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Andrew Erickson’s 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card

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The NFL Draft is fun, and this year I’ll finally be getting in on ALL the action with mobile sports betting legalized in my area of residence. Below is my regularly-updated sheet of prop bets for the 2023 NFL Draft.

Here are my mock drafts thus far, along with my other relevant articles related to this year’s Draft:

Check out Matthew Freedman’s 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card >>

Best 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bets

Here are my favorite 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bets.

Deonte Banks To Be Selected Under 20.5

There’s just no way that the Commanders (16) and Steelers (17) both pass on Deonte Banks. The Lions (18) could also draft a cornerback if they do not do so at pick No.6, and the Buccaneers are overly obsessed with drafting players that boast elite speed.

Zay Flowers To Be First WR Selected

There was once a time — exactly one month ago — when I was all over buying the dip on Quentin Johnston to be the No. 1 WR selected in the draft at plus money. But with his recent free fall, I am shifting gears toward the favorite to be No. 2 WR selected in Zay Flowers. I love Flowers’ draft position prop at 22.5 with plus-money toward the under (+140). But for an even bigger payout, I love betting him to be the first WR selected. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s draft position prop is heavily leaning toward the over at 12.5. And if he isn’t picked by the Houston Texans 12th overall, I’d say it becomes a 50/50 battle between him and Flowers to be drafted first between teams such as the Patriots, Packers, Lions, Seahawks, Chargers, Ravens and Vikings.

Flowers odds to be the No. 1 WR selected are nearly identical to what they were nearly a month ago, despite all the steam he has gotten.

Jalen Carter To Be Selected Under 6.5

Plus money for the best player in the draft to go inside the top 6. Cannot see the Detroit Lions (pick at No. 6) passing on him after relatively positive reports coming in lieu of his off-the-field issues.

Christian Gonzalez To Be 3rd Overall Draft Pick

About 1 month ago, I wrote up a Christian Gonzalez prop at +10000 to be drafted third overall (scroll below). The odds are currently listed a +3500 as we creep closer to the NFL Draft with the Arizona Cardinals still in possession of the pick. Based on the odds of players favored being selected third overall (C.J. Stroud), the expectation is that this pick is traded. But what if a trade never happens? That would open up the defensive player market for Arizona, and Gonzalez gives bettors the biggest bang for their buck versus the top edge rushers in the draft class.

More than 2.5 TEs Drafted in Round 1

It’s very important that you find the best line regarding the tight end prop market. It varies across books, but the plus-odds toward three tight ends being selected is my play. DraftKings Sportsbook has over 2 tight ends heavily favored (-450). We know that Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer are locks, with Darnell Washington the most likely candidate to be the third tight end selected. The Georgia tight end ranks 30th overall in the consensus per NFLmockdraftdatabase.com and recently appeared in Peter Schrager’s latest mock draft to the Bengals at No. 28 overall. He is currently the 22nd-ranked player on Daniel Jeremiah’s overall top-50 ranked prospects. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein recently appeared on the Establish The Run podcast and said one of his most confident predictions in this draft would be that at least three tight ends would be drafted.

Washington also possesses the archetype that teams will salivate over. The 6-foot-7 and 264-pound pterodactyl posted a 4.64 40-time and jumped 122 inches in the broad jump (88th percentile) at the NFL Combine. But his most impressive feat by far was his 4.08 20-yard shuttle, which ranks in the 97th percentile.

Under 3.5 WRs Drafted in Round 1

This isn’t earth-shattering news, but this WR class is extremely underwhelming. Only three WRs were invited to the NFL Draft (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison) suggesting there’s a lot of uncertainty about fourth wideout slated to hear their name called next Thursday night. Considering there are also only 31 picks due to the Miami Dolphins forfeiting their first-rounder, playing the under in a lackluster WR class is the move to make. I don’t feel confident about Quentin Johnston going inside Round 1 anymore despite him once being the favorite to be the first WR drafted very early in the draft process.

