The first Saturday in May is just days away, and with it the 152nd Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses will start at approximately 6:57 pm ET on Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Let’s get into the Derby odds, trends, and best bets.
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2026 Kentucky Derby Trends & Best Bets
Winning Trends by Post Position Since 1930
1 – Renegade (4-1) – (Post 1 winners – 8, Most Recent – Ferdinand, 1986)
2 – Albus (30-1) – (Post 2 winners – 7, Most Recent – Affirmed, 1978)
3 – Intrepido (50-1) – (Post 3 winners – 6, Most Recent – Mystik Dan, 2024)
4 – Litmus Test (30-1) – (Post 4 winners – 5, Most Recent – Super Saver, 2010)
5 – Right to Party (30-1) – (Post 5 winners – 10, Most Recent – Always Dreaming, 2017)
6 – Commandment (6-1) – (Post 6 winners – 2, Most Recent – Sea Hero, 1993)
7 – Danon Bourbon (20-1) – (Post 7 winners – 8, Most Recent – Mandaloun, 2021)
8 – So Happy (15-1) – (Post 8 winners – 9, Most Recent – Mage, 2023)
9 -The Puma (10-1) – (Post 9 winners – 4, Most Recent – Riva Ridge, 1972)
10 – Wonder Dean (30-1) – (Post 10 winners – 9, Most Recent – Giacomo, 2005)
11 – Incredibolt (20-1) – (Post 11 winners – 2, Most Recent – Winning Colors, 1988)
12 – Chief Wallabee (8-1) – (Post 12 winners – 3, Most Recent – Canonero II, 1971)
13 – Silent Tactic (20-1) – (Post 13 winners – 4, Most Recent – Nyquist, 2016)
14 – Potente (20-1) – (Post 14 winners – 2, Most Recent – Carry Back, 1961)
15 – Emerging Market (15-1) – (Post 15 winners – 6, Most Recent – Authentic, 2020)
16 – Pavlovian (30-1) – (Post 16 winners – 4, Most Recent – Animal Kingdom, 2011)
17 – Six Speed (50-1) – (Post 17 winners – 0)
18 – Further Ado (6-1) – (Post 18 winners – 3, Most Recent – Sovereignty, 2025)
19 – Golden Tempo (30-1) – (Post 19 winners – 1, Most Recent – I’ll Have Another, 2012)
20 – Fulleffort (20-1) – (Post 20 winners – 2, Most Recent – Rich Strike, 2022)
21 – Great White (50-1) – (Post 21 winner – 0)
Trend-Based Bad Bets
There are no bad horses, only bad bets, so we will use the phrase “Trend-Based Bad Bets” for the following entrants. These are horses that statistically and historically face factors that are poor bets to win on Derby Day. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I am a process-driven bettor, and these bets are the antithesis of process-driven.
Nippon ‘Em in the Bud – While I do believe it is only a matter of time before a Japanese-/raced horse wins the Derby, this is not going to be the year. Danon Bourbon won one a weak UAE Derbys and finished fourth behind Luxor Cafe in their most recent head-to-head, and as such, is not a threat to buck these dual negative trends of being Japanese Road to the Derby. In fact, since 1977, horses with experience racing outside of the U.S. and Canada have gone 0-for-50 in the Kentucky Derby. Additionally, horses who have raced exclusively outside of the U.S. and Canada have gone 0-for-18 since 1992. Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean, and Six Speed all fit this trend and can be tossed.
No Dos? No Dice!
Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year old: Apollo (1882), Justify (2018), and Mage (2023). To beat to formerly named “Curse of Apollo” owners used to race even unready two-year-olds just to get them a juvenile race under their belt. This year’s field has a whopping four horses who went unarmed last year and all but knocks out Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Potente, and The Puma.
Winning Trends
Who’s Your Daddy?
