that Daniel Jeremiah prefers CB Devon Witherspoon — but Gonzalez is the No. 1 corner in 92% of my sharp mocks. Sure, there’s probably some echo chamber in that number … but in 40% of mocks Witherspoon isn’t even the No. 2 corner selected. I think Gonzalez should be a much bigger favorite than the odds indicate.

C.J. Stroud: No. 1 Overall

  • Line: -275
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet
  • Date: Apr. 1
  • Units: 1.375
  • Notes: Obviously I wish I’d bet on Stroud shortly after the combine when he was still available at plus money, but -275 is the best number available now in the market, and he’s the No. 1 pick in 84% of sharp mocks. I would not be surprised to see this number at -500 or even -1000 within a few weeks.

Anthony Richardson: Under 4.5

  • Line: -135, +280
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings, DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 10, Apr. 22
  • Units: 1.35, 1
  • Notes: This line is 3.5 at bet365, and Richardson goes before No. 5 in 84% of my sharp consensus, and that doesn’t take into account the possibility that the Cardinals could trade the No. 3 pick to a team that wants to take a quarterback. Note: I added to this position at plus money on Apr. 22.

Will Levis: Over 7.5, No. 2 Overall

  • Line: +115, +3500
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings, BetRivers
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 1, 1
  • Notes: I’m taking a barbell approach to Levis. On the one hand, he goes over 7.5 in 52% of sharp mocks, so I see a little value in the over at plus money. I believe that most talent evaluators have him as a tier below Young, Stroud and Richardson, and I can easily imagine him falling down the board. At the same time, there’s growing sentiment that Young could go No. 1 and that the Texans don’t like Stroud but do like Levis. In support of this notion: Levis is +250 to the Texans at FanDuel. So if Levis doesn’t go over 7.5, I now think there’s a decent chance that he goes at No. 2. Side note: I’m fully prepared to lose two units on this position when the Raiders take him at No. 7. Ugh.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Under 12.5

  • Line: +150
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I see 12.5 as being exactly the right number, so I’ll take the value on the under at plus money.

Devon Witherspoon: Over 8.5

  • Line: +150
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The over hits in 60% of my sharp consensus, so 8.5 looks like a good line. I know that some evaluators love Witherspoon’s tenacity, but I’m skeptical that a 181-pound cornerback without elite speed will go in the top eight.

Joey Porter Jr.: Over 16.5

  • Line: -140
  • Sportsbook: bet365
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 1.4
  • Notes: There might be some echo chamber here and a desire for mockers to slot Porter at No. 17 to the Steelers — the team his father played for — but Porter goes over 16.5 in 80% of the sharp consensus.

First Pick for Commanders, Buccaneers, Chargers, Jaguars & Bengals: Safety

  • Line: +3000, +3000, +4000, +5000, +5000
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings, DraftKings, DraftKings, FanDuel, DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 10, Apr. 12
  • Units: 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25
  • Notes: This is essentially a portfolio bet that S Brian Branch will go to one of these five teams, as he’s the only safety to be mocked in Round 1 in months. In 56% of the sharp index, Branch is slotted to one of these five. Note: I placed bets on the first four teams on Apr. 10 and added the Bengals position on Apr. 12.

First Pick for Steelers: Defensive Back

  • Line: +150
  • Sportsbook: UniBet
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: The Steelers go with a cornerback in 64% of sharp mocks.

First Pick for Bengals: Tight End

  • Line: +150
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: The Steelers go with a tight end in 52% of my sharp index. No. 28 is right in the wheelhouse for Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid and maybe even Darnell Washington.

First Pick for Titans: Wide Receiver

  • Line: +1500
  • Sportsbook: UniBet
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: The Titans go with a wide receiver in 28% of sharp mocks. No. 11 is a decent candidate to be the first pick used on a pass catcher, and this is right in the range for Jaxon Smigh-Njigba.

First Pick for Giants: Offensive Lineman

  • Line: +900
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: The Giants are strong at tackle with Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal, but this could be a prime spot for them to take the top interior offensive lineman in the class, whether that’s ultimately G O’Cyrus Torrence or C John Michael Schmitz. The Giants go with an offensive lineman in 20% of sharp mocks.