More than 1.5 RBS Drafted in Round 1

Running back is one of the positions that differ most from pre-draft mocks. Last year the following differentials for running backs were Breece Hall (0), Kenneth Walker (+17), James Cook (+36), Rachaad White (+49), Brian Robinson (+15), Dameon Pierce (+21), Zamir White (+9) and Isaiah Spiller (-42). Of the eight highest pre-drafted 2022 rookie running backs, seven went were drafted much earlier than mocks projected. Ergo, I wouldn’t rule out Jahmyr Gibbs being selected in Round 1 as the second RB off the board. Bijan Robinson’s “generational” status has overshadowed how great Gibbs is in his own right, especially as a receiver.

And a win-now team selecting a running back at the end of the first round would hardly be abnormal, as this is when the majority of top-end rookie RBs are selected. The teams with the shortest odds to draft Gibbs include Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas, and Kansas City (all teams selecting 26th or higher in Round 1).

Also available on DraftKings Sportsbook at +300.

Jonathan Mingo To Be Second WR Selected

WR Jonathan Mingo has been rocketing up draft boards as of late, with his latest surge coming in the form of a first-round selection in NFL.com’s Peter Schrager’s latest mock draft. Mingo ended up as the fourth WR taken in the mock draft, so his odds of being selected second are still extremely long. If draft props open up for the 3rd/4th WR selected, I’d highly recommend betting Mingo in those markets. But for now, I love the longshot at 100-to-1 odds for the Ole Miss WR to be the second WR drafted. His size-speed profile at 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds with 4.46 wheels is something you can’t coach. And teams always always always overvalue speed when drafting WR prospects. It’s an eerily similar profile to that of former Ole Miss Rebels wide receiver DK Metcalf, who teams still can’t believe they passed on in Round 1 during the 2019 NFL Draft.

Hendon Hooker To Be Selected by the Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens have been open to the idea of selecting a QB in this upcoming draft amid the stalling negotiations to sign Lamar Jackson long-term. Eric DeCosta has openly said that the there are ‘more than four guys’ who can be ‘significant’ NFL quarterbacks. Considering Hendon Hooker is almost strictly viewed as the QB5 in this class, I think it’s a positive nod in his direction that the Ravens would entertain the idea of selecting him with decent draft capital. Furthermore, Hooker likely checks off the requisite boxes by an analytical-driven franchise, based on the video game passing numbers he was able to put up at Tennessee in Josh Heupel’s offense.

One of Hooker’s major concerns — aside from age and ACL injury — is whether he will be able to replicate that college production at the pro level, with Heupel’s offense differing much from the professional game. But who better to make a smooth transition for Hooker than the Ravens new offensive coordinator Todd Munken, who heralds from the Air Raid offense — likely the best NFL scheme for Hooker. Munken’s offensive philosophy stems from the great late Mike Leach, who was extremely high on Hooker. Leach went on as far as to say that Hooker was the best quarterback in the SEC for 2022 season. Considering the Leach/Munken connection, it’s hard to think Munken wouldn’t be pounding the table for Hooker as a target for the Ravens. 

Tyree Wilson To Be First Defensive Player Selected

NFL teams fall in love with freaks. And Tyree Wilson fits the mold boasting insane height (6′ 6⅛”, 95th percentile) and arm length (35⅝”, 96 percentile). He also led the edge class in pressures per game this past year. So with the intangibles and production intact, Wilson is the best bet to overtake Will Anderson Jr. as the consensus No. 1 defender selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. The only reason he remains at plus money is that he has not yet tested due to an injury. And in a recent mock draft by NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein — who correctly projected both of the Texans’ first-round draft picks last season — had Wilson being selected second overall to Houston.

Simply put, the odds are only going to increase for Wilson as we inch closer to the NFL draft.