Pedigree matters, especially in recent years, as 14 of the previous 17 Kentucky Derby champions have been sired by stallions that won at least one Grade 1 race of 1 1/16 miles or farther. In past years, this has narrowed the entrants down more, but this year’s field, like last year’s comes from very successful sires with around 3/4 of the field fitting this criterion, so we’re going to have to look elsewhere, as this once again decreases the relevance of this historically accurate metric. This criterion fits: Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade, Fulleffort, The Puma, Emerging Market, Potente, Pavlovian, Right to Party, Incredibolt, Golden Tempo, Danon Bourbon, Chief Wallabee, Litmus Test
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
Furthermore, historically, of the previous 70 Kentucky Derby champions, only two have won after extended layoffs of six weeks or more. Those two horses were Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Authentic in 2020. In fact, each of the last 13 winners’ final preps was within 7 weeks of the Derby. The lone 7-week layoff belongs to Authentic, whose 2020 layoff has the asterisk of being impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, where every horse’s prep schedule was askew thanks to the rescheduled late summer race. The traditional Kentucky Derby prep schedule was completely thrown off in 2020, so that makes one out of the last 68 “traditional” champs coming off layoffs of more than five weeks. This knocks out Fulleffort, Pavlovian, Emerging Market, Incredibolt, Golden Tempo
Galloping Ghosts
If aesthetics are your thing, this year’s Derby features (a record tying) three roans: Pavlovian, Fulleffort, and Great White. Only eight roans have won the Derby: Determine (1954), Decidedly (1962), Spectacular Bid (1979), Gato Del Sol (1982), Winning Colors (1988), Silver Charm (1997), Giacomo (2005), and Essential Quality (2021). Half of those have come in the past 37 races, so while rare, there have been as many roan winners in the past 37 runnings (.108) as in the previous 114 (.035).
Winner, Winner Plus JUST a Little Extra
Since 1980, 30-of-42 horses have won their final prep race before the Derby. If you include the ultimately disqualified Maximum Security in 2019, 11 of the last 15 horses to cross the finish line first at the Kentucky Derby have entered the race coming off a victory in their final prep race. The following horses (of those remaining) fit this final criterion.
Remaining Contenders’ Pedigrees
Albus (Yaupon – Adream, by Bernardini)
Commandment (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
Fulleffort (Liam’s Map – Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again)
Further Ado (Gun Runner – Sky Dreamer by Sky Mesa)
Renegade (Into Mischief – Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
So Happy (Runhappy – So Cunning, by Blame)
These six horses are the best bets, based of historical data to either win or hit the board on Saturday. We can apply more recent trends to these five contenders and whittle them down even further.
- None of the last 14 winners and just one of the last 43 won the Wood Memorial in their final prep race. This all but knocks out Albus, despite his victory at Aqueduct last time out.
- Eight of the last 14 champs had at least three previous victories. Three of the remaining five horses fit this: Fulleffort, Further Ado, So Happy
- Ten of the last 15 winners had never raced at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby. Three of the remaining five fit this trend: Fulleffort, So Happy, Renegade
- Twelve of the last 14 to hit the winner’s circle drew posts either between 5-8 or 13-19, with nine of the last 15 winners starting 13 or wider. This stat is even more impressive when you factor in that Post 17 has never produced a winner in 45 tries, and Post 15 hasn’t won since Carry Back in 1961, a full 65 years ago.
Best Boxed Superfecta: Commandment – Renegade – Further Ado – So Happy – Chief Wallabee (6-1-18-8-12)
2026 Kentucky Derby Horse Previews, Picks & Predictions
Check out our previews for every horse competing in the 2026 Kentucky Derby and our expert analysis on the best bets for this year's Run for the Roses.
Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Odds
| Post | Horse | Trainer Name | Jockey Name | Odds |
| 1 | Renegade | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr. | +400 |
| 2 | Albus | Riley Mott | Manuel Franco | +4000 |
| 3 | Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | Hector Barrios | +5000 |
| 4 | Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | +5000 |
| 5 | Right to Party | Kenneth McPeek | Chris Elliott | +5000 |
| 6 | Commandment | Brad Cox | Luis Saez | +500 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | Manabu Ikezoe | Atsuya Nishimura | +1500 |
| 8 | So Happy | Mark Glatt | Mike Smith | +1200 |
| 9 | The Puma | Gustavo Delgado | Javier Castellano | +800 |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | Daisuke Takayanagi | Ryusei Sakai | +4000 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | Riley Mott | Jaime Torres | +2500 |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | William I. Mott | Junior Alvarado | +800 |
| 14 | Potente | Bob Baffert | Juan Hernandez | +2000 |
| 15 | Emerging Market | Chad C. Brown | Flavien Prat | +1500 |
| 16 | Pavlovian | Doug O’Neill | Edwin Maldonado | +3500 |
| 17 | Six Speed | Bhupat Seemar | TBD | +5000 |
| 18 | Further Ado | Brad Cox | John Velazquez | +500 |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | Cherie DeVaux | Jose Ortiz | +3000 |
| 20 | Fulleffort | Brad Cox | Tyler Gaffalione | +2500 |
| ALT* | Great White | John Ennis | Alex Achard | +5000 |
More Kentucky Derby Betting Advice
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