First Pick for Packers: Defensive Lineman

  • Line: +350
  • Sportsbook: UniBet
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: The Packers could use more bodies at edge: Rashan Gary is recovering from a season-ending knee injury, Preston Smith turns 31 years old in 2023 and Kingsley Enagbare will be just a sophomore fifth-rounder next season. They go with a defensive lineman in 32% of the sharp index.

First Pick for Falcons: Defensive Lineman

  • Line: +125
  • Sportsbook: UniBet
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: If we see four quarterbacks and one of CBs Christian Gonzalez and Devon Witherspoon go in the top seven, then that means the Falcons will have a shot at one of EDGEs Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson and DT Jalen Carter. It’s hard to imagine the Falcons passing on one of those three players. The Falcons draft a defensive lineman in 60% of sharp mocks.

Will Anderson: Top 5

  • Line: -1000
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I’m not looking to get rich or invest a lot with this bet, but this number should be close to the -10000 that we see with Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. Even if four quarterbacks were to go Nos. 1-4, Anderson would still be the prohibitive frontrunner to go No. 5. I’m yet to see him outside the top five in any mock.

Tyree Wilson: Top 5

  • Line: +700
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Wilson goes in the top five of 32% of my sharp index, so +700 is way too high with its 12.5% implied probability.

Quentin Johnston: To Ravens

  • Line: +2000
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This number is +700 at DraftKings, and Johnston goes to the Ravens in 24% of my sharp index. Even with the signing of WR Odell Beckham Jr., the Ravens could use another pass catcher.

C.J. Stroud: No. 1 Overall

  • Line: +225
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 12
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: When the Panthers traded up for the No. 1 pick, sharp bettors quickly backed Stroud and made him a favorite in the market. And then word got out that the Panthers might try to convince (or trick) the Texans — who have been heavily linked to Bryce Young for months — to trade up one spot to No. 1 in order to get him. Everything we’ve seen since then has been consistent with that idea. Until we get national reporters saying that they have sources in the Panthers organization saying that Young is the pick — or until a supermajority of sharp mocks pivot to Young at No. 1 — I’m sticking with Stroud.

Round 1 Wide Receivers: Over 3.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 14
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: I already have a position on under 4.5, so I’m going for the middle of four. Over 3.5 hits in 76% of my sharp index. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnson, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison are all strong candidates for Round 1, and even Jalin Hyatt has a chance to go on Day 1.

Round 1 Offensive Players: Over 15.5

  • Line: -105
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 17
  • Units: 1.05
  • Notes: This is the worst line I’ve seen to date in the 2023 draft market. The over hits in 96% of sharp mocks.

Round 1 Defensive Players: Under 15.5

  • Line: -115
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 17
  • Units: 1.15
  • Notes: This is the second-worst line I’ve seen in the market and is obviously correlated with the previous bet. This is basically another way to get more money down on the same position. The under hits in 96% of sharp mocks.

Paris Johnson: Top 10

  • Line: +105
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 17
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Johnson has a median of 9 and goes under 10.5 in 60% of my sharp index.

Bryce Young: No. 1 Overall

  • Line: -400
  • Sportsbook: PointsBet, bet365
  • Date: Apr. 17
  • Units: 1, 1
  • Notes: This market is moving based on the Tom Pelissero tweet. Young is already -1050 to go No. 1 at FanDuel. I plan to package the PointsBet position with my next one in a portfolio approach. Additional Note: I’m placing the bet365 bet to get more exposure to Young at an advantageous price.

Bryce Young: No. 2 Overall

  • Line: +900
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 17
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: If Young goes No. 1, then I’ll get 0.25 units, which will cover my bet here. If he doesn’t go No. 1, I think he’s almost certain to go No. 2 to the Texans.

Quentin Johnston: Under 26.5

  • Line: +135, +150
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings, Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1, 1
  • Notes: I think 26.5 is the correct number. Pick Nos. 21-25 are a wide receiver power alley, but he could also fall out of Round 1 because of his catching technique and limited route tree. Either side at more than +120 would offer value.