C.J. Stroud To Be 4th Overall Draft Pick

This is just simply following the betting market and taking advantage of the values that remain. We’ve seen a major shake-up, with Bryce Young overtaking C.J. Stroud as the favorite to be the No. 1 pick. It’s possible that it’s a smokescreen by the Panthers, but Young landing in Carolina is definitely a possibility. However, that scenario playing out — along with the Houston Texans reportedly not being sold on Stroud as their future QB — could result in the Ohio State quarterback tumbling down the draft board ever so slightly to the Colts that select at No. 4 overall. All that needs to happen is for Young to go No. 1 overall, Houston to take the top defensive player, and then Anthony Richardson to be the pick at No. 3 to a team the Arizona Cardinals eventually trade with.

That would leave Stroud available at No. 4. I just believe the 35-to-1 odds are too good to pass up a realistic situation come draft night based on how the market is heavily leaning toward Young being selected No. 1 overall. The value in that prop is long gone at this point, but taking advantage of a Stroud fall is still firmly in play.

Jake Moody To Be Selected by the New England Patriots

There’s nothing like kicker props to get your juice flowing on Day 3 of the NFL Draft. And there’s no better way than to bet Michigan’s Jake Moody to become New England’s next kicker at 30-to-1 odds. Nick Folk will be 38 in 2023 and is coming off a down season where he converted just 86.5% of his field goals — 16th-best in the league. Folk also finished as PFF’s 31st-graded quarterback and will hit free agency in 2024.

Bill Belichick has to address the kicker position, something he has done before in recent drafts. In 2020, the Patriots selected Justin Rohrwasser in the 5th round. Rohrwasser connected on 85.7% of his kicks in his final year at Marshall while showcasing a big leg. He hit 7-of-8 attempts from 40-plus yards en route to earning Conference USA’s Special Teams Player of the Year Award. The Patriots also signed former Michigan kicker Quinn Nordin (Moody’s predecessor at Michigan) in 2021 as an undrafted free agent. Moody’s career at Michigan was vastly superior to Nordon’s as the 2023 draft prospect connected on 82% of his kicks — 87% the last two seasons — with a 100% conversion rate on extra point attempts.

Considering Moody earned the 2023 Shrine Bowl MVP award with 4 field goals (two 51-yarders) with the Patriots coaching the West Team all week, there’s already a positive connection between Moody and New England. Per ESPN’s Mike Reiss, Belichick spent so much time in practices with West team prospects on the finer points of the kicking game that he looked like an assistant special teams coach.

Broderick Jones To Be 1st OL Selected

In my latest mock draft, I had the Chicago Bears selecting Georgia tackle Broderick Jones as the first offensive lineman in the draft. Currently, Chicago is the only team favored to draft an offensive lineman inside the top 10. And I fully expect Jones to be the pick for the Bears at 9 if he is available, based on the archetype of tackle prospect that new GM Ryan Poles may tend to draft toward. Chicago’s fifth-round draft selection last year, Braxton Jones, is best comparable to Georgia tackle Broderick Jones. Braxton Jones started all 17 games for the Bears at left tackle last season. He ran his 40-yard dash at 4.97 (93rd percentile) and 10-yard split at 1.74 (80th percentile).

Another close comparison to Broderick Jones is Ikem Ekwonu, whose highlight tape was filled with him mauling guys in the run game. He was also the first OL selected in last year’s draft.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, I also love the under on Jones’ position at 13.5 (+130). Odds are listed at +150 toward the under on WynnBet. On Caesars Sportsbook, his position is listed at 14.5 with plus-money toward the over (+110), and -140 toward the under.

Quentin Johnston To Be Drafted by the Arizona Cardinals

Quentin Johnston’s stock has fallen since the start of the pre-draft process, making it more uncertain what team selects him in the upcoming draft. But what we do know is that the Cardinals will be moving down the draft board in some capacity (even into Round 2 in some mocks), potentially putting them in a better position to select the TCU WR. They have been connected to the polarizing WR throughout the process (visiting the team on 4/11), and he fits the YAC-WR archetype that Cardinals’ new GM Monti Ossenfort will covet. His overall boom-or-bust profile also mimics similar WRs like N’Keal Harry and/or Treylon Burks, who Ossenfort oversaw his team’s draft in the 1st round. He also saw firsthand how impactful an elite yards-after-catch (YAC) receiver (A.J. Brown) can be for an entire passing offense, as can new head coach Jonathan Gannon.

