Best 2020 NFL Draft Player Prop Bets
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Thursday night will feel like nirvana for sports bettors. Instead of being faced with table tennis and Taiwanese baseball for their betting choices, they’ll have a slew of NFL Draft prop bets to choose from.
Here at BettingPros, we have been following draft odds for more than a month now. Check out our archive for more than 50 articles on NFL Draft betting advice.
Check out all of our 2020 NFL Draft Prop Bets here >>
In this article, we focus on an array of NFL Draft player prop bets that are likely to happen but will not break the bank in terms of heavy odds. All odds are odds courtesy of FanDuel.
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First Running Back Drafted
The only other two running backs seemingly in contention to be the first taken at their position are Jonathan Taylor (+220) and J.K. Dobbins (+600). There’s a chance that bettors will have to wait until the second round to see if this bet cashes, as there are not many teams at the end of the first round in need of a running back.
However, the fact remains that Georgia running back D’Andre Swift is the best talent and has the most upside of any guy in this class. Swift is explosive and is also a great receiver out of the backfield. He does not have the wear and tear on his body like Taylor does, as he has 486 fewer carries over his college career. In addition, Taylor was plagued by fumbling problems at times at Wisconsin, which could make some teams hesitant to select him early.
J.K. Dobbins is a back who is rising up mock draft boards. He is projected as a likely target of either the Chargers (No. 37 pick) or the Dolphins (No. 39 pick) early in the second round. However, there is also a good chance that Swift is taken in the first round before these selections. If he is not, the Chargers and Dolphins would likely select the better overall talent in Swift.
For a little bit more juice, bettors can bet Swift at -180 odds to be drafted before Taylor. However, I’d rather roll the dice with a better payout and predict he is the first running back taken overall.
Pick: First RB Drafted: D’Andre Swift -135
Team to Draft Isaiah Simmons
After a look at the top of the draft board, there appear to be just two teams in the running for Simmons: the Panthers and Giants. The Giants (+250 odds) have the first crack at him with the fourth pick. However, as bad as their defense was in 2019, it would still make more sense for them to draft an offensive lineman.
Giants GM Dave Gettleman has been heavily criticized for his last two drafts. Though he drafted the best offensive player in the 2018 draft in Saquon Barkley, that pick came under fire since many people thought using the No. 2 overall pick on a running back was not smart. In 2019, Gettleman shocked the NFL world by taking quarterback Daniel Jones with the sixth overall pick.
Gettleman knows he needs to make the most of Barkley’s talent before he gets up there in age. He also needs to be able to protect his second-year quarterback better so as to help continue his development. The Giants allowed 119 quarterback hits last year, the third-most in the league. The Giants are in position to take the best offensive lineman available since the teams drafting in front of them have other needs.
If the Giants take an offensive lineman, look for the Dolphins and Chargers drafting at No. 5 and No. 6, respectively, to draft quarterbacks. There is a possibility that the Panthers would choose defensive tackle Derrick Brown from Auburn at No. 7. However, every mock draft that has this scenario also has Simmons already off the board by then.
If the Giants pass on Simmons at No. 4, the Panthers would surely scoop him up at No. 7.
Pick: Team to Draft Isaiah Simmons: Carolina Panthers +185
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Second Defensive Player Drafted
In my opinion, the odds for Jeff Okudah to be the second defensive player drafted should be way steeper. Getting -170 odds on the best cornerback in the draft by far seems like an absolute steal. His odds are even more appealing when you consider that the Lions, who pick third overall, desperately need an elite cornerback after trading Darius Slay.
There is a possibility that Detroit trades this pick to a team looking to move up for a quarterback. However, their most likely trade partners are the Dolphins and Chargers, who own the No. 5 and 6 picks, respectively. If the Lions move down, the Giants drafting Isaiah Simmons at No. 4 is a possibility. However, the reasons why I think the Giants will draft an offensive lineman have already been laid out. No matter if the Lions select at No. 3, 5, or 6, they will get their man Okudah as the second defensive player taken.
Pick: Second Defensive Player Drafted: Jeff Okudah -170
Player Drafted in the Top 10 Picks
The following players are projected to be top-10 locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Isaiah Simmons, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jedrick Wills. That leaves just three players left to be taken in the first ten picks of the draft.
Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson is excellent value to sneak into the back end of the top ten. While many mock drafts are projecting teams to trade for quarterbacks, we should also be thinking about teams trading for coveted players like cornerbacks.
Many experts say there is a big drop off between Okudah and Henderson to the rest of the corners in this draft. With the NFL becoming more and more of a passing league each year, there is a premium placed on elite corners. Many teams that are drafting in the No. 11-20 range need a cornerback, too. Perhaps they pull off a trade and move up into the back end of the top ten.
Even if no trades happen, the Jaguars at No. 9 are a team that could use an elite cornerback, among other things. There would certainly be a hometown feel to the pick, as Henderson could stay close to his college roots.
One can get plus-money odds on this pick for a reason, as it’s not considered likely to happen. However, cornerback is not as deep of a position as others like wide receivers or offensive lineman in this draft. This bet is a bet that teams will consider position scarcity and thus select an elite talent early at a position that is not considered deep.
Pick: C.J. Henderson +185 to be drafted in the Top 10
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.