Will Levis & Tyree Wilson: No. 2 Overall

  • Line: +300, +325
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel, BetMGM
  • Date: Apr. 10
  • Units: 0.5, 0.5
  • Notes: I’m adding to my 35-1 longshot bet on Levis at No. 2 and also hedging it slightly with a position on Wilson, who was slotted to the Texans at No. 2 in Lance Zierlein’s most recent mock. Based on what Zierlein has done in his mocks and said on Twitter, here’s what I think. 1) Zierlein knows the Texans need to take a quarterback in Round 1, which is why he has them trading up from No. 12 to No. 7 for Levis. 2) He knows they like Levis. 3) He knows they probably like EDGEs Tyree Wilson and Will Anderson as much as and maybe more than QB C.J. Stroud, which suggests that they’re relatively down on Stroud — because if they liked Stroud then we’d likely not hear anything out of Houston about how the Texans are considering an edge rusher at No. 2. 4) He thinks they probably prefer Wilson to Anderson. My interpretation of all of that: Levis and Wilson are the two guys most in play for the Texans at No. 2.

Tyree Wilson & Will Anderson: No. 3 Overall

  • Line: +500, +400
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet, FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 0.5, 0.5
  • Notes: The Cardinals could trade out of No. 3 to a team desirous to trade up for a quarterback, but if they can’t they’re highly likely to take an edge defender, either Wilson or Anderson.

Anthony Richardson: No. 4 Overall

  • Line: +425
  • Sportsbook: BetRivers
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: The Colts need a quarterback, but I doubt they’ll trade up to No. 3 to take one. Richardson goes to the Colts at No. 4 in 44% of sharp mocks.

Jalen Carter: Nos. 5 & 10 Overall & to Seahawks & Eagles

  • Line: +800, +700,+1000, +500
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel, DraftKings, FanDuel, DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25
  • Notes: I’m investing one unit total in the idea that Carter goes to the Seahawks (at No. 5) or the Eagles (at No. 10). Those are the teams that have been most linked to Carter through national reports, and he goes Nos. 5 & 10 in 68% of sharp mocks.

Deonte Banks: Over 20.5

  • Line: +139
  • Sportsbook: bet365
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Banks goes over 20.5 in 76% of my sharp index. No. 17 feels like his ceiling, but Nos. 22-24 are a more realistic range.

Round 1 Defensive Backs: Under 5.5

  • Line: +140
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I think 5.5 defensive backs is exactly the right number. The top four corners are very likely to go on Day 1, and S Brian Branch probably should, but CBs Emmanuel Forbes, Kelee Ringo and Cam Smith are all less than 50%, and Branch is a low-key risk to slip out of Round 1 because safety is a very scheme-specific position for teams and his athleticism underwhelmed in his pre-draft workout.

Round 1 Offensive Linemen: Under 5.5

  • Line: +375
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I bet under 5.5 Round 1 offensive linemen at -143 at BetRivers on Apr. 1 (posted above), and I’m buying the other side now that the odds have shifted so aggressively. The closer we get to the draft, the fewer mocks in which G O’Cyrus Torrence appears. I still think the over is likely, but +375 odds on the under is something I can’t ignore.

Dawand Jones: Round 1

  • Line: +350
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This bet is a little bit of a hedge or arbitrage on my previous bet of under 5.5 offensive linemen in Round 1. If the over hits on that bet, there’s a decent chance it’s because Jones goes in Round 1. He’s in the top 31 picks in 28% of sharp mocks, so I think his posted odds should be around +250.

Round 1 SEC Players: Over 11.5

  • Line: +195
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I bet under 5.5 Round 1 SEC players at -155 at BetRivers on Apr. 1 (posted above), and I’m buying the other side now that the odds have shifted so aggressively. I now think this should be priced as if it’s 40/60.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: To Titans, Patriots, Packers, Seahawks & Chargers

  • Line: +1400, +500, +800, +2000, +3500
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel, FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftKings, DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2
  • Notes: I was tempted to include JSN to the Texans at +600 at DraftKings in this bet, but Lance Zierlein has spoken convincingly about how the Texans are unlikely to invest in a pass catcher in Round 1 given that they’ve added WRs Robert Woods and Noah Brown and TE Dalton Schultz in free agency, and second-round WR John Metchie (leukemia) is ready to return to action after missing his rookie season last year. Picks Nos. 11-21 is the likely range in which Smith-Njigba will come off the board, and in that range these are the teams likely to take him.