Christian Gonzalez To Be 3rd Overall Draft Pick

Every year I construct an article titled “Tracking the Historical NFL Draft Picks of All 32 NFL Teams” as I attempt to create the most accurate mock in the industry. And something that drew my attention was the history of the new Arizona Cardinals general manager, Monti Ossenfort.

Ossenfort spent his last three seasons as the Titans’ director of player personnel from 2020-2022 after serving as a director of college football scouting with the New England Patriots from 2014-2019.

During Ossenfort’s tenure in Tennesse, the team spent high-end draft capital on OT Isaiah Wilson (29th overall), CB Kristian Fulton (61st overall), RB Darrynton Evans (93rd overall), CB Caleb Farley (22nd overall), RB OT Dillon Radunz (53rd overall), LB Monty Rice (100th overall), WR Treylon Burks (18th overall), CB Roger McCreary (35th overall), OT Nicholas Petit-Frere (69th overall) and QB Malik Willis (86th overall).

As you can see, he oversaw drafts involving many cornerbacks and offensive tackles at the top. He also drafted two players from Georgia with little success.

Considering Mossenfort’s track record of drafting cornerbacks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team pull the trigger on a cornerback at third overall (or attempt to trade back), especially when you consider his background with the Patriots organization, notorious for valuing coverage over pass rush. New head coach Jonathan Gannon also got his start coaching defensive backs from 2014-2020 before being hired as DC of the Eagles.

Oregon’s freakish athlete Christian Gonzalez is the favorite to be the first cornerback drafted and has been tied to Arizona throughout the draft process. Based on his testing and measurables, he strikes a lot of similarities to Jalen Ramsey, who was drafted fifth overall in 2016.

Current Cardinals quarterback David Blough is also Gonzalez’s brother-in-law.

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the odds that Gonzalez goes third overall (+3000) are lower than him being the first defensive player selected (+1500 FanDuel, +1200 DraftKings). And I’d note that these lines recently moved as the odds were equal at +3000 for Gonzalez to be third overall and be the first defensive player drafted.

I would probably lean toward the defensive player prop as opposed to third overall, as your bet has more “outs” in case of trades, even at the smaller payout. The “safest” bet might be to lock in the Cardinals drafting a cornerback with their first selection at +650 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Quentin Johnston To Be First WR Selected

40 times move draft odds. Case in point, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the favorite to be the first receiver off the board (-250) after running a 4.48 official time at Ohio State’s pro day on March 22. Hence, why the move now is to bet on Quentin Johnston at +550 on DraftKings Sportsbook to be the first WR selected before TCU’s pro day on March 30. If he runs extremely well, I’d imagine he will skyrocket back up the mock draft boards with teams salivating over his speed at 6-foot-3 and 208 pounds. I’m buying the dip after Johnston spent the majority of early mocks as the consensus No. 1 WR selected.

In my latest mock draft, I had the Texans selecting Johnston at No. 12 overall as the first WR off-the-board.

New Texans OC Bobby Slowik stems from a 49ers coaching tree that thrives on creating YAC opportunities for its offensive personnel. Johnston is a perfect fit in an offense that has virtually no YAC generators. No TE or WR currently rostered finished inside the top 84 in YAC per reception in 2022.

Now there’s a case to be made that JSN could be the YAC receiver they desire, as he can also make plenty of plays with the ball in his hands. However, Slowik stated in a recent press conference that “everything we want starts with are we fast, are we physical, are we tough,”

Smith-Njigba is quicker than fast, so there’s a possibility the Houston Texans – who desperately lack speed on offense – prefer Johnston should he blaze his 40-yard dash at his pro day. But keep in mind that the Texans aren’t the only team that could draft a WR, with the Bears, Titans, and Seahawks the favorites to draft one early.