Michael Mayer: To Packers, Lions, Chargers, Cowboys & Bengals

  • Line: +500, +700, +650, +550, +800
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftKings, DraftKings, FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2
  • Notes: Picks Nos. 15-28 are the wheelhouse for where Mayer is likely to go, and I’m willing to bet that he goes to one of these five teams.

Bryan Bresee: Under 28.5

  • Line: +150
  • Sportsbook: bet365
  • Date: Apr. 22
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Bresee goes under 28.5 in 48% of sharp mocks, so this one is a coinflip. I think Nos. 29-30 are realistic options for him, but he could easily go earlier to the Lions at No. 18, Seahawks at No. 20 and Chargers at No. 21.

First Pick for Eagles: Defense

  • Line: +155
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 23
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The Eagles could take an offensive lineman or maybe RB Bijan Robinson with the first pick in Round 1 (Robinson is more likely if they trade down), but both defensive tackle and edge rusher are priorities for the Eagles, who like to build depth along the defensive line. And there’s also a chance they could take a cornerback. The Eagles go with a defensive player in 76% of sharp mocks.

Michael Mayer: Under 21.5

  • Line: +150
  • Sportsbook: bet365
  • Date: Apr. 23
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Mayer’s over/under is 23.5 at Caesars juiced -120 to the under, but if we move down two spots we can gain 70 cents of value without (in my opinion) giving up much in return: Picks Nos. 22-23 belong to the Ravens and Vikings, both of whom are set at tight end, so Mayer’s real odds of going before 21.5 are roughly the same as the odds for going before 23.5, and I think those odds are about 50/50. In sharp mocks, Mayer’s mean is 21.4 and his median is 21. He often is mocked to the Cowboys at No. 26, but he could easily go off the board before then to the Packers, Lions and Chargers (Nos. 15, 18 & 21).

Bryce Young: No. 1 Overall

  • Line: -1000
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel, Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 26
  • Units: 1, 1
  • Notes: I’m putting two units total here on Young to go No. 1. He was -2000 earlier, but the market moved toward QB Will Levis because of a random Reddit post. Ridiculous.

Hendon Hooker: To Eagles, 49ers, Bills & Chiefs

  • Line: +30000
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25
  • Notes: I have Hooker at No. 50 on my big board. He’s No. 46 on Daniel Jeremiah’s big board. I don’t believe he’s going on Day 1. He feels like a guy that a team will grab in Round 2 — and the odds for any guy after Round 1 to go to any team in particular shouldn’t be all that far away from 3.125% (one divided by 32). At that point in the draft, any guy can go to almost any team. Now, FanDuel amazingly has Hooker with +30000 odds (yes, 300-1) to go to the following teams: Eagles, Bengals, 49ers, Chargers, Jaguars, Browns, Panthers, Bills and Chiefs. What’s the one team on that list with a history of drafting quarterbacks with top-100 picks even though it already had established starters? The Eagles. They did it with Kevin Kolb (No. 36, 2007), Nick Foles (No. 88, 2012), Matt Barkley (No. 98, 2013) and Jalen Hurts (No. 53, 2020). If Hooker falls in the draft — and he easily could, because he’s an injured 25-year-old passer who played in a pseudo-gimmick offense — the Eagles will be a legitimate candidate to take him as long as he represents value on their board. At +30000, Hooker has a 0.33% implied probability to go to the Eagles, and I think the true probability is higher than 1% and maybe as high as 3%. As for the 49ers, Bills and Chiefs — I can imagine HCs Kyle Shanahan, Sean McDermott and Andy Reid feeling secure enough in their jobs to take and develop a quarterback who falls to them and presents value based on their boards.

C.J. Stroud, Will Levis or Anthony Richardson: No. 3 Overall

  • Line: +275, +1200, +1700
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet, bet365, FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.25, 0.25, 0.25
  • Notes: If a team trades up to No. 3, it almost certainly will be for a passer. If it’s Stroud, I make a little. If Levis or Richardson, I’ll make a decent amount. If there’s no trade, I’ll lose less than a unit.

Devon Witherspoon: No. 7 Overall

  • Line: +500
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: If a team trades up to No. 3 for a quarterback, that could start a chain reaction whereby Witherspoon will likely fall to No. 7. And he could fall there anyway if the Cardinals stay at No. 3 and decide to take OT Paris Johnson, because then DT Jalen Carter and EDGE Tyree Wilson would likely go Nos. 5-6 in some order.

Paris Johnson: No. 9 Overall

  • Line: +400
  • Sportsbook: BetRivers
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: I’m skeptical that Johnson will go No. 3 to the Cardinals, and if he doesn’t then there’s a decent chance he’ll fall to No. 9, where he in 40% of recent sharp mocks.

Nolan Smith: No. 10 Overall

  • Line: +500
  • Sportsbook: bet365
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.25
  • Notes: The Eagles could do almost anything in Round 1 — trade up, trade down — but they take Smith at No. 10 in 52% of recent sharp mocks

Broderick Jones: Over 15.5, Under 14.5

  • Line: +170, +210
  • Sportsbook: Caesars, DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.5, 0.5
  • Notes: I have other Jones bets, but these two function regardless of those. Jones has been linked to the Jets at No. 15 — but the market is priced as if it’s a certainty he goes there. So this is essentially a bet that he doesn’t.

Dalton Kincaid: Over 24.5

  • Line: +210
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Based on recent sharp mocks, I think this is a 40/60 bet

Hendon Hooker: Over 31.5

  • Line: +150
  • Sportsbook: bet365
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: Hooker goes in Round 1 in less than 50% of sharp mock drafts. Quarterbacks simply tend to have inflated draft hype.

Round 1 Quarterbacks: Under 4.5

  • Line: +130
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.65
  • Notes: I’ve been fading the quarterback market for the past month, and this is basically another version of Hooker over 31.5, because he’s the passer on whom the positional over/under hinges.

Nolan Smith: Over 11.5, Under 10.5

  • Line: +130, +170
  • Sportsbook: Caesars, DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.5, 0.5
  • Notes: This is a bet that Smith doesn’t land on No. 11 … and I’ve seen him at that spot in zero mocks.

Quentin Johnston: Over 26.5

  • Line: +200
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This number is simply wrong. Johnston could fall out of Round 1. He goes over 26.5 in 60% of recent sharp mocks.

Lukas Van Ness: Under 13.5

  • Line: +190
  • Sportsbook: BetRivers
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This line isn’t quite 50/50, but it’s close: Van Ness could go as early as No. 8 to the Falcons, and he’s also in play to the Eagles at No. 10 and the Packers at No. 13.

Michael Mayer: Over 23.5

  • Line: +150
  • Sportsbook: Caesars
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I already have a bet on Mayer under 21.5 at +150 at bet365. This pairs with that to be essentially a bet that he doesn’t go Nos. 22-23. But this bet also stands on its own: Mayer goes over 23.5 in 64% of recent sharp mocks.

Round 1 Offensive Linemen: Under 5.5, Under 6.5

  • Line: +350, -250
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings, FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.5, 1.25
  • Notes: I’m adding to previous positions that I already have on under 5.5 offensive linemen. In the recent sharp mocks, 5.5 is almost exactly a 50/50 proposition, and I don’t have one sharp mock in the index that has more than six offensive linemen.

Round 1 Tight Ends: Under 2.5

  • Line: -180
  • Sportsbook: bet365
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.9
  • Notes: I’ve seen more than 2.5 tight ends in just 12% of recent sharp mocks.

Round 1 ACC Players: Under 3.5

  • Line: +122
  • Sportsbook: BetRivers
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The under hits in 68% of recent sharp mocks. The mean, median and mode in the index is exactly 3.0.

Round 1 Big Ten Players: Under 8.5

  • Line: +240
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I think this is a 50/50 prop egregiously mispriced.

Devon Witherspoon: No. 1 Cornerback

  • Line: -213
  • Sportsbook: FOXBet
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1.065
  • Notes: Full capitulation on Witherspoon to No. 1 corner. I hate laying this juice after previously investing in Christian Gonzalez, but Witherspoon is the No. 1 corner in 96% of recent sharp mocks, and at least I’m buying at a discount relative to the market: Witherspoon No. 1 CB is -400 at Caesars.

First Pick for Chargers: Tight End

  • Line: +350
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: The Chargers take a tight end in 44% of recent sharp mocks.

C.J. Stroud: No. 2 Overall

  • Line: +3400
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: Apr. 27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: It’s happening. Stroud’s going No. 2.

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