I also like the prop on Zay Flowers being the first receiver off the board at slightly longer odds (+600 DraftKings Sportsbook). He’s gotten steamed up over the recent weeks, which has caused dips for players like Johnston and Jordan Addison.

Houston Texans To Draft RB Jahmyr Gibbs

The Houston Texans showed us last draft season the kind of players they want to target. Among their first six selections in the first four rounds, five came from the SEC, including two players from Alabama. The front office has done their homework on the Crimson Tide, pushing me toward Bryce Young as their future franchise QB with the second-overall pick.

But with college QB and pass-catchers reuniting in the NFL all the rage nowadays, how outlandish is it to think the Texans don’t pull the trigger on Jahmyr Gibbs (another Alabama product) to pair him with his former teammate? All I can say is that the odds are better than 50-1, which is how the sportsbooks list the prop. As previously stated, Houston is desperate for speed, and Gibbs has 4.36 wheels to burn.

Minnesota Vikings Will Draft QB Will Levis

At 6-foot-4, 229 pounds, Kentucky’s Will Levis offers an Andrew Luck/Dak Prescott-type build paired with mobility/rushing to extend drives. When a healthy Levis played in an NFL-style offense under former Rams offensive coordinator Liam Coen in 2021, the Kentucky product finished as PFF’s 10th-highest-graded QB in the Power Five. Levis also rushed for nearly 40 yards per game, which is close to the rushing marks set by Joe Burrow and Josh Allen during their respective college tenures.

The reason he makes sense landing in Minnesota is twofold. Kirk Cousins‘ guaranteed money will be gone after this season. And Levis’ experience and success in Coen’s offensive system would be a great fit in Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell‘s offense – considering both of their resumés tie back to the Los Angeles Rams/Sean McVay.

Tennessee Titans To Draft a CB As Their First Player

Jon Robinson was let go as the Titans’ GM in 2022 after serving in the role since the start of the 2016 season. The team replaced him with Ran Carthon, a former director of pro/player personnel with the 49ers (2017-2022) and Rams (2012-2016).

During his tenure with the 49ers, the team drafted a defensive player with their first selection in three of the last five drafts (when they had a round-one selection). Last season with no first-round pick, the 49ers took outside linebacker Drake Jackson 61st overall.

Most of the Titans’ starters are returning from their secondary, but it’s a unit that played horribly in 2022. The Titans ranked last in passing yards allowed per game (275). If they feel OK with their offensive line coming out of free agency with the signings of Andre Dillard and Daniel Brunskill, cornerback will be the position they address with high capital. They definitely will go after a perimeter CB after inking inside cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting to a one-year deal.

The highest cornerback drafted by the 49ers since 2017 was the 6-foot-3 and 198-pound Ahkello Witherspoon. Joey Porter Jr., at 6-foot-2½ and 193 pounds, will definitely be in strong consideration if available to Tennessee at 11th overall.

Porter Jr. comes with length and was a pass-breakup machine in 2022, posting College Football’s second-highest forced incompletion rate (41%). His frame and build – 96th-percentile height, 98th-percentile wingspan, and 98th-percentile arm length – fit the exact archetype that was heavily coveted during Carthon’s tenure in San Fran.

Dan Francisco’s 2021 third-round pick CB Ambry Thomas stood at 6 feet with 79th percentile arm length. Their 2022 sixth-round pick CB Tariq Castro-Fields (also from Penn State) was 6-foot-1.

Connecting a cornerback to the Titans seems to be lost in the betting markets, as the OL position remains the favorite at -225 odds, even after all the free-agency moves. Meanwhile, the Titans drafting a cornerback is sitting pretty at +2000 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Check out Kent Weyrauch’s 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card >>

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